Friday, 8 November 2019

Alex Bird Vs Phil Bull - Professional Gambler Golden Rules

Gamble like a rhinoGolden Betting Rules - Alex Bird: 

1. Change in the going - no bet. From fast ground to soft turns the form book upside down. 

2. Take note of the over-round - the percentage bookmakers take out of the race. With the exchanges, this factor has been helped but on big race days - such as the Grand National - it can still making betting a bad deal. 

3. Bird loved a good each-way bet. He finds an 8 - 10 horse maiden and takes advantage, especially if the favourite was odds-on by betting on the second or third fav. He combines the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets. 

4. He'd note good apprentices. A good apprentice with a 7lb claim can be worth a few lengths. 

5. Don't be first show - the majority of runners drift in the betting from the first show. Taking second show prices will increase your winnings by 10% over a season. 

6. Bird didn't like handicaps. 

7. Also, never bet in three-year-old maidens, particularly those only for fillies.

In association with professionalgamblers.co.uk 

Golden Betting Rules - Phil Bull 

1. Temperament is vital - winning and losing. Treat them the same! Long term counts. 

2. Study the form the same for each race. Don't search for bets - a no bet is a no bet.

3. It's an old maxim  - never bet more than you can afford to lose. Don't attempt to make your fortune in a day.

4. Bet when the odds value. If you think a horse should be 7/1 if its 2/1 don't back it, but if its 10/1 bet. If correct long term, you will make a profit.

5. Don't follow tipsters - work hard to find your own angle (it's not simple). 

6. Never bet a horse ante-post unless you now it will definitely run.

7. Don't bet each-way in either race with big fields or handicaps. One-fifth of the odds is not good value.

Sunday, 27 October 2019

Are You Confident Betting 2YO Horses On Heavy Going?


Every day it's raining. The weatherman calls it precipitation - I call it a pain in the arse!

Over the weekend, Newbury and Doncaster went amiss due to abandonments. The going stick went right up to the handle. 

I'm not sure if it was a blessing or a curse. Do you like betting on very testing going? Betting on my niche of two-year-old horse racing it feels like hard work. It's like donning your wellington boots and literally getting stuck in the mud. The problem with betting on juvenile horse racing is the unknown about so many aspects of these young horses. Sure, you may be convinced on breeding the horse will run on the ground. But until it is proven, we can never be totally sure. 

So should we bet on the testing ground?

I am careful. I always associate soft with big-priced winners. I'm not sure if that is statistically true. However, it always feels that way. It is enough for me to be extra careful with betting on horses at short odds. The trouble with favourite on testing going is that most trainers instruct the jockey to make the most of their experience. This makes perfect logic. But there's a problem with this approach. 

Can you see what it could be?

The trouble with leading or racing prominently when racing on soft going is that many jockeys go a stride too fast. This is a disaster waiting to happen. If they go too fast for conditions the horse, however good, is unlikely to win. In fact, they are likely to tire quickly and fade out of contention. 

When racing on the testing ground it is wise for a trainer to instruct the jockey to sit off the pace. 

I saw a couple of examples of 2yo horses racing a stride too quick at Great Yarmouth. In fact, it was a couple of short-priced favourites. They looked to be going well until the furlong pole when they dropped back like they had been shot. Both finished down the field. I'm confident these horses will show better form on better conditions. 

So I would always be careful when it's raining cats and dogs. 

When betting on favourites you are chancing your luck with a double gamble. Not only winning the race but will the horse be given a poor ride or even go on the going?

Thursday, 24 October 2019

Thursday's Racing Tips (24th October)

Just a quick look at today's tips. 

After yesterday's bonanza of two-year-old racing, things have quietened down a touch. I'm not sorry to see it either as I don't enjoy too much racing on any given day. 

5:30 Chelmsford - 

I don't imagine it will do too much but Abnaa is interesting. Brian Meehan's charge has been quite fancied on both starts to date and disappointed last time out. It was either a below-par effort or the horse has limited ability. It is priced at about 30 on the exchanges. A wide draw is far from ideal and any horse running on its third start is prone to running no race to get a decent handicap mark. However, saying all that, it will be interesting to see if Abnaa has a fighting chance at huge odds. I may have a few quid on and hope this son of Dark Angel is backed. 

6:15 Wolverhampton - 

Simon Crisford has a couple of chances today. Abwaaq is a good-looking son of More Than Ready. He ran in the same race which Abnaa disappointed, the day Hamdan Al Maktoum had three juveniles racing. Abwaaq was a touch keen and showing inexperience but ran on in the closing stages to finish third. 

