It's funny how horse racing works.
Sometimes things don't go to plan and one, two, three runs it still hasn't quite happened. Take James Tate's Across The Sea who was clearly well regarded by the stable. This bay daughter of Dubawi, in the ownership of Saeed Manana, was fancied on her first three starts but disappointed. Second and third start definitely muddied the water which led to an official rating of just 69, which is barely above the plating class. When you consider this horse had been given a group entry which details some merit. Anyway, compared to a Novice Stakes, a nursery looked a good alternative and so it seemed. Across The Sea won well by two-and-a-half lengths at odds of 9/2. Sometimes a disappointing run or two can be the best thing for punters.
An Auction Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good to firm going.
Fourteen two-year-olds take part.
A couple of outsiders that may have a chance. My brother is interested in Mark Usher's Padura Brave. This bay filly is a daughter of Havana Gold. She cost 11,500 guineas at the yearling sales. She started at 50/1 when making her debut at Newbury when finishing a creditable 8th, beaten just over five lengths. Not a bad looker for a filly. Usher doesn't go crazy with his debutantes and they often improve quite markedly for the first run. She is relatively fancied today but may drift a touch in the betting being from an unfashionable but well capable yard. A few places behind Tom Clover's Dawn Affair, so that could well be a positive and see the price touch decent double-figure odds. It's not the easiest of horses to assess but the family have seen a good few winners.
Half interested in Stuart Williams Gregarious Girl. This bay daughter of Gregorian is a decent looker, too. Racing in the familiar silks of J W Parry, she was priced 25/1 on debut at Great Yarmouth when ridden by Milly Naseb claiming a valuable 5lb. She was slowly into stride, keen, but joined the lead at the two furlong pole before tiring in the closing stages to finish last of seven. I see there has been a little bit of money for this horse backed from 25/1 - 18/1. Another speculative bet who needs a touch of faith to back.
The favourite, Lively Lydia, is trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton. This filly has run well on two starts and sets a fair standard from a plum draw in stall one.
An EBF Novice Stakes over 5f on good to soft going. Twelve horses take part. The majority don't hold much water.
Quite an intriguing race. Three Card Trick races in the familiar silks of Guy Reed Racing. Kevin Ryan has given this chestnut son of Piccolo a Gimcrack Stake (Group 2) entry which gives confidence he has ability. I doubt that lofty race is being considered for now unless he wins this in style. He ran well on debut when runner-up to Alan King's Dunkerron who has proven to be a talent, competing at Group class and performing with credit. Three Card Trick re-opposes Michael Dods' Bartle Hall, who proves a very capable filly when backed from huge odds on Betfair before running on well to beat Three Card Trick. Both ran well. Ryan's charge may have gone a stride too fast that day but could well have simply run his race.
Bartle Hall has to shoulder a winner's penalty which makes life harder. However, she could well improve for that first start. Her jockey wasn't holding back when whipping this horse so dramatic improvement may not be forthcoming.
Bryan Smart's Moojim is a hot favourite going very close to winning Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes. This Irish-bred gelding was 50/1 that day and by all accounts ran much better than suspected. I just wander if the race was run to suit him that day and may have been slightly flattered. Time may prove I have that completely wrong. However, it does take some explaining to way he struggles to win in normal races and looked limited at times.
Conclusion: Interesting to see how this pans out. There is a chance Barlie Hall will be outpaced in the early stages and run on with vigour. The win penalty will be a hefty burden. I wouldn't back Moojim because the price looks very short and I think he may have been flattered. This looks out of Bartie Hall and Three Card Trick. The latter has claims considering he has plenty of pace and no win penalty.
There never seems enough time with work, rest and little play. However, that will be changing later this month when a few of us venture to Great Yarmouth for a day at the races.
It's a superb location being on the Norfolk coast. Plenty of hotels, historic pier, fun fair, greyhound racing & racecourse - even a couple of casinos for those who love the spin of the roulette wheel. Talking of casinos, take a look at this bgo bonus and promo code. I've always enjoyed a little bit of flutter and a win is even sweeter than the rock on sale down Regent Street.
