Saturday, 19 November 2022

Saturday's 2yo Racing Tips (19th November)

12:05 Lingfield - 

 A open looking race. Cruella De Vill ran well last time out. Not been seen for a long time. Has claims although not great value. Finest Leader was a high stat horse last time out. A nice strong looking horse who showed up well before tiring in the closing stages. This six furlong will be much faster and it could well favour Charlton's horse. A low draw is a plus. Bookmaker's have James Ferguson's Beelzebub, who was behind Finest Leader, as a shorter price. Could well improve for the run and a costly purchase. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Fifty Year Storm was fancied on debut and cost a decent amount of money. Ran well enough that day if not going a stride too fast. The betting should tell the story today and has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Basically no hope of winning if over 11/1. 

7:00 Wolverhampton - 

Tagabawa is a high stat horse but no real value. Glorious Lion has a group entry and well backed on debut. It was something of a disappointing effort but better may be expected. Stepping up in distance and in a fancied betting guide gives ew claims. Roost was a high stat horse on debut but being a small race was probably forced. Difficult horse to assess but Beckett can go well sto especially if 13/2 and less sp. Galiilaeous was half fancied on debut at 9/2. A slow start gave little hope but a very well bred horse and costly purchase. Once again would have decent stats if backed to 13/2 and less sp but Beckett has had sto winners up to 40/1. Mr Mistoffelees was half fancied on debut and tailed off. However, there has been money for this well bred colt which gives the impression better is expected. Alex The Great was relatively fancied on debut when racing at class 2. A costly purchase and well owned. It isn't beyond the realms there could be better seen today although at this time a 33/1. Would have to be substantially backed to have any hope. To be fair, not the easiest of races to assess. The betting nearer the off may help but a few of these need to improve. 

7:30 Wolverhampton - 

Isle Of Jura is a high stat horse. Wide draw. No real value. Intricacy would be a high stat horse if 11/4 and less sp. Bohemian Breeze has a class 2 stakes entry. Run well on both starts and a touch wide last time. Looks the type to lead or sit handy and capable. Zodiac Star is a good looking colt. A touch keen last time out but a horse which looks capable and should go well. Luna Effect was a high stat horse last time out when keen and disappointing. May be capable of better but a giant price today which may be telling. Best watched unless you fancy a punt. The betting nearer the off may help pick between the lines. Doesn't look the easiest race to assess at the time of writing. 

Jason

Thursday, 27 October 2022

Thursday's 2YO Update (27th October)

2:15 Lingfield - 

Pherenikos ran well on debut at Yarmouth. A strong-looking race. No value. Berkshire Cruz was fancied to go well on debut and professional. Should improve for that race and appreciate this step up in trip. Has decent stats if 9/1 and less sp. Apex ran a fair race on debut. Has very good stats if 13/2 and less sp. Alzahir has a group entry and disappointed last time. A poor effort for a short price. Not helped by today's fourth start. Needs to bounce back and best watched. Pumalin has decent stats for debutantes in October but very few win over 7/1. Can pop up with a very talented horse. 

2:50 Lingfield - 

Peace Of Mind won on debut and has to defy a penalty. Liberty Mountain has run five times and you'd imagine struggle and an official rating of 68 is just about selling class. Evening Story needed the run and had a lot of work to do after a slow start. A decent bred horse out of a winning mare. Owners - the Middlebrooks - do well with Kubler and he has decent stats sto with horses priced 10/1 and less sp. Could go well. Powdering is a decent looking horse who I thought would run better last time but didn't. Wasn't helped by inexperience and struggling on the turns.Should improve with experience but may be a horse set out for nursery races. Only one horse I would be looking at here and that's Evening Story but needs to show more and being a small race might be forced into the betting guide. 

5:30 Chelmsford - 

New Definition is Tate's best 2yo and a very capable horse with a win under his belt and an official rating of 89. Has to shoulder a win penalty. Sets a decent standard. No real real value but respected. Casamigos was beaten by a narrow margin by New Definition. I do think Tate's didn't have the best passage that day and Casamigos ran poorly last time at Yarmouth. It wasn't a bad performance but disappointing. I would have slight concerns she can beat New Definition. Muy Muy Guapo was slightly keen at Windsor but ran a sound race. Looking to hold every chance and tired in the closing stages. A class 2 stakes entry shows the standing this horse is held in the stable and while no super horse has a level of ability to perhaps be competitive here. As always, betting is all about finding value. 

Jason

Monday, 17 October 2022

Monday's 2yo Racing Tips (17th October)

1:00 Pontefract - 

No great opinion. The favourites have had four race plus and that is usually bad news. Although they can win as favourites. Looks an open if not lowly race. 