6:45 Wolverhampton - 

Crisford has another juvenile making its second start. Arij didn't achieve a great deal on debut when starting 8/1. This 100,000 guinea purchase ran as if needing the experience and could well show more today. 

Monday, 14 October 2019

How to win at gambling by knowing your niche

Gambling. It is a subject that probably puzzles as much as it fascinates. 

Let's face it, most people enjoy a bet. I guess most wagers could be termed ''fun bets''. This would be described as a throwaway bet or betting with your emotions. For the buzz. Backing your favourite football team in a local derby, place a pony each-way on a horse you have a part share, perhaps you feel it in your bones. 

Each to their own. It's your money, so do as you please. It's good up to a point, hey. 

But what if you really want to make money gambling? Going from a gambler into an investor - akin to someone who makes a living as a stockbroker. 

It's a cliche but life is a gamble. Your insurance company is betting that you don't drop dead today. They have good reason to be confident. They are experts in their field. They make a living from selling you a piece of security which you are unlikely to need. When you need it you will find the expert isn't so welcoming anymore. 

The problem with betting from an emotional point of view is that you are likely to struggle with objectivity. Emotions fall short on logic. Have you ever got in a mood and then sat down afterward to realise what you said lacked any reason? It was fuelled by passion, anger, envy...   

Even the most disciplined of gamblers cannot escape emotions in some form or another and objectivity, even if based on scientific methodology, is a difficult subject to get to grips. It's a slippery eel. 

I didn't even want to chat about the subject of objectivity/emotions but all aspects of gambling are, in truth, intertwined with a myriad of variants. It can be a very difficult topic to even touch the surface. 

Let's talk about a niche. A niche is about the specific rather than the domain. 

If I said I want you to read a book because at the given date I will set you a test you'd probably be confident. You'd have an understanding of the subject. 

What if I threw in a couple more tomes: Mills & Boon, War & Peace & The Dummies Guide to Sheep Shearing? 

The chances are you would fail miserably because there's only so many hours in the day to revise, learn... Pass that test!

Jack of all trades - master of none. It's true. To understand more you need to focus on less because even considering the smallest aspect of your sporting niche will become a truly time-consuming endeavour. I know from studying two-year-old horse racing that there is never enough time to do everything. I often refer to it as being stuck on a conveyor belt. Why? Because racing dictates your workload. If you fall behind how will you ever catch up? If you fall behind you may as well give up. If you are lacking you cannot bet with confidence. You need confidence.

To be fair there are many different ways to bet, tip, win, lose, draw.... If you have a super-quick answer to those questions you are lucky. Because the majority of winners prevail for one very good reason - they work harder. If they don't work harder now, they did to gain their knowledge/skills/expertise. This foundation of expertise may start by pure luck or chance. However, it will end with skill and so many aspects that you never even realised were part of the professional gambler's life. 


''You don't, long term, get lucky and win'' 

You win because you know more. You have a greater understanding. Basically, you have learned how to become an expert. 

Even then, it is far from easy to make money betting. 

If you want to make money betting [investing] then it is important to enjoy your work, take your time to understand the subject matter which is likely to be formulated by trial and error. Find angles which you feel give some reward. Try to find something which is unlikely to be replicated by others. If it's ridiculously simple it is very unlikely to work. If you can find this information then others will do the same and probably better. Don't forget that your niche may need only be a slight variation to be successful. That may be enough to tip the balance in your favour. 

It's like the origin of species and natural selection.  No species have the same set or skills, habitats etc. They are the top [of their niche] because they have evolved to be best. You need to have a knowledge which means you have the skills to survive in the betting world. It isn't about being the best just that little better than most 

Good luck.  

Saturday, 5 October 2019

Shadingfield Lodge (Great Yarmouth Casino)

Shadingfield Lodge (Great Yarmouth Casino)
Well, it is that time again, when the sand in the hourglass sees the last few grain fall to close another Flat turf season. 

Well, nearly...

Myself, Gareth, Danny (and, hopefully, Tony) will be going to Great Yarmouth's final race meeting of 2019. I purchased the annual membership and just about got my monies worth although I won't be purchasing again next year as travelling to America means I'm missing too many days to make it pay. However, it is always good to support the local racecourses and Yarmouth will always be one of my favourites. 

So, we have the 22nd of October in our sights. Dan has booked a room at the Cavendish House Hotel and we have the family room at Nelson Hotel. It costs just £68 for three and breakfast included. You can't get a better deal and I really like the place. It's not exactly the Ritz but it is about two-hundred metres from the Grosvenor Casino. In fact, you can see it from the hotel room. 

