Monday, 23 October 2017

1:40 Windsor Racing Tips (23rd October)


A large field of two-year-olds. Eleven take part on soft going. I imagine the majority of horses will head for the far rail and a high draw may be favoured. 

This doesn't look the easiest of contests to decipher. 

Robert Cowell has a few decent juveniles in his string. Sovereign State may have given his trainer a few grey hairs because I'm pretty sure connections rated this horse. 

You wouldn't have thought so from his first three starts. 

This bay colt is a son of Compton Place, racing in the ownership of Qatar Racing Limited. 

This March foal was purchased by David Redvers at the breeze-up sales for £30,000. Cowell rated this colt early season. That point can be identified by two significant entries for the Brian Yeardley & Woodcote Stakes. It could be a negative that Sovereign State hasn't received any other notable entries since. 

He was relatively fancied on debut at Great Yarmouth but was left trailing behind Viscount Loftus, fifth some sixteen lengths behind that fair winner. 

Better was seen when making his return over the minimum trip at Sandown on heavy ground. To finish third, beaten four lengths, gave some hope that more could be expected next start. 

A dismal effort was noted at Pontefract. That really was a poor. Limited.

The trouble with this type of horse is where do you draw the line? It isn't beyond the realm that he simply underperformed last time out. It may seem unlikely but it isn't impossible. However, you have to be ever the optimist and trousers tailored with deep pockets. Sovereign State hasn't been seen for over one month which could detail there was an issue. It is intriguing to consider why this colt even starts in this Median Auction Stakes because a lowly official rating of 65 would seem to hold a greater advantage at nursery level. 

Is that a sign of hope? 

It could well be the case this testing ground is key. 

Sovereign State is priced 14/1 which looks a short price considering he has been up and down like a see-saw. If relatively short in the betting, it could be the case connections haven't quite given up the ghost.

If seriously backed, it would be a sign of confidence.

However, after disappointments, you have to be thick-skinned not to want to hold out for a bigger price. The fear with much bigger odds is that it may equate to a horse who simply isn't fancied at all. 

On balance, I would have to take a watching brief. Perhaps, if drifting to huge odds on Betfair, you may go for a speculative punt. I would consider the performance today, good or bad, will be a realistic assessment of this juvenile. If connections are hanging onto those early-season hopes he will need to go close.