1:50 Windsor - 

Proverb is a short price and carries the penalty. Radio Goo Goo keeps trying and had little luck but deserves a victory. Visor applied. Run seven times and which brings concerns. Probably there to be shot at but a horse with a chance even if the odds are against it. Lulworth Cove hasn't been seen for 142 days. Seemed outpaced over the 5f at Salisbury and may need further. If priced 13/2 and less sp would bring added confidence. Paul Cole's two-year-olds have been in good form. Desert Fighter hasn't been seen for 51 days and drops back in trip. A decent looking colt, and this could be viewed on race grade a drop in class, but need to improve a lot and a transformation for this lay off. I'm not sure if this drop in distance is a positive. The betting will be key. Has fair stats if backed to 13/2 and less sp but unlikely to win if double-figure odds.An outsider worth checking in the market is Rae Guest's Empire Of The Sun. Would need to be backed to 20/1 and less sp. Does well in the month of October with debutantes although the money needs to come. 

2:00 Pontefract - 

Listed race. Will be watching. 

7:00 Wolverhampton - 

A D banded race. The Thames Boatman makes his fourth start. Often a negative but when favourite a fighting chance. Clipsham La Habana is a sturdy-looking colt who ran well on debut when relatively fancied. Always a good time to bet, second start, especially when most have run plenty of times and looks a decent chance although no great value. Colours Of Freedom makes his debut for Archie Watson and would need to be in single-figure odds to hold any great hope.

Jason

Tuesday, 4 October 2022

Tuesday's 2yo Update (4th October)

2:35 Leicester - 

Power of Gold has fair stats but no value. Cannon Rock has fair stats if 7/1 and less sp. Marco Botti has been quiet this season but October is a month which sees the most debut winners for the stable and Daysofourlives has been nibbled at in the market. On a statistical front, he is very hit and miss on debut although features fair place claims.

2:43 Brighton - 

A lowly banded race. Strawberry Belle sets a decent level and been very consistent over the five runs so far. Always a worry a horse with so many runs will regress at some time and could do so at short odds. That's the gamble with a horse of this type. Sigmund ran well in the Convivial but fell flat second time out when odds on. Perhaps returning to turf will help. De Foy is a decent trainer and knows what he is doing so you would b hopeful of a better run today. Dagmar Run was half fancied on debut but run as if needing the race, out the back and running on with promise. Definitely looks more to come. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. 

3:18 Brighton - 

This looks an open race which may not take a great deal of winning. I do wonder if Expressionless has been slightly flattered by his debut effort and failing sto out may see a vulnerable favourite. Hurtle has had five starts and been thereabout but struggling to get his head in front. An offIcial rating of 66 is basically plating class which doesn't set a very high level. In truth, this would need to be a below par race to win. Mark Johnston can win on debut but most are priced 9/2 and less sp. Also, its not the best month for debut winners for the stable but in a race which looks so weak a debutante may have claims. The betting should tell more. Interesting to see Dee's Dream has been given two class 2 stakes entries. Michael Attwater can find a winner and this filly may have a glimmer of hope although needs to show much more today. She didn't run a bad race on debut when pretty keen and looked outpaced when upped in class at Kempton, running wide and leading before dropping back. May have a chance at giant odds (because of the entries) but needs a transformation. 

6:30 Southwell - 

Two narrow losses for Double March but no value. Although I do associate Woods doing well at this course. Castle Peak hails from a stable that have excelled this year and a horse to be respected. Very good stats if 11/4 and less sp. James McHenry ran well on debut and may have disappointed last time although that was a tough race with quality and I wonder if the soft ground slightly took the edge off Bethell's runners. Looks the type to run a race. Calypso ran a fair race on debut and has very good place claims if 13/2 and less sp.

Saturday, 1 October 2022

Saturday's 2yo Racing Tips (1st October)

1:36 Redcar - 

Ararat ran well on debut and should go well but no value at the price. Lady Mojito ran a decent race on debut. May well hold ew claims. Tipp Town has fair stats at 13/2 and less. In theory Design would be a high stat horse if backed to 13/2 and less sp. Doesn't look likely but worth keeping an eye on the money if it comes. Maltese Falcon hails from a stable who don't have many two-year-olds but interesting that she has owner Lady Ogden as a patron who can have very good horses. Menzies can win on debut and worth noting as a hope. Conclusion, no great opinion but interesting race. 

2:06 Newmarket - 

Classy race. Good to watch. 

3:17 Nemarket - 

Imperial Emperor is a high stat horse at 11/4 and less sp. Very well bred horse. A Dublin Lad has a class 2 entry and has high stats if 5/2 and less sp. Cost a lot of money. Best month of the year for Gosden with debut winners. Leadenhall was a high stat horse on debut when disappointing. Has two class 2 stakes entries. Has fair stats. Another trainer who has his best month with debut winners is Roger Varian's Luna Effect who would have claims if 5/1 and less sp. Interesting to see how King Sharjah goes as has 5 class 2 stakes entries. On stats Hannon is pretty poor at big prices on debut. Additionally, not a very good month for debut winners. Conclusion, the two favourites have good stats but not great value. Leadenhall needs to improve. The betting will help. 