Not sure if that is a plus or a minus! 

We are going the evening before the races so the casino will come first. It works well as it seems like two days of fun and it isn't such a tiring day with an early start traveling by train from March (the Fens) to Yarmouth, getting a taxi to the course and then having an hour or so at the hotel before visiting the casino for what could be a long night. Far too much for one long day, so this approach should mean more fun and more energy. Hopefully more winnings. 

To be fair, the casino is just a bit of fun. I don't bet no more than £50 and taking these free match bet and drink vouchers it is a very cheap evening. The food costs next to nothing and you sit in a resplendent room befitting of royalty. Shadingfield Lodge is a listed building originally built by J Cudden ESQ from a design by Morant. It has been noted as a place Edward VIII visited on seven occasions. It was purchased by Lacon Brewery in 1953. 

Here's looking forward to a great evening at the casino and day's racing. 

Friday, 4 October 2019

EmotiCoins - Play Now

If you love playing slots then Leo Vegas has something which may tempt you to beam like an emoji. EmotiCoins has all the fun of your favourite social media icons but you can win bundles of cash. 

No wonder our little character [left] has a satisfied look on his yellow face. 

So let's see what all the fuss is about and what do new slots online have to other players. 

You won't be disappointed.

What do you get?

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New slots have lots of online games covering varied topics. Whether you love cute slots, aliens, superheroes, movies, mythology you will be in your element. 

LeoVegas love to give you free spins. Let's face it (even a yellow smiling face) can't get enough of those free spins. 

Get even more spins when you make a deposit of just £10. Get an extra 100 spins for a tenner. 

Did you know? 

''92% of the world's online population use emoticons'' 

Who had the novel idea of EmotiCoins?

The idea was submitted to Microgaming Idea Factory Contest in 2016. 

Did you know?

Including emoticons in Facebook posts can increase the number of likes by 57%, and Face with Tears of Joy is the most tweeted emoticon with over 16.5 billion tweets to date. All this info was found in Emogi Research from 2016.

EmotiCoins gives a mixture of vibrant graphics, upbeat soundtrack and exciting wilds, brought to life by a crew of cheerful emoticons including favourite ones such as Tears of Joy, Kiss and Winking Face. 


A WINNING SMILE


   


Monday, 23 September 2019

Hold Your Horses

It's a common phrase but do you know the meaning?

The phrase is historically related to horse riding, or driving a horse-drawn vehicle. A number of explanations, all unverified, have been offered for the origins of the phrase, dating back to usage in Ancient Greece.

It's more than a phrase - It's a Virtual Slot Machine. A game that I've just got to tell you all about. 

Novo Slots website is brilliant at detailing the latest news, offers, free spins and everything you need to keep informed. 

This is more than just Gee Up Neddy to the Fair. 

So what do they have to offer?

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''Your best winning odd is the 200x maximum win on your line bet, and 94.99% as the average return to the player.''

If playing Hold Your Horses isn't enough to get you clip-clopping down the street read about a few slot players who won big in Vegas.

3-BIG WINNERS - VEGAS STYLE 

The Biggest Slots Win Ever!

A 25-year-old software engineer chance $100 at the Excalibur Casino on the Megabucks Machine and won almost $40 million. Wow!

Cynthia Jay Wins $34 Million

January 26th, 2000. It was a very lucky day for cocktail waitress Cynthia Jay. The 37-year-old hit the second largest Megabucks win in history. However, her life took a disastrous turn when just six weeks later she was left paralysed in a car accident which sadly saw her sister lose her life. 

Living For The Day

It's a phrase many live by. That's certainly what 76-year-old retired flight attendant from Vegas who only intended to bet $100 but went to $300. However, those extra dollars did wonders for her bank balance when she won $27 million.  

The Biggest Loser

Far from the biggest loser in financial term but a man many people would love to see lose his shirt rather than his ill-fated workers. Most of the world have heard about Robert Maxwell with his infamous use of workers' pensions. Easy come easy go for the late Maxwell when we went to a casino in Mayfair, London and lost £1.5 million in a matter of minutes when a few spins on the roulette table went wrong. 


Monday, 16 September 2019

What's the Strangest Bet in History?

Las Vegas Tattoo
Love to bet? 

In this modern age of gambling, almost half of the population love to chance their luck. Whether it's horse racing, football, tennis, a night at the casino or you can't keep away from those online slots. There's one thing you can guarantee - you're not alone!

Go visit Casumo Casino games and enjoy the casino lounge for 200% up to £50 + 20 Free Spins.  

