Friday, 1 December 2017

7:45 Chelmsford 2YO Racing Tips (1st December)

Red Cadeaux, Ed Dunlop
A Nursery Handicap with an official rating of 0-65. 

Ten two-year-olds take part at Chelmsford City Racecourse on Standard going. 

Nothing too exciting going on here although one or two horses have either been held in higher regard or regressed over this formative season. 

Conflagration has been a thorn in my side. This bay colt is a son of Exceed And Excell cost 370,000G when purchased at two. Owner S F Hui must be looking at this April foal with daggers drawn because this juvenile has been painfully poor on three starts to date. I'm pretty sure Ed Dunlop expected much more than seen. There is little doubt this horse has been doing much better on the gallops. He was fancied to go well on debut at Windsor when sixth of eleven. I had a bet second start and confident he would be placed, at least. I was waiting for something. Waiting, waiting...waiting. Then realised nothing was happening or going to happen! 

Irritating. 

I suspected Conflagration had disappointed and, perhaps, had an issue. I even had a bet last time out at huge odds. I actually bet early and really got the wrong end of the stick and then bet more to try and bolster the price. However, when the price drifted to 40-1 it looked very likely someone knew it wasn't the day. Amazingly, I managed to lay my bet on the exchanges (or most of it) at shorter odds in running. That felt like a win because I had dug myself into a hole. It just shows what can happen. 

He wasn't disgraced in sixth, not beaten a great distance. 

I get the feeling, connections had no interest in showing much on that third start because they didn't want to ruin a low handicap mark. I get the feeling Conflagration is much better than we have seen and this will be the day they should try. I expect to see a much more vigorous ride from Jim Crowley. 

So what do we expect?

Priced 100/30, a horse that has shown little, you have to take a leap of faith and betting on the possibility this colt hasn't shown his cards and he is going to place a big bet on this prial of kings. If this horse is ever going to win a race I would expect it to be today. 

Whether I want to bet is another thing. I wrote an article years back called: I followed that horse off a cliff. This could be that horse. 

If drifting to 5/1 or so, I may have a very small each-way bet. If it doesn't place and you hear an explosion...it will be me. 

Blimey, that is one poor horse. It must have a rating of 45.

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