Saturday, 18 June 2016

1:35 Redcar Racing Tips (18th June) EBF STALLIONS ROYAL ASCOT BETTING AT 188BET NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 6f on good to soft going. Twelve two-year-olds take part, a mix of colts and fillies. Morning Suit carries a penalty after winning last time out. 

I will try to keep this straight to the point as I don't have  a great deal of time.  

Slightly difficult to assess Morning Suit although a proven winner which means he is better than most. A seven-pound penalty is a fair burden and at short odds, I would be careful although respect this juvenile. 

Bahkit races in the familiar silks of Mrs. J Porter who has plenty of success with Alan Swinbank. Most of this trainer's juveniles need the run although they can win on debut if talents or fancied in the betting. The stable does well at this course. Probably best watched today with a view to the second start. 

Richard Fahey's two-year-olds have been running well and he fields two debutantes in the shape of Party Tiger and Snookered. 

Party Tiger races in the Andrew Tinkler silks. This son of Excelebration was withdrawn from the yearling sales. Snookered is ridden by a seven-pound apprentice and relatively cheap yearling sales purchase at 12,000G. I would favour Party Tiger. Fahey has excellent claims with his debutantes and one for the short list. 

David Barron has been in decent form with his juveniles and a few debutantes have run big races. Poet's Reward sounds familiar to me so I'm not sure if this son of Hellvelyn was withdrawn of late or I may just have noted this colt's name in the declarations. As a foal, he was sold for just 6,000G but purchased in May at the breeze-up sales where he achieved 75,000E. Breeze-up buys are often fit and ready to race. The stable have respectable win and place claims when fancied in the betting. 

Vaux is a fair horse trained by Ben Haslam. This gelding is a son of Sir Prancelot and ran a fine race second start to Cupacoffee who runs consistently. This juvenile is owned by the Ontoawinner syndicate who do very well with their horses. Vaux had no luck at Wetherby over five and a half furlongs. He reared as the stalls opened and lost many lengths. His jockey pressed on and this bay gelding got back into contention before tiring in the last furlong which was no surprise. He has enough ability to win a race and if starting on level terms could well hold each-way claims and have a fighting chance of the win.

Ann Duffield has a big string of juveniles although it usually takes one of their better two-year-olds to win on debut. They can go well when priced 13/2 and less SP. Bajan Spice is priced 12/1 [Friday, evening]. Best watched unless seriously gambled. 

Roy's Dream has run three times and after showing a tiny amount of promise on debut disappointed second start in a strong race for the grade. She showed ability last time out when stepping up to six furlongs over course and distance. Kristin Stubb's two-year-old could travel well but may find one or two better. 

Conclusion: I'm not sure whether the penalty will stop Morning Suit. I wouldn't bet on this colt at short odds. I like Vaux. he has the ability but had little gone his way last start. He does seem to have a habit of rearing when the stalls open which is something of a concern. He cannot afford to do that again today and it is slightly distracting to what look decent each-way claims. I'd be tempted to say bet in running to guarantee he starts on terms but you cannot beat the people with live streams on that front. I would give him a chance and hope he doesn't fluff his lines. Party Tiger should be respected and keep an eye on the betting for Bajan Spice and Bahkit. If they are backed to 13/2 & less they should be classed at threats. Roy's Dream may touch shorter odds in running although I feel something will be better when it comes to winning. Vaux would be a tentative each-way selection.