Saturday, 16 June 2018

Alex Bird Vs Phil Bull - Professional Gambler Golden Rules

Gamble like a rhinoGolden Betting Rules - Alex Bird: 

1. Change in the going - no bet. From fast ground to soft turns the form book upside down. 

2. Take note of the over round - the percentage bookmakers take out of the race. With the exchanges this factor has been helped but on big race days - such as the Grand National - it can still making betting a bad deal. 

3. Bird loved a good each-way bet. He find an 8 - 10 horse maiden and take advanatge, especially if the favourite was odds-on by betting on the second or third fav. He's combine the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets. 

4. He'd note good apprentices. A good apprentice with a 7lb claim can be worth a few lengths. 

5. Don't be first show - the majority of runners drift in teh betting from the first show. Taking second show prices will increase your winnings by 10% over a season. 

6. Bird didn't like handicaps. 

7. Also, never bet in three-year-old maidens, particularly those only for fillies.

In association with professionalgamblers.co.uk 

Golden Betting Rules - Phil Bull 

1. Temperament is vital - winning and losing. Treat them the same! Long term counts. 

2. Study the form the same for each race. Don't search for bets - a no bet is a no bet.

3. It's an old maxim  - never bet more than you can afford to lose. Don't attempt to make your fortune in a day.

4. Bet when the odds are value. If you think a horse should be 7/1 if its 2/1 don't back it, but if its 10/1 bet. If correct long term you will make a profit.

5. Don't follow tipsters - work hard to find your own angle (it's not simple). 

6. Never bet a horse ante post unless you now it will definitely run.

7. Don't bet each-way in either races with big fields or handicaps. One fifth fifth of the odds is not good value.

Tuesday, 12 June 2018

Outsider Alert - Warrior Display 50/1 (12th June)

Betting on the outsider
When to bet or not that is the question. Well it can be. However, when you see an outsider running you have to be just as brave not to bet as putting your hard-earned cash on the line. 

How do I mean?

Well. how many times have you looked at a big priced horses and fancied its chance but the odds were so big you were put off. ''Surely it can't win at 50/1?'' You're probably right, that it is unlikely. However, as we say, the favourite doesn't always win! Sometime crazy things happen. 

I must admit in my time I have missed a good number of huge priced winners. In fact, they stick in my mind as much as those big wins. A few would have been my biggest wins. I've had horses win on the exchange at 200/1+ and somehow - thinking I was too clever - let them go by. A couple trained by Peter Winkworth almost bring me tears. All I can say is that I did take something valuable from those experiences. Even if it seem ''bloody unlikely,'' stick a few quid on so you don't look and feel like a complete idiot come the finishing line. 

2:00 Salisbury - 

A big old field. A couple of winners. Not earmarked for the Gain Railway Stakes (Group 2), Ireland. Certain Lad is obviously held in high regard. Similarly, Urban Icon won with plenty in hand at Windsor. A very handsome horse trained by Richard Hannon. A cracking purchase at £23,000. 

Then we have a few form horses worthy of interest. Indian Viceroy ran a storming race second start at Leicester. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughie Morrison's charge hit the frame. 

Even Keel was beaten by Urban Icon on debut but finished like a scolded cat. 

And then we have the outsider with a chance! Perhaps. Stan Moore doesn't have many debut winners and this chatter here may be all he needs to keen the win percentage down. So why the interest in Warrior Display? This son of Dandy Man cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales and will need to be pretty smart against this field. The only hope is that Moore gave this Irish bred a Woodcote Stakes entry. It could be a telling sign this horse has a glimmer of ability. Whether it is enough to hit the frame only time will tell. 

The question is this. Do you want to let a big price winner pass by? It may finish last and the £10 in your pocket has a smile on its face. But imagine the look on yours if you don't and it costs you a grand!

Monday, 4 June 2018

6:15 Windsor Racing Tips (4th June)

Mrs Fitri Hay Racing at Windsor
What makes a good bet? 

In truth it could be many things. Most people would say: a good horse. That's is a positive starting point. It's a strange happening, but so often, when a talented juvenile should win by the law of odds, another star turn spoils the party. It just seems to happen. So, in my opinion, what makes a good bet?

It is definitely circumstance!

A race needs to have the right look, shape, call it what you may.

Looking at the 6:15 Windsor (Monday)

Windsor has a lot of talented two-year-olds start their career with the sound of the Thames in their ears. 

