Wednesday, 24 May 2017

7:10 Kempton Racing Tips (24th May) British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

racing tips
An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f on standard going. 

Eleven two-year-olds take part: all debutantes bar two form horses. A number of leading trainers are represented including Sir Michael Stoute. 

Di Fede is trained by Ralph Beckett, who does well at this course. This bay daughter of Shamardal is owned by Robert Ng. This April fool is a good-looking type with some strength. She started her career at Salisbury which is often a fruitful track for this able handler. Punters probably latched onto this factor themselves as she was backed from 16/1 - 15/2. Di Fede wasn't given a hard race and ran to the line in pleasing fashion giving the impression this extra furlong would be ideal. With that experience, the trainer featuring good stats at the course, and low draw, she holds fair each-way claims. 

James Tate has a decent number of juveniles in his string and a few have run so far this season. In truth, I've noticed one or two running below par which gives slight concerns. Mraseel ran well enough on debut. The form has been franked although, bar the winner, the rest do not look supreme talents. This daughter of Sir Prancealot was very well backed second start when finishing fourth behind subsequent Marygate Listed Race winner Main Desire. That horse broke the two-year-old track record at Nottingham and is heading to Royal Ascot. The third horse from that race, Aquadabra, is fair and the seventh, Queen Penn, was runner-up next start. Mraseel wasn't far behind the leaders last time out and the form has some worth. This extra furlong should help. A prime draw is a positive.

I always find Richard Hannon a tricky customer with debutantes. The stable seem to train them to varying levels with their best fine tuned while others were given time and often need the race. Miss Mo Brown Bear is a daughter of Kodiac and £60,000 yearling purchase by Peter & Ross Doyle now in the ownership of Middleham Park Racing. A relatively wide draw isn't best for a debutante. The betting is the best indicator. 

John Gosden is a powerful trainer. He has been relatively quiet this early season with his juveniles but will be racing a few better type with a view to Royal Ascot. Sensory is a daughter of Dream Ahead racing in the silks of Cheveley Park Stud. A purchase price of 170,000G suggests they mean business. 

Interesting to see the first two-year-old runner from Sir Michael Stoute. He isn't a trainer to have many early juveniles and this may be with regard to Royal Ascot which isn't far away. Scandaleuse is sired by War Front bred and owned by Flaxman Stable's Ireland Ltd. Interesting to see Ryan Moore booked to ride. A wide draw may be negative although Stoute does well at this course. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less SP holds serious each-way claims. If outside this betting guide, best watched.  

The rest of the look unfancied in the betting. Klosters is a huge price for Roger Charlton which seems unusual. Maybe backed if fancied. 

Special Mission hails from Sir Mark Prescott's stable for Miss K Rausing. Has claimed if seriously fancied in the betting but best watched if not.

The others are best watched: 

Conclusion: Interesting. Di Fede showed promise on debut, giving the impression she will be much better on this second start. The form of that debut was respectable. I can see this horse going well and holds each-way claims. Mraseel ran well last start and time may tell that was a very good race. She was heavily backed which is a good sign for Tate's stable because they are confident. Both form horses have good draws and it will be no surprise to see then vying for the lead. Sensory & Scandaleuse are interesting. Both well bred and from stables who can win with horses making their racecourse bow. They should be priced 13/2 & less SP. It is likely they are starting at this time with a view to Royal Ascot, especially Sir Michael Stoute's charge. His filly needs to negate a wide draw which may be compounded by the form horses with low draws likely to set a bold pace. This turning course isn't easy to make ground and certainly, they don't want to run wide to gain position. It is a worry because if settling in behind, she may have a lot of ground to make up. It is unlikely connections will want to give her a hard race. The two form horses hold fair each-way claims but I would let the betting settle before considering a bet.