One thing to note, Yarmouth is a favourites course. In fact, so many jollies win at this track you need to take note of the horse at the head of the betting. Since the straight mile has been upgraded the quality of horse has risen quite significantly. Well, definitely larger fields. To be fair, this venue always had a reputation for quality thoroughbreds. Hardly surprising when the likes of Sir Henry Cecil frequented the course in the good, old days. A true gentleman, who took the time to chat with everyday racegoers who remember and cherish his words.
These days, a new breed of trainer walk the turf. Remember the late Michael Jarvis? His once assistant trainer, Roger Varian, is now a leading light and I keep my eyes open for his two-year-old debutantes. Few of his better juveniles win at big odds but a winner is a winner.
Taking a look at Varian's better juveniles, I've got a couple worthy of your time. Whether they will appear at Yarmouth is another thing but here goes.
Farnham
This bay filly is a daughter of Farrh out of an Irish-bred dam called Purple Tiger - who never raced. However, Farham is no slouch which a 110,000 Guinea sales tag details. This May foal is owned by Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to good horses. They had done well with Soldier's Call, a two-year-old trained by Archie Watson. In addition, to a decent pedigree, Farnham has been given a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry. This is one of two entrants for the trainer. The other horse Yourtimeisnow ran a cracking race on debut at Newmarket when third, beaten less than one length. This indicates the judgement of Varian and why you may be wise to put Farnham in your mythical notebook.
Here to a lovely day at Yarmouth races.
A ‘day out at the races’ is a common favourite pastime in Britain, with punters travelling to many of the fantastic courses all across the nation to place their bets on the horses at some of the best and most enjoyable festivals that the sport has to offer.
The Ebor Festival at York Racecourse is one of the last major meetings in the horse-racing flat season, and naturally there will be plenty of punters seeking the best tips for the festival at the end of August: The Winners Enclosure provide free tips and predictions on all major horse racing meetings and continue to provide some of the best insight into the sport on a daily basis.
Types of betting at Ebor
There are several different types of bets that punters could place at Ebor: the popular choice amongst racegoers is picking out a single horse in each race and backing it to win. There are ways that you can narrow down your selection for these types of bets – by searching for a NAP. Most tipsters will provide a NAP for each race day, and The Winners Enclosure’s NAP of the Day page provides their pick for that day’s racing. NAPs are important for tipsters in showing consistency with their victories, so it is unlikely that any NAP has ridiculously large odds, but the price usually accurately reflects their chances of winning.
Punters may want to spread their betting differently however, and for that there is the Lucky 15. A Lucky 15 is made up of fifteen different bets in one selection, consisting of four singles and trebles, six doubles and a four-fold accumulator. The beauty of a Lucky 15 bet is that with all the bets running alongside each other, just because you lose one part of the selection does not necessarily mean you will not get any returns provided that another part of the Lucky 15 lands. As such, there is quite a lot of potential for a Lucky 15 to land some big returns for punters. Any punter at Ebor that is looking to win big might find some fortune in a Lucky 15 bet.
Tips for Ebor
As previously mentioned, The Winners Enclosure is the best place to visit for Ebor Festival tips as the meeting draws closer. Odds can fluctuate in horse-racing, but as is usually the case with antepost betting, they can shorten closer to the race if big money is going on one horse – so if your plan is to have a flutter at Ebor, keep your eyes peeled over the coming weeks.
With the two-year-old season into full swing, we have our eye on a number of exciting juveniles that are yet to make their debut or relatively unexposed – basically winners in waiting.
On trainer who ticks all the boxes is Karl Burke, who does exceptionally well at Spigott Lodge, Coverham, Leyburn, North Yorkshire. He is particularly able at placing horses to win and his opinion is worthy of note. This stable likes to gamble so it is a good idea to follow the money, especially for those who like horse racing and betting. These horses are going to be winners for sure, and placing a wager online is a good idea for all horse betting lovers around the world.