The Thorn Plant Hire EBF Novices Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 4) sees 12 juveniles making the grade on good going. 

I often let the betting settle on these type of races just in case one or two horses may be identified or ignored by market forces. They only help to degree. Taking a quick review of the race, it may be out of a handful of two-year-olds. 

Queen Of Bermuda has to shoulder a win penalty and take on number of colts. She will need to be a smart filly to do that. 

Paul Cole fields Duke Of Hazzard in the familiar silks of Mrs Fitri Hay. This 130,000 euro purchase has plenty of size about if although always slightly outpaced at York on debut, when pestered by his jockey all the way to the line. It was a fair effort in what looked to be a decent race. There isn't too many weak races at the Navesmire. This horse has respectable win and placed claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Charlie Appleby has a couple in the shape of Fly The Nest and Leading Spirit. 

The former has been fancied in the betting on both starts to date. This son of Kodiac cost 200,000 euros. He ran well enough on debut but favourite backers were left scratching their heads when 7th at Newbury. The 8/11f was slightly hampered and eased in the closing stages but had no reply to the first and second. Time may tell he ran his race and beaten fair and square. In general, the stable's juveniles have been disappointing.

Clive Cox has been firing in the winners and Mykindofsunshine was one place ahead of Fly The Next, when making his debut. There doesn't look that much between the pair although Cox's charge may improve for the run. 

The other horse owned by Godolphin is Leading Spirit. This son of Exceed And Excel made his debut in a hot maiden over 6f at Yarmouth. The winner, Legends Of War, trained by John Gosden, cost almost £1000,000, while the runner-up was a hefty purchase in the care of Roger Varian. I was left with the impression a number of trainers thought they had a hope that day. John Gosden and Qatar Racing Ltd, left with a smile on their million pound boat race. Leading Spirit is a good-looking colt and given far from a hard time. The form is still untested which brings some aspect of the unknown. Interesting to see how he fares over this drop back to the minimum trip. 

Conclusion: Circumstance. A few of these look fair juveniles and it is difficult to pick between the form lines at this time of year. I'm interested in watching this race.

Tuesday, 29 May 2018

What's the Strangest Bet in History?

Las Vegas Tattoo
Love to bet? 

In this modern age of gambling, almost half of the population love to chance their luck. Whether it's horse racing, football, tennis, a night at the casino or you can't keep away from those online slots. There's one thing you can guarantee - you're not alone!

Go visit Casumo Casino games and enjoy the casino lounge for 200% up to £50 + 20 Free Spins.  

I guess, the majority of punters bet on pretty normal stuff. You may find the odd person who specialises in something unusual, exotic or plain wild. They may keep it quiet almost embarrassed by their preoccupation. Let's face it, come 25th December, someone will be looking out of the window to see if it's a white Christmas. Get in! 10/1 winner with a few snowflakes falling from the heavens.

There must have been some very strange bets placed over the years. A population of billions of people on planet Earth. There must have been a number of very, very, very strange bets. 

Searching the internet we found a couple of bets that you may consider very strange if not a little humorous.

A Tattoo Too Far

We can't be sure this particular character won a bet for the most absurd tattoos but he was infamous for all the wrong reasons. This bloke's branding may not have come to our attention but for being arrested. The mugshot showed a man in his early twenties and inked on his forehead were the words: PSYCHO. On one cheek he had a tear and the other a heart. What are the odds of seeing some like that down your street? 

Clever Bet for a Big Guy

Betting isn't always about the fittest, strongest, best athletes. Surely the big, rotund bloke has no chance of winning a race against a young whippersnapper? As we know, the wise man builds his house upon the rocks. Which tells us something very important when gambling. 

The wise, intelligent and cunny often take the spoils. 

The story originated back in 18th century England when local butcher Mr Bullock challenged the Lord of Barrymore to a race. Mr Bullock was a big, big man. In this day and age, he would be considered morbidly obese. He liked his food and enjoyed pies. He was unfit, slow, and looked to have little hope of winning. 

The Earl of Barrymore was fit, ready and eager. He was an athlete. How could he possibly lose? 

Such was his confidence that he placed a huge bet on himself. He was a short-priced favourite. 

To make the challenge fair, Bullock asked for two conditions:

  • A 35-metre head start
  • He chose the course 
The Earl was so sure he would win, he accepted. No conditions could stop him winning. 

Mr Bullock, the canny soul, chose the race to be held in London with very narrow streets. With his 35-metre lead, his ample size blocked the Earl's path and there was no way he could pass the burly butcher who tormented his opponent by chomping on one of his pork pies as he crossed the winning line. 