3:21 Redcar - 

High class race. Will be watching. 

3:52 Newmarket - 

Military Order is exceptionally well bred. Has high stats if 6/4 and less sp. Enfijaar has decent stats at 11/4 and less. A very good month for Varian. William Haggas does well at Newmarket and this is a good month for him although, in general, a poor trainer to bet on debut. Very few debutantes win over 9/1 so the betting should help assess the chance of Laafi. Conclusion, the two favourites look hard to stop but not much value going on. 

6:00 Wolverhampton - 

Looks a tricky race and not too much value. Interesting to see Omniking has some entries but did little on debut and not seen for a long time. I wonder if he will come back to some level. No real opinion. 

Conclusion for day, can't see too much going on. A few high stat horses but no value. 

Jason

Sunday, 25 September 2022

Sunday's 2yo Update (25th September)

A few races today and a busier Sunday. 

2:15 Epsom - 

Class 2 stakes race. Will be watching.

2:45 Yarmouth - 

A fascinating race in ways. Rajastan has a class 2 stake s entry and exceptionally well bred. Not a bad month for debut winners and Gosden can go well at Yarmouth. Would have fair stats at 5/2 and less sp, especially so if backed to 6/4 and less although about price to chance. Roger Varian has been in decent form and Irregular Warfare cost a lot and well owned. A good month for debut winners and a hope if 5/1 and less sp. Simon Crisford's Knight has been given a group entry and class 2 stakes which suggests a horse with ability. I think the betting will tell the story here and would need to be 11/4 and less sp to be at best but would have excellent stats if it does. Aesthetic has been given a class 2 stakes entry and cost a lot of money. Haggas can be very hit and miss with debutantes but they can win at 9/1 and less sp. To add to interest John Ryan has given outsider My First Rodeo a group entry. He isn't the worst trainer on earth and has done quite well at Yarmouth but you'd imagine it would be a stiff task but never say never. So, all in all, a lot going on. The betting may help identify strength and weakness. Looks a race where two or three have turned up fancying their chances of a win. 

2:40 Ffos Las - 

She's Cool is a short price should get off the mark today especially if 1/4 or shorter odds. 

2:59 Yarmouth - 

Fariba is a winner and has a fair string of entries so even under a penalty should go well in a race that looks difficult to assess in ways. Disdainful has changed ownership and stables since his win and is an unknown quantity. There has been a bit of money for Daniel Kubler's City Cyclone and the stable can go well with horses sto at 10/1 and less sp. The betting may help. 

Jason

Monday, 12 September 2022

Monday's 2YO Racing Update (12th September)

A few races today: 

2:25 Brighton - 

Short priced favourite and little value at the top of the market. 

2:50 Thirsk - 

Looks a competitive race with Tabaretta, James McHenry and In These Shoes. All look decent horses. Not giving much away on the prices. 

6:00 Kempton - 

A tricky looking race with a couple of winners with penalties. The two favourite don't look much value at all and may be there to be shot at. I see Hill Cove was with Tuite and now with Portman. It was given a class 2 stakes entry with Tuite. Looked keen on debut and ran wide which didn't help. Not the easiest horse to assess but may have a glimmer of hope. Sto Portman doesn't have the best stats 13/2 and less 12% which is about 8/1 and 52% place which is price to chance. Interesting to see if goes ok after a long time off course. The entry gives a little bit of interest. Topo Chico was half fancied on debut but looked very inexperienced. May have a hope but not the easiest to assess. These two are most likely the only value against the favourite but have something to prove. 

6:30 Kempton - 

Quite an interesting race. Sir Mark Prescott's Alexandretta ran a brilliant race last time out and the form looks strong. You would imagine will take some beating. You couldn't knock Tom Ward's Lady Dreamer who ran very well on debut and looks likely to improve for the step up in distance. Adding to the mix is Zarga for Stoute who was a high stat horse when beaten favourite at Goodwood a class 2 race. It wouldn't surprise me to see Stoute's run better today as he does do well at Kempton and this turning course may help. Difficult to know who will win but I would favour Prescott's although stoutes may have some value if drifting a touch in the betting and have ew claims. But I'd have to see the betting nearer the off. I do think Prescott's sets a very good level of form.

Jason 

Sunday, 11 September 2022

Sunday's 2yo Horse Racing Update (11th September)

A relatively quiet day of racing after the recent absence. 

1:35 Doncaster - 

Not a race I would get involved but a race I always look forward to. I will be watching Malrescia who I think will give a bold show from the from. Whether she will be able to lead all the way I don't know but if available at 20/1 I will have a small bet and hope for the best. I think she will either win or unplaced. 

