Monday, 18 July 2016

Tuesday's Racing Tips: 2:00 Ffos Las (19th July) TOTEQUADPOT FOUR PLACES IN FOUR RACES MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Good to soft going over 7f 80y. A Maiden Stakes and a tough heat for this Plus 10. 

Prerogative has been knocking on the door and a narrow loser on his last three starts, beaten by less than one length each time and defeated by talented two-year-olds. He has been given an official rating of 83 which illustrates his ability. Interesting to see if this step up in distance bring positive or negative fortune. This bay colt has done little wrong over 6f. 

Maths Prize and Naval Warfare competed in the same race on debut at Sandown over 7f  15y on good to soft going. Both were fancied in the betting and it looks a decent race. The third has been entered for a Listed race and this pair is clearly held in some regard by connections. 

Maths Prize is a son of Royal Applause, trained by Roger Charlton and owned by The Queen. This bay colt ran on well from the last pair and beat Naval Warfare who started favourite that day. 

It will be interesting to see whether Andrew Balding's charge can reverse the form. This son of Born To Sea cost 105,00E at the yearling sales and owned by Qatar Racing Ltd. With Maths Prize holding an advantage on debut the odds of Naval Warfare could well be bigger due to a psychological theory called the Contrast Principle. From a statistical point of view both have similar chances. Both colts look as though they have ample improvement to come and it will be intriguing to see which is better. 

William Muir doesn't win too many races with debutantes but it isn't beyond the realms. Saying that, Peace And Plenty will need to be very good to cast a shadow over those mentioned. The Muir Racing Partnership have done very well with their juveniles of past and they are very selective with their purchases. This son of Exceed And Excell cost 120,000G and purchased by the trainer. A horse I would watch carefully today and odds of 25/1 may look big if threatening the major contenders. Muir's two-year-olds often go well second start and potentially a smart prospect bred by Newsells Park Stud. 

Our Boy has a glimmer of ability but may play third or fourth fiddle to these. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. Prerogative sets the standard via proven form although he may struggle to cope with the two favourites if they are as good as I presume connections consider. Not sure if this extra furlong will help in more testing conditions. If it does, he will be no pushover. For most punters, this will be a match between Maths Prize and Naval Warfare. Charlton's juvenile beat Balding's that day so perhaps it will be more of the same. That's the question. Maths Prize is likely to be about even money favourite while Naval Warfare could be an each-way bet. Both are likely to improve so we are trying to measure that quantitatively. As stated, a defeated horse when re-opposing is often over priced and that could well be the case for Naval Warfare. I would be tempted to bet each-way if the odds are available and consider this a no-lose bet if placed and cross my fingers for more. I respect the chances of Maths Prize but whether taking such a short price would give a long term profit I would have my doubts. Time will tell. Peace And Plenty is worthy of note for the future.