Be careful not to gamble with a fat man with a pie. 


Wednesday, 23 May 2018

2:20 Yarmouth - Legends Of War 900,000Gns (23rd May)

Legends Of War An EBF Novice Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm going. 

Decent prize money of £9,000+ for this two-year-old contest. Two with racecourse experience and half dozen debutantes. 

A race worth taking note. 

It's not everyday you go to the races and see a debutante worth 900,000gns. For some money is no object. Legends Of War is a bay son of Scat Daddy out of an unraced mare. In the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd, trained by John Gosden who does well at this course and especially so with horses strongly fancied in the betting. I doubt connections would be too impressed with losing here but the horse doesn't know the price tag. 

Interesting that Qatar Racing Ltd have another debutante here racing in the second colours. Wiretap is a home bred son of Charm Spirit out of a winning [limited] mare. David Simcock gave this April foal a significant entry so he may have ability. Certainly, the second colours may push the price of this horse out to much bigger odds than normal. Jamie Spencer takes the ride. Simcock does well at this course. A horse that may have a glimmer of hope at a price. There is always the fear he will be in need of the run. Watching this horse in the paddock may answer that question. 

Charlie Appleby hasn't unveiled too many sparkling talented this year but one visited the winner's enclosure. Leading Spirit is a home bred son of Exceed And Excel out of a Listed-winning mare. The stable have a decent strike rate here with 5-19 winners in the last five years. 

James Tate has start this two-year-old campaign in somber fashion. A few juveniles have made their debut but looked backward if not limited. He is an able trainer who can spring a surprise at just about any price. Zmhar is owned by Saeed Manana. This chestnut colt is a son of Shamardal out of a 90-rated winning mare. With a number of his juveniles showing little, bookmakers may be pricing this his horses a little bigger than usual. It is interesting Gerald Mosse takes the ride. 

Dragon Kuza was seen just over 20 days ago when making his debut at Chelmsford. This Irish-bred son of Dragon Pulse wasn't overly fancied that day. The hood was applied and he was always struggling for pace. He had been entered for the Lily Agnes but that didn't seem to register as ability. This step up to 6f is going in the right direction. It is interesting to consider how this horse will go. The significant entry may indicate there is better to come. However, you need to take a leap of faith. This looks a competitive heat and not surprising to see him 25-1. 

Roger Varian hasn't sent to many juveniles out this season but another trainer who goes well at this course, especially with debutantes. This Irish-bred son of Lope De Vega is out of a Group placed mare who cost 500,000gns at the yearling sales. San Donato is one of the major contenders. 

Phoenix Star and Equiano Pearl are best watched. 

Conclusion: An exciting two-year-old race that will get plenty of press. With debutantes worth 900,000 and 500,000gns, respectively. Legends Of War cost, literally, an arm and a leg, and trained by John Gosden. Pretty sure this colt will be primed. San Donato is another expensive buy. Roger Varian does well here and I would expect a big run. Added with Leading Spirit, this is a competitive race which may be difficult to assess. Bookmakers aren't giving too much away on the betting of the leading fancies. Quite interested in how Wiretap goes. It is mainly to do with the significant entry. Could be over priced simply because punters feel this horse is here to make up the numbers. Dragon Kuza my improve for that first run. However, he needs to improve markedly. A fascinating race.

Friday, 18 May 2018

2:20 York (18th May) Langleys Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

2:20 York (18th May) Langleys Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
A quick look at Friday's two-year-old racing. 

2:20 York - 

The first two-year-old Listed race of the season. Sixteen juveniles take part over 5f on good to firm going. Just three debutantes take on a field of talented rivals including eight unbeaten horses. 



Those unbeaten:

Aerosphere - trained by Bryan Smart

Ran on well when making her debut at Beverley. That was an auction and more is needed. 

Carrie's Vision - trained by William Haggas  

Ran on well to win at Great Yarmouth. One of few of Haggas' juveniles to show much ability. The second place that day went close next start. Could improve on that start but needs to show. 

Daphinia - trained by Henry Spiller

Ran in a pretty ordinary race on debut, just holding the late charge of a horse which has been beaten easily since. Needs to improve a lot to win this and although open to more may well be outclassed.

