Friday, 11 November 2016

6:15 Wolverhampton 2YO Racing Tips (12th Nov) 32RED CASINO EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Harba, William Haggas, Al Shaqab Racing,
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 216y on standard going. A thirteen-strong field. Quite an interesting race. The three major protagonists make this a fair line up. 

Luca Cumani doesn't have too many juveniles start short odds on debut, which suggests Gorgeous Noora is above average. This bay filly is a daughter of Raven's Pass who cost 370,000G at the yearling sales. She was made 11-4f when less than three and a half lengths behind Really Special. From a statistical point of view, these horses feature a fair strike rate although their strength is to be placed. However, odds of 11-8f don't offer a great deal of meat on the bone although I would suggest this February foal is very unlikely to be out of the frame.

Harba is definitely noted within the Haggas stable. This chestnut filly is a daughter of Frankel and one of few sired who has not captured the headlines by winning on debut. Connections expected much more of the 11/10f. Owned by Al Shaqab Racing, she was purchased via the sales ring for 300,000G. Racing keenly, to finish seventh or eleven was a disappointment. However, with over two months off course, this juvenile is back to make amends and it is very likely she is looking for that first win. Definitely, a horse that's held in some regard.

James Fanshawe is a talented trainer. Sitar wasn't fancied in the betting when making her debut at Nottingham over 6f. This daughter of Aqlaam is a homebred from Manor Farm Stud. She was left standing [almost] by Dreamfield when a 25-1 shot, running on in the closing stages to take the second spot. Just nineteen days later this April foal was made favourite to win at Leicester finishing third. It was a fair effort, but in some respects, a little less than her supporters anticipated. The first and second were both fancied in the betting and expected to go well so it wasn't a poor effort but, perhaps, a race you would have thought winnable. Has claims but may need to improve with a couple of live wires.

Conclusion: An exciting race. This looks to be out of the three. Sitar has a good draw and may be sent to the front if endowed with enough pace. I think Fanshawe's charge has to improve on that last effort. I would be looking at Gorgeous Noora & Harba. The former was fancied on debut and should progress. Cumani has very good place claims with fancied horses on their second start but they do often struggle to win. I'd be tempted to back this runner to be placed on the exchanges. Harba is a daughter of Frankel and a costly purchase. Haggas holds this juvenile in some regard and I would expect a bold show. Clearly, better was expected on debut but there may have been an issue. If drifting anywhere near an each-way price I would bet. Even at shorter odd [11/4] I would favour this horse over Gorgeous Noora but it could well be a battle between the two. Sitar will not too far away.