Sunday, 8 May 2016

1:50 Brighton (9th May) SKY BET NOVICE FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 5f 213y on good to firm going. Just six two-year-olds take part: five colts and one filly. Two debutantes take on a few fair types. 

Monks Stand could well take some beating. Jeremy Noseda's was relatively fancied on debut although perhaps a touch bigger price than most would have thought. This was mainly due to the hot favourite Kananee, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, who won priced 13/8f. Monks Stand is an American-bred son of More Than Ready out of an unraced mare. He went to the Keeneland sale but not sold for $40,000. After being slightly outpaced, this January foal ran on with purpose putting the third, Decedent Times who is no slouch, in his place some three lengths behind. Noseda is a rare visitor to Brighton racecourse, the first juvenile to race there in at least five years. This step up in distance will help and experience is to this youngster's advantage, especially on this course. Monks Stand has enough ability to win a race the question is quantifying the ability of the opposition.

I'm never confident George Baker's two-year-olds will achieve a great deal on debut . He does have winners when making their racecourse bow but most are in need the run, prone to slow starts and those who prove victorious do so when the race falls apart. Altiko Tommy is a son of Kodiac and cost 32,000G at the yearling sales. Best watched.   

Bonnie Arlene has been relatively fancied on both starts to date and finished fourth both starts at Ripon on testing going. This bay filly wasn't the most expensive at £24,000 and although likely to improve for this step up in distance needs to. In addition, racing against the boys doesn't make life easy. At relatively short odds, I would rather watch.

Richard Hannon field two here Mr Scaramanga and the debutante Control Centre.

Mr Scaramanga is a bay son of Sir Percy, costing 78,000E at the yearling sales, a marked increase on his foal price tag. He opened 9/4  but drifted to 11/4 second favourite by the start. Perhaps that drift detailed a lacking or thought he may need the run. A tardy start saw him outpaced while Awesome Allan & Full Intention led this field a merry dance and none of the opposition was competitive. The Chelse Thoroughbred Golden Gun syndicate will be expecting more and this March foal is entitled to improve with racing and this extra furlong. He finished in his own time on debut without being touched with the whip, several lengths behind Awesome Alan and Full Intention who are capable.The third, Dontforgettocall, wasn't disgraced next start. Mr Scaraanga is a difficult juvenile to assess. Certainly need to improve a good deal but not beyond the realms.

Hannon fields the debutante Control Centre who cost £35,000 at the yearling sales. This Irish son of Dragon Pulse is out of an unraced mare. It is difficult to assess this stable's debutantes and especially so when they have two entrants. The betting is the best guide and if strongly fancied would have claims.    

Vinnievanbaileys has the blinkers applied for the firs time and need to improve to threaten these. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. Monks Stand looks the winner on what we have seen so far and unless the opposition proves they have ability he will go well. Even money is probably priced to chance. Altiko Tommy, Bonnie Arlene and Vinnievanbaileys are best watched. The Hannon duo is most likely the real dangers. Hannon is difficult to assess and with two juveniles the problem is compounded. The betting is the best guide. Mr Scaramanga could improve a lot for his debut. It would be unwise to think his first race is a true reflection of his ability. The problem is trying to quantify the amount of improvement he will make. If betting, I would go with Monks Stand but, perhaps, have a small cover bet on Mr Scaramanga just in case he flashes that golden gun.