Nicki's Angel - trained by Richard Fahey

A trainer who knows his horses. Ran out a ready winner on debut at Mussleburgh when a slow starter and looking unlikely to prevail. The second is a fair juvenile who won next start. Always a slight concern this horse may be slow away which would be a problem over this fast five furlongs. However, one of the major hopes.

No Lippy - trained by Mark Johnston 

This filly isn't that big but a wiry type who has plenty of pace and battles hard. She showed that same gritty attitude on both start and took the Lily Agnes at Chester, which is a fair effort. Will be with the lead and should go close. The kind of horse who will battle to put money in your pocket. 

On The Stage - trained by Ed Walker 

Quite fancied on debut at Kempton. Burst through to win in stylish fashion. Open to improvement. The form of that race doesn't look very strong with the second horse showing little on two starts before. A good-looking horse who is well owned by Lordship Stud. Could  have won very easily on that first start so difficult to knock.

Snazzy - trained by Charlie Fellows 

An early winner for Fellows who doesn't have many juveniles, so it spoke well to see this youngster out in March. Wasn't in the race for the most part and then hampered but still won in comfortable fashion. Not been seen for a while so I imagine she has been waiting for this race. In the familiar silks of Highclere. The form of that first start at Newcastle isn't anything special but Snazzy is open to more. 

Strings Of Life - trained by Charlie Appleby 

Ran well on debut at Newmarket. Trainer suggested she would improve a lot for that first start and heading to Royal Ascot. The form has been franked without setting the world alight. Respectable each-way claims. 

Debutantes:

Arletta Star - trained by Tim Easterby 

Evangeline Samos - trained by Kevin Ryan 

Orange Blosson - Trained by James Givens 


Form Horses:

Cotubanama trained by Mick Channon 

Deia Glory - trained Scott Dixon 

Lady Prancealot - trained by David Evans  

Signora Cabello - trained by John Quinn

Spell - trained by Richard Hannon 

Conclusion: A race where someone goes crazy fast. Plenty of unbeaten two-year-olds who could be anything. It is always difficult to limit a winner even if their form doesn't look much. In general, the fancied horses go well in this contest. No Lippy has pace to sit handy and battle to the line. She isn't the biggest horse but proven to some extent. A few of the other winners are of interest but they don't want to be slow from the stalls. If having to make up a few lengths the leaders will either need to stop or the individual a smart prospect. Not a race I would be betting simply because there are easier races to win at similar odds. Intriguing race to enjoy.

Thursday, 10 May 2018

4:05 Chester Racing Tips (10th May)

Charlie Hills - Chester Races
An EBF Maiden Stakes race over 5f on good going. 

A competitive heat,  this Class 2 contest (Plus 10) for those entitles giving a potential win of £21,828. 

Nine two-year-olds take part. Mostly raced with six colts and three fillies taking their chance over the turning five furlong where a low draw can be paramount. 

1) Anthem Of Peace

Went much to fast of debut at Windsor. Interesting Brian Meehan comes here and although a big price - lots to prove - could run well if learning from that initial start. 

2) Arcadian Rocks - 

Prime draw in stall (1). Mick Channon's team are in good form. Ran in a small but competitive race at Salisbury on debut and far from disgraced. Difficult to assess the form but a few nice-looking horses in opposition and worthy of respect. 

3) Awake In Asia - 

A wide draw isn't the best starting point for David Evans' charge. This son of Dragon Pulse has been placed on two starts, defeated by decent types. Beaten a few lengths and may need to find improvement. 

4) Finoah - 

Tom Dascombe sends a lot of two-year-olds here and this son of Kodiac didn't show too much ability when behind Awake In Asia but open to improvement on his second start.

5) Swift Justice - 

Another representative for Tom Dascombe and Manor House Stables. This son of Sixties Icon cost 50,000G at the yearling sales. Will need to be prime and clued up to win. Turning courses are never easy for debutantes. 

6) Ynys Mon - 

Charlie Hills is , much like his father, Barry, selective in the horses he runs at Chester. This son of Olympic Glory is a good-looking colt. He was well backed at Bath on debut but looked inexperienced and the testing ground didn't help. He ran much better at Newmarket but very keen. In ways, this bay colt did well to finish second, which shows a level of ability. This turning course may help save a little energy for the straight. Could well lead although that may provoke him to pull hard. It is always difficult to bet on a horse which displays temperament because you have two gambles to start with. I like this horse but at the odds may be best watched. 