Readers may remember his exceptional filly Quiet Reflection, owned by Ontoawinner syndicate. She proved a talented juvenile who went on to win the Group 1 Common Wealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
Commanding Officer
This British-bred colt is a son of Poet's Voice in the ownership of Clipper Logistics. This yearling cost 34,000 euros after a paltry sum of 800 guineas as a foal. Interesting to note that connections have entered this February foal has been entered for the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) in Ireland. While these future entries are no guarantee of ability there is a fair chance this horse is held in some regard. Stallion Poet's Voice was best over one mile while the mare never raced.
Kadar
This son of Scat Daddy was born on 1st January, so could be forward compared with his stable mates of the same age group. He is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited who are significant buyers and this January foal cost 700,000 euros when purchased at the breeze-up sales (2yo). His sales price rose markedly from a yearling tag of $195,000. The mare Kaloura, won on debut in France, winning twice at listed class in a seven-race career. Once again, this youngster has received a National Stakes (Group 1), which is to be run at the Curragh on the 16th September 2018.
Oak Park
The final two-year-old of the trio is Oak Park. This chestnut colt is a is sired by Sea The Stars in the ownership of Mrs Maureen Gittens, who is a loyal patron of the Burk stable. She has owned a number of very talented horses over the years including Mjjack, a big earning in the last couple of seasons. Interesting to note that this horse was not sold for 170,000 guineas as a foal but then sold for 100,000 guineas as a yearling (vendor). This colt is entered for the National Stakes (Group 1). Could well be visiting the winner's enclosure this season.
A few form horses of interest for the trainer with race experience:
Havana Ooh Na Na
I'm sure the stable considered this brother to Havana Grey a potential winner on debut at Hamilton. However, that was far from the case when this son of Havana Gold finished last of four over the five furlong trip. A well backed juvenile, this chestnut colt was slow from the stalls and struggling to find his stride or make any inroads on the eventual winner I Believe In You. Intriguing to note this February foal had been earmarked for the Dragon Stakes Listed race at Sandown – won by his full brother Havana grey. That race has come and gone, which was a wise decision for connections but it does give the impression Havana Ooh Na Na does have a level of ability even though his debut effort didn't inspire confidence. Definitely a horse to keep note of and could be a bet next start when I suspect a big run will be on the cards.
Blissful Beauty
This bay filly has raced twice and went very close in a competitive race at Deauville, France.
Karl Burke has done well with his two-year-olds this season with noted performers Life Of Riley, Little Kim, Shine So Bright & Comedy.
An EBF Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to firm going.
A competitive heat with a few horses looking to bounce back after touching the clouds or disappointment.
Brian Meehan's Boa Nova won well on debut but totally outclassed when competing at Royal Ascot in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). Has to carry a win penalty which makes life harder. Sets a decent standard.
Interesting to see Ed Walker has a few rare talents this juvenile season. Glorious Lover wasn't overly fancied on debut when ridden by Gerald Mosse. A slow start saw this British-bred son of Tamayuz finish well in third place behind Confiding, who is held in high regard by Martyn Meade. Glorious Lover cost 100,000G at the yearling sales. The form of that race has been franked a number of times. There is likely to be improvement to come. A wide draw is not ideal, especially if slow starting today. However, from a form and a statistical point of view this February foal has strong claims.
Another horse which could prove much better than we have seen is Kevin Ryan's Sense Of Belonging. This son of Dutch Art looks a bargain buy at 40,000G. He started his racing career at York, which is a racecourse Ryan often sends his better juveniles. After being keen, and held up in rear, this chestnut colt ran on with verve to finish third, losing by a couple of lengths. In some respects, the form of that race has proven fair if not anything special. He was all the rage at Hamilton when starting 4/9f. The going was soft and it was a trappy affair which may not have helped. A disappointing third place left punters scratching their head in wonder at what they had seen. A recent entry in the National Stakes (Group 1) gives hope that there is better to come. I am sure connections will be more hopeful here on this faster going and a prime draw may encourage a front-running performance (after being keen they may be more interested in hold-up tactics). Intriguing.
