Saturday, 14 January 2017

2:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (14th Jan) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (3yo)

Andrew Rosen, Fashion Business, Frankel,
Not too many fancied horses here. In fact, three horses are prominent in the betting.

Ettu is trained by Jeremy Noseda, a handler who is a class act, and this bay daughter of Excelebration was a fairly expensive yearling at 100,000G. 

She wasn't fancied on debut at Leicester when fifth, priced 20/1.

This Marc Keller-owned filly caught my attention second start. She didn't look likely to hit the frame for most, outpaced at stages, but battled on well in the closing stages to take second. 

Punters got their teeth stuck into the bone last time out at Lingfield over 7f when backed from levels you devils to 4/7f. 

Ettu led for most but had no answer to Ed Walker's Sayem who may well be a smart horse. 

Noseda has stepped this February foal up in distance to one mile. Spencer takes the ride. From a plum draw, I can see him trying to lead. 

Could take some beating.

Blaze Of Glory is a son of Excelebration, a chestnut gelding, trained by Jamie Osborne. This March foal wasn't fancied in the betting when racing just eleven days ago but showed ample promise, especially for a stable who's horses tend to improve markedly on their second start. Another half expensive yearling purchase at 110,000E. I would be interested in this gelding to be placed or an each-way wager if the odds are available. For this to happen, we may need the favourites to be heavily backed. 

Roger Charlton fields an interesting debutante in Fashion Business, sired by Frankel. This bay gelding is, from what I can see, the first horse trained by this handler for Andrew Rosen who bred this three-year-old. The mare, Icon Project, was originally trained by Brian Meehan before racing in the US. She won three times, consistent through her career, including Grade 3 at Belmont Park before concluding her career at Saratoga at Grade 1. In total, she achieved earnings of £437,000.   

I'd imagine Brian Meehan would have been expecting to train Fashion Business. 

Conclusion: To be fair, this doesn't look the easiest of races to assess. We have three horses all priced around 2/1. I'm not sure if I'd fancy betting on any at those odds because to have one horse as a major threat at relatively short odds can be hard work and to have two could be challenging.

Ettu will most likely hit the lead from a plum draw, although you can never be quite sure what Spencer has in mind. I think this extra furlong will help. She is a battling type who will run to the line and may have been a shade unlucky last time to bump into a talent.

Blaze Of Glory would only come into my reckoning if drifting in the betting. I would hold more hope of this gelding being placed, or at least that is the strength of the bet. For that to happen there needs to be a weakness in the betting. Ettu and Fashion Business may need to be backed. 

Roger Charlton's hope catches the eye. Interesting Andrew Rosen has this horse with him rather than Brian Meehan. It is a slight negative that he has been gelded. This is a very well bred horse. The mare was a classy performance. From a statistical point of view, Fashion Business has decent win and place claims. It will be intriguing to see how he fairs in the betting. He may well be backed to favouritism or weak. For that reason, I would let the betting settle before jumping in because it might give an opportunity to bet each-way rather than win alone. 

In a race of this nature, I would be looking to bet each way. 

A fascinating race.               

NR: Pioneertown