Wednesday, 6 September 2017

2:10 Chepstow Racing Tips (6th September)

Dr Johnny Hon
A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5f 16y on good going. Nine two-year-olds take part in this intriguing contest. 

Global Rose is trained by Gay Kelleway and held in some regard. This daughter of Dark Angel races in the ownership of Dr Johnny Hon, bred by Shadwell Estate Company Ltd. This bay wasn't overly fancied on debut at Windsor but we noted this juvenile who could quite easily have won if being a little wiser on her first day at the races. 

She was made a 2-1 favourite second start at Sandown and did little wrong when third just half a length behind May Girl. If available at each-ay odds, I would be interested in this horse's chance. 

Brian Meehan has been rather hit and miss this season with his juveniles but I suspect Mushahadaat is a decent prospect. This daughter of Invincible Spirit was made favourite on debut at Newbury over 6f and finished a creditable second. She was made favourite next time out at Goodwood. However, coniditions turned tretchourous with heavy rain and softening ground. The going clearly didn't suit Mushahadaat. From a statistical point of view, she held very good claims that day. I would ignore that disappointing effort. Meehan does well at this course, which gives confidence. It is interesting to see she has been dropped in distance. I'm not sure this will be to her favour. However, you have to consider the trainer knows best. It is possible she may be outpaced in the early stages before running on. 

Shaya caught the eye on debut. For the simple reason, I was very surprised to see a debutante trained by Roger Fell starting favourite. There must have been some confidence and money behind this daughter of Invincible Spirit. She wasn't disgraced over course and distance behind a few fair types at that grade. I imagine connections were hoping for more. Priced 25-1 with bookmakers at the time of writing. If fancied to go well, I would expect this bay filly to be backed. 

Charles Hills' Kodina wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Newbury over 6f on soft ground. She showed up for a long way and could improve for that first start. Interesting to consider how this drop in distance works. It could be a smart move. Hills' juveniles often go well when priced 13/2 & on their second start. I would use this betting guide to assess her chances today. 

David Simcock and Jamie Spencer make an interesting collaboration. Kaaba Stone is a daughter of Society Rock in the ownership of the Never Say Die Partnership. This bay filly cost 92,000 Euros at the breeze-up sales. She was ridden by Spencer at Ripon when a touch weak in the betting. However, it was a fair-looking contest and she ran well beaten by less than four lengths. Another horse who could go well if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Awesome has raced three times and showed ability.

Conclusion: A competitive race for this course. I would let the betting settle before making your decision and definitely take note of any changes in the going. I doubt Mushahadaat will start if the weather turns. Brian Meehan's charge is of interest. She has been favourite on both starts and that says a lot. Meehan does well at this course. Definitely, the horse to beat. Global Rose could make a fair bet if prices allow an each-way wager. She is one of the best juveniles in Kelleway's stable and going the right way. Difficult to know what to think about Shaya. It is very unusual that Roger Fell's charge to be so well backed on debut althouth the owner is into betting. Adds an intriguing twist. Kaaba & Kodina would have respectable claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. Perhaps, not the easiest fo races to find the winner. Let the betting settle as it may well detail one or two lesser lights. 

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