Thursday, 12 January 2017

4:00 Newcastle (12th Jan) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+)

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 5y on Standard going. 

Nine runners, seven with racecourse experience, two debutantes. The two four-year-olds are huge odds so will be discarded. 

Crindle Car and Knightsbridge Liam showed little on the racecourse bows and best watched.

Mum's The Word will start favourite, trained by Richard Fahey. This bay daughter of Mayson has been kept busy with eight runs to date but yet to get her head in front. To be fair, she has been a consistent. Runner-up on three occasions, far from disgraced when unplaced at Listed class when sent to Chantilly, France. She ran well last time out over course and distance when a beaten favourite. Certainly, an official rating of 80 suggests the opposition will need to show more to deny this ninth time being lucky. A losing run of eight losses does bring concern at short odds. 

Karl Burke is represented by Nick Vedder. This 50,000G yearling purchase was relatively fancied on debut but finished last. This son of Rip Van Winkle finished third on his second start over course and distance. John Gosden's winner, Poetique, looks a class horse, which may have made Burke's youngster look, perhaps, worse. Nick Vedder is likely to progress with racing and could hit the frame. 

Moamar did little on debut, although that maiden featured a substantial prize, which may be a sign of some potential for this son of Sepoy. Considering he cost 300,000G at the yearling sales, connections will be expecting some return on their original investment. The early betting details this horse at 18/1. There could be some value at those odds, especially if pre-empting a gamble. If backed, it would be greater confidence. I expect this February foal to improve for that first start.

Mark Johnston is a trainer to respect with debutantes although they can be a touch tricky to assess in ways. Dance Dan Dan is a son of Danehill Dancer. This 60,000E yearling purchase races in the colours of Hussain Alabbas Lootah. Like I said, I'm always a touch reserved about betting on Johnston's debutantes but the shorter the price the greater their chance. 

With most of these having something to prove and the favourite needing to stop a long losing run, Paul Cole's Artic Sea may be a worthy each-way alternative if the price is available. This son of Oasis Dream was a huge 50/1 shot on debut. A 58,000G yearlings purchase for Hugo Merry Bloodstock [72,000G foal]. He is owned and trained by Paul Cole, who is probably waiting for that first win before finding a new owner. That was a satisfactory debut over one mile and you'd imagine there's plenty of improvement to come. If priced 13/2 & less could make a decent each-way bet. 

Conclusion: Not the most exciting of races. Mum's The Word will start favourite and on figures will take some beating. Whether you want to take such odds for a horse who has lost eight times on the bounce is a matter for debate. After so many races you have to consider whether a horse will regress. However, she has decent claims. Moamar may progress well for that first start. He cost a lot of money and I'd expect a better performance here. If seriously backed, I would give sound each-ways claims. Artic Sea was a huge price on debut but likely to improve for that first start. If available at each-way odds this would be my selection.