I guess, the majority of punters bet on pretty normal stuff. You may find the odd person who specialises in something unusual, exotic or plain wild. They may keep it quiet almost embarrassed by their preoccupation. Let's face it, come 25th December, someone will be looking out of the window to see if it's a white Christmas. Get in! 10/1 winner with a few snowflakes falling from the heavens.

There must have been some very strange bets placed over the years. A population of billions of people on planet Earth. There must have been a number of very, very, very strange bets. 

Searching the internet we found a couple of bets that you may consider very strange if not a little humorous.

A Tattoo Too Far

We can't be sure this particular character won a bet for the most absurd tattoos but he was infamous for all the wrong reasons. This bloke's branding may not have come to our attention but for being arrested. The mugshot showed a man in his early twenties and inked on his forehead were the words: PSYCHO. On one cheek he had a tear and the other a heart. What are the odds of seeing some like that down your street? 

Clever Bet for a Big Guy

Betting isn't always about the fittest, strongest, best athletes. Surely the big, rotund bloke has no chance of winning a race against a young whippersnapper? As we know, the wise man builds his house upon the rocks. Which tells us something very important when gambling. 

The wise, intelligent and cunny often take the spoils. 

The story originated back in 18th century England when local butcher Mr Bullock challenged the Lord of Barrymore to a race. Mr Bullock was a big, big man. In this day and age, he would be considered morbidly obese. He liked his food and enjoyed pies. He was unfit, slow, and looked to have little hope of winning. 

The Earl of Barrymore was fit, ready and eager. He was an athlete. How could he possibly lose? 

Such was his confidence that he placed a huge bet on himself. He was a short-priced favourite. 

To make the challenge fair, Bullock asked for two conditions:

  • A 35-metre head start
  • He chose the course 
The Earl was so sure he would win, he accepted. No conditions could stop him winning. 

Mr Bullock, the canny soul, chose the race to be held in London with very narrow streets. With his 35-metre lead, his ample size blocked the Earl's path and there was no way he could pass the burly butcher who tormented his opponent by chomping on one of his pork pies as he crossed the winning line. 

Be careful not to gamble with a fat man with a pie. 


Saturday, 14 September 2019

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

betting, Uri Geller, Casino
It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 



''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 


''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''



I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gambler in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different from another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 


''I don't like losing'' 


I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 


''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book. It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent, you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

Sunday, 8 September 2019

When You Run Out Of Luck

What is luck? 

Definition: 

Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

Synonyms:  good fortune, good luck, success, successfulness, prosperity, advantage, advantageousness, felicity (I thought that was a woman's name!!!!) [Luck, B****]

Here's a few more if you're feeling inspired by the word: a stroke of luck; informal fluke, a lucky break "with luck you'll be in Marseilles tomorrow night"

We've all heard the quote: ''The harder I work the luckier I get.'' To be fair, that's being clever rather than lucky. It's like having a joke at someone who just relies on luck. 

Luck. It rhymes with another word beginning with the letter F. That's what most punters say when they rely on luck because it is akin to putting your faith in the Witched Witch of the West if you're hoping to swap those ruby slipper. She's more likely to smoke your broomstick than fill your pockets with cash or four-leaf clover. 

I know most people say to win at gambling it is all about skill. Yes, I know most people have not one ounce of skill [take my word for it] and rely 100% on luck. In that sense, they do get lucky on occasions. Have you found that alongside luck putting pound signs in front of your eyes it also has the affect of amnesia, because those lucky bleeders sure do forget their losers?  

Good luck to you. 

Anyway, luck does play a part in every aspect of life and gambling. 

I would rather be lucky with a bet to win £10,000 than one to win a fiver. And it can certainly happen both ways. 

Lady Luck. Who is she? I wrote a post musing over this subject: When Lady Luck Catches Your Eye.

Just imagine if you could buy a bottle of luck. It would be like Henry Cooper with a dab of Brut behind each ear. Even Henry could have done with a touch of luck when fighting Cassius Clay [Muhammad Ali] in London, 1963. The Enry's Ammer making the man himself (Clay) see stars. Unfortunate timing at the end of the round and Angelo Dundee stating years later than he made a tear in the glove, gaining four or five seconds of luck while he changed the pair. Cooper, always a gentleman said it didn't make any difference to the fight. I don't think we would have been calling it luck in this day and age, more like a scandal and unsporting behaviour. As they say, all is fair in love and war.  

Gamblers don't rely on luck to win long term but lady luck or the luck of the devil does come into play short term. 

Sometimes, we all need a touch of luck.