Tuesday, 2 August 2016

2:30 Bath 2YO Racing Tips (3rd Aug) TAVERNERS DISABILITY SPORTS MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Median Auction Stakes over 5f 11y on good going. Quite a restricted race type. Blue Suede has done little wrong in all four starts to date. This bay daughter of Requinto runs in the silks of Mrs. Julie Wood, who has been pretty low key this season, with what looks to be due to fewer juveniles in training with Richard Hannon Jr. Blue Suede ran well last time out at Sandown, as she did on debut over course and distance when priced 33-1. Looks the type to go well at 4/7 although you have always best be careful that any juvenile may regress after a few hard races as they can sour very quickly at times. 

Big Lachie may be a fair opponent as this son of Camacho is a big, strong colt a good-looking horse. I thought Jamie Osborne's charge ran well last time out over 6f. He was very keen off a slow pace and then flattered to deceive at Newbury in a hot nursery. Perhaps he is one of those horses who runs better in a higher grade or may just have made the most of a strangely run race. Looking back on his form over 5f I would have thought he would have a win. 

*Fethiye Boy hasn't been seen for over three months since running over course and distance. Ron Harris' two-year-old was well backed on debut and had plenty of pace but looked to struggle to the line and something of a short runner. Perhaps he has strengthened up and my be a better proposition with that absence. A difficult horse to assess but one that if connections wish to lead with not have many faster over three or four furlongs at least. 

Daniel Kubler is a talented trainer and he can ready a two-year-old to go well on debut. *Jack Blane is a home-bred son of Kheleyf. If backed it would bring more encouragement. 

Conclusion: This looks a pretty poor race to be fair. Blue Suede has proven ability and by all measures should win. The fear of all juveniles is that they may regress after a few hard races and it is often the case it comes when it looks like it's their time to taste glory. I wouldn't back this horse but I wouldn't bet against her either. Initially, I thought Big Lachie held strong claims here. A big, strong colt, he will make Blue Suede look inferior in the paddock and time may tell on the course too. He seemed to run well last time out over 6f but I wonder if he was slightly flattered that day. His performances over 5f are ok at a low grade but competitive in ways. Osborne does well at Bath and I can see why punters may be tempted to back this handsome colt each-way and hope if he doesn't ruin the favourite he, at least, gets second place. Fethiye Boy has pace to burn and may touch shorter odds in running if that is your thing. Jack Blane may have a chance if backed. On balance, the favourite should win this well but I wouldn't knock the each-way alternative on Big Lachie. I'm not greatly enthused by this race to be fair.    

* NR