Monday, 7 November 2016

2:10 Newcastle 2YO Racing Tips (7th Nov) PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH/EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on standard going. Eight two-year-olds take part with race experience. The betting suggests there are four main contenders. 

Robert Cowell has done pretty well this season and a few juveniles have proven talents. Desert Sport has raced four times and gone close in his last three starts. This Japanese-bred son of Hat Trick ran well last time out at Newcastle when runner-up over 6f furlong. Certainly, the third and fourth that day have gone well since. Interesting to see how this bay copes with a drop to the minimum distance.

Juveniles sired from stallions all over the world. Bombay Dream is a daughter of Australian talent Sepoy. This chestnut filly is owned by John Smith and race twice, well beaten in contests won by Eartha Kitt & Dubai One who are no slouches. Another who is taking a drop in distance. 

Flame Of Hope hasn't been seen for just over one month when making her debut at Catterick. This daughter of Dragon Pulse was a relatively cheap purchase at the yearling sales for 8.500E. David Barron's charge wasn't fancied in the betting that day and gradually weakened in the closing stages. That race may well have blown the cobwebs away and better could be seen.

Quite intrigued by Julie Camacho's Marseille. Owned & bred by Elite Racing Club, this beautifully bred filly is a daughter of Excelebration out of a talented mare Maralinka trained by Roger Charlton. This Listed-class winner, disappointing when contesting the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. Marseille is bred to be an outright sprinter and I expected a little more on debut. However, she was slow away and then keen but definitely showed signs of ability in behind. Bar the winner, the race may not have been a thriller and you will be banking on this bay stepping up markedly on that debut. To be fair, I think she needed the run that day so there is hope of much more to come. Camacho isn't known for debut winners and often slips under the radar as being less fashionable than most. It is worth noting that a significant owner can often supersede a trainer's reputation of not being known for talented two-year-olds. On breeding, this drop to the minimum distance shouldn't be a problem. Most juveniles are primed to run a big race on their second start and if breeding is anything to go by this filly has claims.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess in some respects. It looks out of the four so there  may be some opportunity for an each-way bet. However, you may want to bet late as it is sod's law one of these is withdrawn to make it two places rather than three. Desert Sport has run consistently. A good few are dropping in a distance which isn't always as easy as it seems because there is a marked different in pace from one sprint distance to another. Marseille is one of those horses if you bet you regret it and if you don't you do. There was a glimmer of ability on debut although well disguised. Camacho will have this well-bred juvenile ready for this and you have to consider this 5f will suit. I'd have a small each-way bet and just hope even if no superstar she can hit the frame.