Tuesday, 3 May 2016

2:20 Brighton Racing Tips (3rd May) VEOLIA - OFFICIAL RECYCLING PARTNER NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Sutter County trained by Mark Johnston
A Novice Stakes over 5f 59y on good going. Five two-year-olds, all raced. One winner carrying a 4lb penalty and a few fair juveniles competing this Class 5.

Tomily is a bonny colt for Richard Hannon, running in the Des Anderson silks. This son of Canford Cliffs has been fancied on both starts to date and done little wrong. He should have won on debut but a slow start and running wide on the bend made it a difficult task. However, this bay colt knuckled down to the task and looked likely to prevail but simply ran out of time. Once again, he ran a sterling race behind Sutter County [pitured] at Newmarket. Tom Marquand takes off a valuable 3lb and sets the standard.

It's difficult to assess *Monk's Stand, although he beat Decedent Times by three lengths and Tom Dascombe's charge has plenty of pace. Jeremy Noseda is a class trainer and his two-year-olds go well second start. This American-bred son of More Than Ready started at 8/1 on debut although that was mainly due to the competitive nature of the race rather than limited. It wouldn't have been the greatest surprise if connections thought he needed the run but this yearling $40,000 [not sold] made up for being initially outpaced and showed a very willing attitude. He looks the type not to turn his back on a fight and a worthy challenger to the favourite.

Paul Cole is a talented trainer and I'm sure he didn't send Assassinate to enjoy the Eau de parfum on his jolly to Chantilly. This Irish son of Tagula was fancied in the betting but finished a tailed-off last. Clearly something was amiss that day. This £33000 yearling purchase by the trainer's son made his second start at Brighton on much better going and wearing blinkers first time to no doubt make him concentrate on the job at hand. That was a bizarre race. The favourite had run terribly on its last start and, not being nasty, but George Baker's debutantes are very rarely fit or super talents on their racecourse bow, so it was a surprise to see this strong colt start the third favourite. He won with ease, perhaps as much to do with the two in opposition holding the egg and spoon respectively. I wouldn't knock Assassinate because he won well it is difficult to assess the limitation of a winning horse. He does have something to prove against these fair juveniles but may be up to the task. 

Mark Johnston has been in flying form and has plenty of form lines to know what is needed to win most two-year-old contests. Morning Suit is a homebred son of Street Boss. This grey/roan colt ran respectably on debut behind what may turn out to be talented juveniles. He showed pace before tiring. Has something to prove.

Jumping Jack looks easy to pick on against four promising if not talented two-year-olds. He is much better than seen on debut where he was coltish, inexperienced and unfit. This son of Sir Prancealot is a decent-looking colt and cost £35,000 at the yearling sales. The mare had a fair level of ability, especially at two and competed at Royal Ascot. I have no idea of how Richard Hughe's trains but this youngster could well improve markedly on his first show. Obviously, he needs to do that much to even makes these sweat but at huge odds, he isn't without some hope.   

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. Tomily sets the standard and will go well although there is little meat on the bone at 1/1. Monk's Stand will be no pushover. I liked the attitude of this horse on debut and he could well improve. Jeremy Noseda does well with his horses' second start. Once again, he looks priced to chance. Maybe value if touching each-way odds. Assassinate almost won by default at Brighton last time. The other two horses didn't really make for competition. Cole's juvenile needs to improve but is a nice physical type and I wouldn't write off his chances. Not sure what to make of Morning Suit and I would rather watch and learn. I'm intrigued to see how Jumping Jack performs. He has a mountain to climb in ways but that first run shouldn't be used as any worthwhile measure to his ability. I wouldn't be brave enough to bet unless someone went crazy prices on the exchanges but I certainly wouldn't lay this horse to lose thinking he is a joke. A watching brief. 

Monk's Stand NR