Monday, 3 July 2017

4:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (3rd July) British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes

Denford Stud
Been very busy of late hence a lack of posts last week. I will try to write a few posts this week and get off to a positive start here. 

An EBF Novice Stakes over 7f  36y on standard gong. 

Nine two-year-olds entered, four with race experience and a couple of winners. 

Tunes Of Glory was a rare debut winner for Sir Mark Prescott when taking a narrow victory at Lingfield. This bay colt is a son of Lope De Vega, owned and bred by Denford Stud. This April foal wasn't overly fancied in the betting which suggested to me connections didn't expect the win. Very few of their debutantes win at double-figure odds unless they are top class. Time may tell this bay has a touch of class. I am pretty sure that debut win came because the race fell apart with the odds-on favourite disappointing. This step up in distance will be much more to this horse's liking. A penalty will make life difficult. If priced 13/2 & less SP has respectable claims. He will need to be a talent to prevail.

One trainer who never lets the grass grow under his feet is Richard Fahey. Indomeneo ran behind subsequent Royal Ascot winner Rajasinghe by four lengths and battled hard to win at Wetherby second start. For an auction race, that was a pretty stiff contest. This son of Piccolo knows how to battle and a prime draw will most likely see a bold front-running display. He, too, has to carry a winner's penalty which is negated to some extent by an able apprentice jockey allowance. 

Another major contender is Ed Dunlop's Global Humor who I suspect connection were pretty convinced they would enjoy a tidy victory at Newcastle. This son of Distorted Humor cost 300,000G at two. He was fancied to win on debut. The 11/8f raced a touch wide and finished third. He lost little in defeat, just bumping into a couple of smart juveniles. On any other day, Dr Johnny Hon's horse would have tasted victory. Interesting to see Global Humor is stepping up to 7f. Let's hope he isn't a touch keen after facing the minimum trip on his racecourse bow, which can happen when increasing a trip by two furlongs. The trainer has a good record at this course. As long as he isn't too keen, I would expect a big run from this horse. 

Tom Dascombe's Kraka was fancied in the betting at 4/1 when making his debut at Haydock, a course the trainer does very well. This son of Dark Angel cost 130,000E at the yearling sales. A slow start, inexperience and trouble in running, gave the impression things just didn't go to plan. If they hold any hope of winning, I would expect this colt to be backed. That was a fair race on debut and to start relatively short odds suggests there will be better to come.

The others will need to show a fair level of ability to win this on debut and best watched. 

Conclusion: Intriguing race. I must admit, Global Humor catches the eye and if drifting to each-way prices would be a selection. The step up in distance is most likely a positive although stepping up from 5f to 7f does sometimes make horses a touch keen. With being off course for just over one month he should be fine. It was a surprise to see Tunes Of Gold winning on debut. It either suggests a below-standard race or a talented juvenile. I'm not quite sure what to think at this moment although this step up in distance is a favourable move. The winning penalty makes life difficult but if proving victorious here I would suspect we have a class juvenile. Indomeneo is a battling type. I thought he ran well last time because for an auction race it was a tough race. Kraka is worth watching in the betting. If you are betting I would suggest you take the early prices because if connections think they have a chance I can't see this runner starting at 10/1. I would go with Global Humor if touching each-way odds but I very much doubt that will happen. 

See more thoughts at Patient Speculation.