Wednesday, 10 August 2016

1:50 Beverley 2YO Racing Tips (11th Aug) RACING UK HD EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Fillies' Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on good to firm going. A busy day so I will try to keep this shortish and sweet. I struggle to keep this info brief as I'm a consummate professional. 

The betting would suggest this is a three-horse race. I would agree. 

Street Jazz has shown a glimmer of ability for James Givens on her two starts to date. I prefer others although it is beyond the realms she sneaks a place. I would suspect she will run on and could be outpaced.

Hugo Palmer has a tremendous string of juveniles and Bithynia has been short priced on both her starts to date. This daughter of Kodiac was an expensive breeze-up purchase at 210,000G. This bay was made 11/8f on debut at Sandown, running against the rail, held every chance but outpaced in the closing stages by the talented Grizzel, while Naafer, second, has won since. Next start, Bithynia stepped up an extra furlong in a hot maiden at Goodwood where the winning prize money topped £12,000. Racing in the familiar silks of owner V I Araci, this April foal was much too keen, finding herself off the lead, and then when she did hit the front paid for those earlier exertions tired into 6th. It is likely Hugo Palmer drops her back to the minimum distance to counter that keenness. By all accounts, this is a drop in class but there may be a couple of juveniles who have similar ideas. Interesting the trainer gives the apprentice a ride. Gordon, is in fine form so I would class this as a negative although it does suggest connections feel they need every advantage going and respectful that this juvenile will be worth a lot more money in future if winning. Definitely a horse with a touch of class but perhaps slight temperament problems. 

Mark Johnston has been outstanding these last two years since their juvenile string increased markedly and their training regime too. Queen In Waiting is very interesting and I have heard a good word or two about this daughter of Exceed And Excel. This grey/roan filly runs in the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. This homebred is held in some regard but it will take a bold display to win on debut against a couple of juveniles who will be primed for the day. A wide draw isn't ideal and she will be better over an extra furlong.

David Brown's two-year-olds have been in very good form this week and One Too Many, racing in the familiar silks of John Fretwell, is worthy of respect. A good draw in stall two. This grey daughter of  Zebedee wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Nottingham when comprehensively outpaced. The winner and second held the rest well that day and One Too Many was most likely sent out needing the run. This 30,000G yearling purchase stepped up to 6f next start and was made 33/1 racing at auction class. She led and was headed in the closing stages to be beaten by less than one length. By race type, this is a step up in class and you have to slightly question if the starting prize suggested such a bold show wasn't expected. The form of that race isn't easy to assess although it wasn't a bad standard. Whether this drop in distance will be positive is also something to consider. 

 Conclusion:  Potentially a three-horse race but a few question marks about all. Bithynia is definitely the form pick and this drop to the minimum trip shouldn't be a problem and help negate his keenness seen over 6f.  With the fear of Queen In Waiting, I wouldn't be betting at relatively short odds. Mark Johnston's filly could well be a class act and I know she is held in high regard. However, a wide draw is a concern. It is never easy for a debutante to start near to the wing. It is a blessing one horse is on her outside. Johnston usually has his better prospects fit and ready to roll but a tardy start could make this very hard work. I feel she will be a better horse over 6f but if as good as I've heard should take some beating if breaking on terms. If touching each-way prices it would make more appeal. One Too Many drops back in distance and whether that is an issue only time will tell. She looked to run well last time out but it is a puzzle why she started at such huge odds. Queen In Waiting is worth an each-way bet if available at each-way prices.