Hughie Morrison doesn't have many two-year-olds out early season and it is a positive sign. In fact, just about all go on to win in their formative season. Requited has enough ability to win a race. I had a bet on this son of Requited when making his second stat at Kempton. I got about 150/1 and half fancied my chances. A wide draw didn't help and being keen meant his jockey was at pains to settle. It is a shame he hadn't settled, because he ran on all to late to finish sixth but beaten just four lengths. Winning is all about circumstance. Not sure if this colt is quite up to the standard of a couple of these but I wouldn't knock this runner at all especially if settling, which could be the case on this third start. Could hold each-way places.
Swiper has been given a significant entry for Richard Hannon although not one of the stable's better juveniles. He was leading on debut when backed to favouritsm but faded tamely in the closing stages. Much more is needed here and unless in need of the run on that first start over course and distance looks to have something to prove.
I'm Billy Murphy and Superseded showed a glimmer of ability on debut but need to improve.
Deadly Force, Indian Horseman & Show The World are best watched.
Conclusion: An intriguing race. This looks out of four horses. Boa Nova, Sense Of Belonging are coming back from defeats. The former outclassed the latter needing to come back from disappointment. Both are potentially fair horses. Requited may struggle to against one or two of these but could hit the frame. Glorious Lover ran well on debut and Ed Walker's charge could be going places but a wide draw and a short price may not be value. A watching race.
Group Horse Daily is a great website because it details the best unraced and lightly raced two-year-old thoroughbred horses.
This post will highlight a few of the potentially better juveniles running on Friday.
2:30 Doncaster -
Simon Crisford has a few talents in his string and Kareena Kapoor made a worthy debut at Yarmouth when unfacied in the betting at 16/1. This daughter of More Than Ready cost 80,000 euros. It is slightly difficult to assess that first race. The winner, Pretty Pollyanna, ran well at Royal Ascot when contending the Albany Stakes Group 3. Crisford's charge was unlucky not to win as she was bumped about in the closing stages. If the price that day was a reflection of being slightly in need of the race, she should go well. A recent Listed race entry details the regard she is held. If, somehow, drifting to each way odds (unlikely) she would be a good bet. There are a few in opposition but I would fancy this chestnut to run a big race.
2:40 Yarmouth -
A small field but a few of interest. A competitive race which may take some winning. James Tate's colt Autumn Splendour has very good claims from a statistical point of view, although probably price to chance at 6/4. This Irish bred son of Dandy Man cost £52,000 at the yearling sales. He was ring rusty on debut. A slow start saw hot favourite, True Mason, a talented juvenile, storm clear while Tate's horse owned by Saeed Manana was playing catch up. In fairness, he ran on with spirit and will be much wiser.
This isn't a one-horse race.
Brian Meehan's *Mendoza ran well on debut and placed in the Woodcote Stakes, which is a strong race for this time of year. A tough challenger.
Hugo Palmer hasn't had too many juveniles out this season. A few have shown ability while others proved disappointments. *James Street is one of few to receive a significant entry which gives some hope of ability. This son of Gale Force Ten cost 130,000G at the breeze-up sales. It will take a talented, primed debutante to lower the colours of the two favourites. Not impossible but will need to be something special.
George Margarson does't have many two-year-olds in his string. The better ones are owned by John Guest Racing. Model Guest finished down the field when racing over course and distance on debut but showed a glimmer of ability before tiring. This daughter of Showcasing cost 135,000G at the yearling sales. A significant amount of money. She was slowly into stride on debut but loomed up at one point as though a serious threat. A 66/1 shot that day, she isn't without hope. I'm pretty sure connection like this filly. She was entered to run at Royal Ascot and a recent Listed race. May be big odds but far from a horse with no hope.