2:00 Chepstow - 

An interesting race. A band D. Commission ran well on debut at big odds a class 3 race over 6f. Looking very keen he tired in the final furlong. Dropped in trip, you have to consider this horse as a decent type. No odds and a slight concern he may be keen again and soft ground always brings unknown. 

Congress would have very high claims if priced 11/4 and less sp. 

Cluedo has a couple of class 2 stakes entries and progressing nicely. This drop in distance looks ideal and may have a fighting chance. I missed the bigger prices and if I can get 14/1 - 16/1 will have a bet. I wish it was an ew race with a couple more runners. But a horse that may have claims. 

Jason

Thursday, 8 September 2022

Thursday's 2yo Update (8th September)

A few races today. 

1:05 Epsom - 

No opinion. 

2:00 Doncaster - 

Sales race. Great to watch. 

2:25 Chepstow - 

Ancestral Land is a short price but entered and high stat horse. Looks hard to beat. Nanga Parbat has a listed entry and has ability but seems to be making hard work of things. Seemed disappointing at Windsor and fourth start brings more worries. 

2:35 Doncaster - 

Group race. Will be watching. 

3:35 Chepstow - 

Interesting to see if Look Back Smiling can win with the penalty. In general, Ed Dunlop's 2yos seem to make hard work of winning but this one has proven it can do that already. Tobetso was fancied on debut but out the back and clearly in need of the run and will appreciate this step up in distance. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Charles Hills Racingbreaks Ryder ran in the Convivial on debut and has high stats if 11/2 and less sp. They seem to either win or unplaced. Ralph Beckett's Promoter has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Rebellious Spirit would have decent stats if 9/2 and less sp. Mainly looking at Racingbreaks Ryder but would need to be in best betting guide to figure.

5:05 Chelsmford - 

Centrefold returns to try and make amends for a disappointing debut. Has a couple of significant entries and will be interesting to see how she goes. Funny Story drops back down in grade after disappointing at Listed class. 

5:35 Chelsmford - 

A big field. Beau Vintage has been backed on debut for Tom Clover's stable and they have been exceptional this season especially on debut. Hadley Park would have decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. King Of Ithaca failed miserably last time out as favourite and may, perhaps, come back to show more. A wide draw isn't the best starting point. Definitely needs to show more today and may have an ew chance if speculative priced. 

Author: Jason

Thursday, 25 August 2022

Thursday's 2YO Racing Thoughts (25th August)

1:00 Chelmsford - 

Chrystallium returns. Unfortunately a much shorter price unless drifting to the extreme. Interesting to see how it goes and sure it has ability but probably no value. If drifting to an ew price may be worth considering. So Chic has a class 2 stakes entry and a nice looking horse with pace. Not beyond the realms it runs a race. 

1:43 Ffos Las - 

A tricky looking race. I think a few trainers are heading to Wales with a win in mind. Greys Monument is a fair horse and fancied on both starts. Not much of a price but could run a race. William Muir's Mustajaab ran in a class 3 race on debut and a fair looking sort. Ran ok. Was half fancied in the betting for one of Muir's on debut. I imagine it will improve and could go well but no real value. Miyagi was pretty short on debut and ran a professional race. A nice looking horse. Likely to go well. King's Gem is a good looking colt and has plenty of pace. It was beaten well last time but if they are class horses it could hold claims here. Unless something drifts to the extreme and value I would take a watching brief. 

2:35 Carlisle - 

I'd keep an eye on the going as if it turn soft there may be non runners and the draw bias may change from low to high numbers favoured. Alpha Capture ran well on debut and looks a decent horse. No price but sets a decent standard. Lady Manyara has a class 2 stake entry. Was favourite on debut when beaten. May have excuses. Would have decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. James Mchenry is interesting. Given a Convivial entry suggests a horse held in some regard. Cost a decent amount and the stable can go well on debut, often substantially backed. Carvetti may not be good enough to beat a class horse but a pacey sort who battles well. An impressive looking horse with size and scope. Perhaps pushing your luck if betting ew but could have a chance at big odds if a couple of these are weak in the betting or lesser lights. 

3:10 Carlisle - 

River Naver has a group entry and a good looking horse. Cost a lot of money. The form of that debut is hard to assess with the easy winner but you have to give this horse a chance. Not much value at the odds but would have ew claims if prices allow. Atomic Impact is interesting. Did little on debut when unfancied but given three significant entries which suggest ability. Would have very good stats if backed to 13/2 and less sp. Pride Of Yorkshire is worth a mention. Was a high stat horse sto when disappointing, Since been gelded and had over 100 days off. May be a fair hope at big odds but may have regressed and have no chance. 

Not the easiest of races to assess and the changing weather is something to be careful. None runners can make betting hard work and soft ground brings concerns. Often goes for horses at bigger odds.