Wednesday, 4 October 2017

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (4th October)

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo). Twelve two-year-olds take part over 6f on Standard to Slow going. Nine juveniles have race experience with three making their debut. A number of leading trainers. 

It is worth your while visiting sport.netbet.co.uk for the best betting odds.  

An intriguing contest. 

The betting suggests this is out of seven juveniles.

Roger Charlton has been a little quiet this season although captured the imagination which his debut winner Herculean. L'Explora is a well-bred daughter of War Front and expensive yearling purchase at $320,000. A relatively wide draw isn't ideal but a trainer who can go very well with fancied debutantes. 

Brian Meehan hasn't achieved a great deal this season. Mushahadaat looked a winner waiting to happen after a promising debut when starting favourite at Newbury when runner-up to Mayyasah. The betting suggested a big run was expected second start when made the jolly at Goodwood. The soft ground didn't help and I drew a line through that performance. Dropping back to 5f at Chepstow - favourite, again - saw another below-par performance. As far as punters are concerned, this daughter of Invincible Spirit has been a burning thorn in their side. This step back up in distance may help as well as a first start on the all-weather. A wide draw isn't good news. Cheek pieces have been applied to concentrate the mind. I suspect there is more to be seen with this juvenile but she has been hard work. 

Scandaleuse is a homebred daughter of War Front in the ownership of Flaxman Stables Ireland Ltd. Sir Michael Stoute's bay filly was fancied to go well on debut over course and distance but finished second from last. She needs to show more here. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less SP would register but if outside this guide would be a negative.

Society Lilly was a beaten favourite. This daughter of Society Rock was a relatively cheap yearling purchase at £32,000. She didn't achieve a great deal on debut at Ascot in testing ground. Perhaps that was the issue. More will be needed. If weak in the betting, it would be enough for me to look elsewhere. 

Andrew Balding is a capable trainer whose horses can go well on debut even at bigger odds. Silver Swift is well birthed in stall two. This daughter of Dutch Art cost £42,000 at the yearling sales. Would have claims if priced 10./1 & less SP, especially so if 7/1 & less.

I always find Richard Hannon a difficult trainer to assess with debutantes. No More Thrills cost 160,000G at the yearling sales so a pretty expensive buy. Worthy of interest if well backed. 

Chizz De Biz would be worthy of note if backed. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. I would let the betting settle before taking the plunge. It may knock one or two of these on the head. L'Explora could go well if strong in the market. If Scandaleuse, Society Lilly, Silver Swift & No More Thrills are priced  13/2 & less SP it would give some hope. If weak in the market I would take it as a negative. Mushahadaat may have ability but been a serial offender and I would take a watching brief although not surprised if sparking into life.