A tough-looking race. I would respect the chance of Tate's horse but I wouldn't be jumping in at short odds.
*NR
6:30 Chester -
Quite a restricted auction race. Axel Jacklin has received a couple of significant entries, stepping up to 7f for the first time. A short enough price here. Perhaps the extra trip will be helpful. A few hard races and just wondering if he is regressing. I wouldn't be betting at short odds. I can imagine this horse leading with Norton a fine rider around Chester. May be worth laying in running as a safety policy.
Golden Betting Rules - Alex Bird:
1. Change in the going - no bet. From fast ground to soft turns the form book upside down.
2. Take note of the over round - the percentage bookmakers take out of the race. With the exchanges this factor has been helped but on big race days - such as the Grand National - it can still making betting a bad deal.
3. Bird loved a good each-way bet. He find an 8 - 10 horse maiden and take advanatge, especially if the favourite was odds-on by betting on the second or third fav. He's combine the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets.
4. He'd note good apprentices. A good apprentice with a 7lb claim can be worth a few lengths.
5. Don't be first show - the majority of runners drift in teh betting from the first show. Taking second show prices will increase your winnings by 10% over a season.
6. Bird didn't like handicaps.
7. Also, never bet in three-year-old maidens, particularly those only for fillies.
In association with professionalgamblers.co.uk
Golden Betting Rules - Phil Bull
1. Temperament is vital - winning and losing. Treat them the same! Long term counts.
2. Study the form the same for each race. Don't search for bets - a no bet is a no bet.
3. It's an old maxim - never bet more than you can afford to lose. Don't attempt to make your fortune in a day.
4. Bet when the odds are value. If you think a horse should be 7/1 if its 2/1 don't back it, but if its 10/1 bet. If correct long term you will make a profit.
5. Don't follow tipsters - work hard to find your own angle (it's not simple).
6. Never bet a horse ante post unless you now it will definitely run.
7. Don't bet each-way in either races with big fields or handicaps. One fifth fifth of the odds is not good value.
When to bet or not that is the question. Well it can be. However, when you see an outsider running you have to be just as brave not to bet as putting your hard-earned cash on the line.
How do I mean?
Well. how many times have you looked at a big priced horses and fancied its chance but the odds were so big you were put off. ''Surely it can't win at 50/1?'' You're probably right, that it is unlikely. However, as we say, the favourite doesn't always win! Sometime crazy things happen.
I must admit in my time I have missed a good number of huge priced winners. In fact, they stick in my mind as much as those big wins. A few would have been my biggest wins. I've had horses win on the exchange at 200/1+ and somehow - thinking I was too clever - let them go by. A couple trained by Peter Winkworth almost bring me tears. All I can say is that I did take something valuable from those experiences. Even if it seem ''bloody unlikely,'' stick a few quid on so you don't look and feel like a complete idiot come the finishing line.
2:00 Salisbury -
A big old field. A couple of winners. Not earmarked for the Gain Railway Stakes (Group 2), Ireland. Certain Lad is obviously held in high regard. Similarly, Urban Icon won with plenty in hand at Windsor. A very handsome horse trained by Richard Hannon. A cracking purchase at £23,000.
Then we have a few form horses worthy of interest. Indian Viceroy ran a storming race second start at Leicester. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughie Morrison's charge hit the frame.
Even Keel was beaten by Urban Icon on debut but finished like a scolded cat.
And then we have the outsider with a chance! Perhaps. Stan Moore doesn't have many debut winners and this chatter here may be all he needs to keen the win percentage down. So why the interest in Warrior Display? This son of Dandy Man cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales and will need to be pretty smart against this field. The only hope is that Moore gave this Irish bred a Woodcote Stakes entry. It could be a telling sign this horse has a glimmer of ability. Whether it is enough to hit the frame only time will tell.
The question is this. Do you want to let a big price winner pass by? It may finish last and the £10 in your pocket has a smile on its face. But imagine the look on yours if you don't and it costs you a grand!
