Thursday, 28 April 2016

2:30 Musselburgh Racing Tips(29th April) WEATHERBYS PRIVATE BANK BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF NOVICE STAKES

An EBF Novices Stakes over 5f 1y on good to firm going. Seven two-year-olds take part: five colts, two fillies. Two have made their debut. 

Quite an interesting heat. 

Kahrab is favourite on the tissue markets for Mark Johnston. This grey colt is an Irish son of Dark Angel out of a winning but a poor mare.  This March foal cost 110,000gns at the yearling sales after 88,000gns at foal. He is a half-sister to Online Alexander, who raced at Group class. The betting is often a good indicator to Kingsley House juveniles, especially with a number of strong form lines on the gallops. If weak in the betting it would be a concern. If strongly fancied it would be a positive. This colts holds an entry to race at Newmarket on Sunday. The stable has a good strike rate at this course. 

From a statistical point of view, a few of these horses in opposition could go well. It is worth letting the betting settle before jumping in because these early markets can be volatile. 

David Barron does well with his two-year-olds. His debutantes have a few interesting angles which I cannot really detail publically. Scuzeme is a son of Kheleyf out of a winning sprint mare. He was a relatively cheap foal at 11,000gns. The betting suggests this chestnut colt has respectable win and place claims. However, at these odds, probably priced to chance at 7/2 if not lacking value. I must prefer to bet Barron's debutantes at bigger odds as they are much better value with pretty much the same strike rate.

John Quinn is a decent trainer and owner Ross Harmon is no stranger to talented two-year-olds [El Astronaute]. The Nazca Lines is a February foal sired by Fast Company out of a winning mare who raced at Listed class. This colt was purchased by John & Sean Quinn for £44,000 at the yearling sales. His debutantes feature respectable win and place claims when fancied in the betting.

The nostalgically names Lomu hails from Keith Dalgleishe's yard. The stable have sent out a few juveniles and been placed. This son of Dandy Man was not sold [£14,000] when sent to the yearling sales. I would watch the betting for this juvenile and if weak best watched. The stable's debutantes feature fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less SP although based on statistics others are favoured. 

One of two fillies to take on the boys Red Savina is trained by Kevin Ryan who has been going pretty well this term. This bay daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 31,000gns at the yearling sales and a full sister to White Bullet. Nearly half of all the stable's two-year-olds start at 13/2 & less sp. They feature fair win and place claims but, in some respects, difficult to assess the winners from losers. If priced 12/1 nd bigger, best watched. 

Last but not least, the two form horses. 

Tallinski is probably a horse many punters will scrub from their calculation because he was beaten a long way in the Brocklesby. This February foal is deserving of more respect because he showed very good pace until tiring rapidly in the closing stages. This son of Mayson is out of a multiple-winning sprint mare. Mrs J A Martin has some good horses with Ellison and a £50,000 yearling purchase. The Brocklesby has been a decent guide to the stable's better juveniles in past years, many failing on debut and winning on their second start. This chestnut colt was well backed that day and doesn't lack for pace. If the soft ground on debut was the problem or he simply needed the run there cook be money for this horse and it might well pay to have a speculative bet with a view to laying if the money comes. Not without a fighting chance, especially if backed. 

The rank outsider *Roy's Dream may be worth a second glance. Kristin Stubbs doesn't have many two-year-olds but she, as did her parents, Linda and Bill, knows how to find a winner or two. This bay filly went to the sales but wasn't sold for £3800. She was nibbled in the market and had to carry 2lb overweight, which didn't help. Slowly into stride, there was little hope thereafter, although there were glimmers of hope. To be fair, she wasn't given a race. Stubbs do pretty well with all their juveniles second start and a number have been placed [winner, too] as huge odds. This looks a stiff contest which tempers enthusiasm but she may have each-way claims if fancying a speculative bet. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to asses. A number of these could be in their best betting guides which blur the lines. For that reason alone, I would wait for the betting to settle. If strongly fancied Kahrab should be respected. The entry for Newmarket adds to confidence. If very weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief. Scuzeme would not feature much value if priced about 4/1 although if a marked drifter but 10/1 & less would be a decent each-way bet. If Red Savina and Lomu are priced outside 13/2 betting guide I would take a watching brief. The Nazca Lines has fair each-way claims if fancied in the betting but others are favoured slightly better on the stats.Tallinski and Roy's Dream could be worth speculative each-way bets at big odds. The former  could be backed. 

NR - Roy's Dream