7) Elieden - 

Another debutante for Gay Kelleway. This bay daughter of Camacho cost just £4000 at the breeze-up sales. This filly has a mountain to climb from stall 9. Interesting to consider she has been entered for this Class 2 race and also a selling race. This is a conflict of interests and a puzzle. I would take a watching brief. 

8) Lady Kinsale - 

Eric Alston is no stranger to talented sprinter but with very few two-year-olds in the stable they rarely achieve a great deal. This grey filly cost £25,000 at the breeze-up sales. Alston had her entered for the Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes but favoured this race. A wide draw makes this very hard work. 

 9) Wedding Date - 

Richard Hannon's filly made her debut at Brighton when a promising second behind James Watt, who is considered a decent type by Michael Bell. Difficult to assess the level of that form but worthy of respect. Draw 6 isn't ideal but may be ok for a horse with experience. 

Verdict: Ynys Mon is a decent horse and well drawn. The only fear is if he boils over and pulls too hard. It would be enough to put me off betting. 

Thursday, 3 May 2018

5:50 Chelmsford Racing Tips (3rd May)

Charlie Appleby A Novice Stakes over 5f on Standard going.

Seven two-year-olds take part: three with racecourse experience. 

Charlie Appleby was a real powerhouse last season. He started this campaign in good fashion when String Of Life won at Newmarket. Shellbrook is an American-bred son of Shamardal out of a once-raced mare. The stable have serious clout and reason why this horse is short in the betting. 

*Hard Forest has been kept busy this season having her third run for Mark Johnston. This daughter of Hard Spun has pace although looked a short runner in a couple of her races where the ground was on the soft side. This all-weather surface is likely to suit and a turning course should help save a little extra for the finish. Her form is ok without being anything special. A relatively wide draw isn't ideal but I can see her being directed to the front and get to the rail. Will make the most of her experience but looks vulnerable to a smart horse. 

Robert Cowell has had a lot of two-year-old runners this early season, so much have an increased string. A number have run well. He has two juveniles going here and both have some interest. 

So Hi Speed wasn't strongly fancied in the betting on debut at Newcastle. This American-bred son of Central Banker was very keen which didn't help his chances. This colt was with the leaders but faded in the closing stages to finish 5th. He had received a significant entry which suggests more is expected if settling. 

The other runner, Pocket Dynamo, ran a stormer at Brighton over five-and-a-half furlongs. This American-bred son of Dialed In was sent off a 14/1 chance on debut but must have touched odds-on in running and looked to be a likely winner until It's The Only Way gathered his stride and won well enough. He has since won again making it two from two, franking the form. A wide draw isn't ideal. He looked a little inexperienced on debut and wouldn't want to be running wide on the bend if trying to get to the rail. 

*One One Seven raced on Wednesday at Brighton and most likely be withdrawn.

Hugo Palmer is a trainer who should be respected with his two-year-olds and his first runner of the season ran on very well at Leicester when runner-up. Dragon Kuza wears the hood for debut which may be a negative. This Irish-bred son of Dragon Pulse cost 25,000G as a foal and presently in the ownership of the trainer. Drawn one could be a plus or a minus depended on his start. Certainly a few of the form horses may be eager to get to the rail which could find him struggling unless away well. The betting is the best guide. If weak in the market best watched. 

Richard Hannon has started the season in decent order with a winner or two. Jaayiz is an Irish-bred son of Zoffany and £68,000 yearling purchase. I always find this stable to predict on debut but the shorter the price the better the chance. 

Conclusion: An interesting race. A mix of form horses and those from bigger stables. It is likely One One Seven will be withdrawn leaving a field of six. Charlie Appleby's Shellbrook is going to start favourite. Whether he will be value is another thing. The betting is the best guide for Jaayiz and Dragon Kuza. The form horses have an advantage on a turning course. However, all have relatively wide draws. This may not be a problem but I can imagine some trying to get to the rail. It wouldn't be good news to be stuck wide on the bend. Hard Forest has good pace although looks limited in ways. This turning course will help her get home. Pocket Dynamo has the best form and quite a big horse. He looked a little bit awkward at Brighton but did well after being keen for much of the race. Should go well. So Hi Speed is open to improvement and may be something of a dark horse if settling today. I will be taking a watching brief.     

NR: One One Seven, Hard Forest

Saturday, 28 April 2018

5:45 Doncaster (28th April) No Lippy

Mark Johnston Horse Trainer
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 3y on soft going. 

Six two-year-olds debutantes take part. 

Mark Johnston has flown the flag for early-season victories over the last few years. However, this year hasn't seen such dominance with just one winner from eight juveniles on their racecourse bow. 

Blown By Wind won in stylish fashion at Windsor when cruising clear of the field. A couple of other horses may have been bogged down by the mud and could go well next start so keep an eye on horse Deep Intrigue who was noted by Group Horse

On the face of this race at Doncaster, it doesn't look the strongest of competitions. No Lippy is interesting for Mark Johnston. This bay filly is a daughter of British-bred stallion Oasis Dream. In the ownership of Barbara & Alick Richmond, this February foal cost 44,000 euros at the yearling sales. The mare raced 10 times, achieving 3 wins including a Group 2 success at Deauville, France. Also, runner-up at Grade 1 class at Belmont Park, USA. The mare didn't run until three and over 1m 4f.  She achieved total prize earnings over £150,000. 

No Lippy, has been noted by the trainer as a decent prospect so worth keep on the right side. The chances are she will not be much of a price for this race and for that reason I would advise taking a watching brief.

Thursday, 26 April 2018

A Guide to Surviving Early Season Betting

Surviving Early Season Betting
So, the Flat turf season 2018 is underway. 

Those preseason nerves, excitement and anticipation transformed to focus on the here and now. 

The two-year-old season started with the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, just like the good, old days. Testing ground conditions have made the turf even more problematic. 

Those first few weeks, if not months, can be difficult for any age of horse but especially two-year-olds. Considering most early juveniles will be cantering over the winter period the weather can impact on their progress. Also, the going, if running on the turf. It may be a positive if they have soft-ground breeding or a negative if not. Most trainers will not take a chance with a debutante because they want them to have a pleasant introduction. For many, travelling, a change of routine, different environment and hustle and bustle of the racecourse can be a frightening experience. 

But how do we consider betting early season?

I would suggest you take care. The enthusiasm for wanting to bet can be strong (and not always a bad thing). The difficultly being you don't want to look for bets but neither do you want to miss gilt-edge chances. That is the difficulty of guidelines because they need that element of flexibility which says: ''You should bet even when you normally wouldn't''. 

Reasons why you should be careful when betting early season:

1) Even trainers need time to assess the merit of their two-year-old string. Sure, they have older horses to run against and gauge the standard of, perhaps,  their most precocious juvenile. They need a few runners to appreciate their worth. It's a time even the best of the best hold their breath and hope. 

2) Assessing form. Early season form horses can be very deceiving. A horse finishes second and it feels natural to think it has ability. That may be correct or a big mistake. Many of these early form horses will start favourite on their second start and often poor bets with little value. In fact, many will be horrendous bets. Beaten out of sight.

3) Going concerns. As detailed above, these early months can see testing ground conditions on the turf. This makes life difficult on the day and assessing horses when making their second start, which may see them go to race on the all-weather. 

4) Betting on debutantes. Even after years of betting, I am fearful of betting on debutantes. You just never know how they will handle the day. As all the early races are over 5f, a slow start, running awkward on a bend or just very inexperienced may leave you with a mountain to climb. It is a strange fact, but often the best horses have terrible debut runs. I take note of favourites who trail home in last because they often fly next start. 

So what can we look for as positive pointers?

1) Listen to what horse trainers say. All trainers love to get in front of the camera especially when their horses are running well. Mick Channon was buoyant in his view that because Izzer won the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, they have a decent two-year-old string. It has proven correct with winners and big runs following.

2) Experience counts for a lot. That first start gives a big advantage when opposing debutantes, especially on a turning course. 

3) The intention of the trainer. Trainers are creatures of habit. How do they train their two-year-olds? When do they usually win? You will find that certain trainers never win on debut. Others place their horses to go well on their second start. While most of their chances are price driven. They need to be fancied in the betting. That is true for many but not all. I know trainers who go much better with outsiders than favourites. You simply need to have an understanding of what makes trainers tick. 

4) Keep an eye on significant entries. If there is one pointer which helps identify a talented juvenile it is their race entries. Group Horse Daily details all this information for free this season. We work hard to detail the best two-year-old horses in training. You can take a look at previous year's analysis to appreciate how good this information is. It is exceptional. 

My personal opinion is to be careful betting early season. You should enjoy what you are doing and be confident in your ability which comes from hard work or attaching yourself to people who do the work for you. The best bets always stand out. The only exception I would make about chancing your luck is if you have an inkling a big priced horse could win. You need so few of these selections to win to be in profit that I wouldn't let them pass by without a small bet.