Tuesday, 27 July 2021
Wednesday, 21 July 2021
With lockdown trapping punters at home - you can't even get out of the house. Fire up your trusty laptop as it's a portal to a world of opportunities. Whether you have a laptop, tablet, phone or whatever you have to transverse the net. To get away from the boredom of solitary confinement make your day a little more tolerable with a little bit of a gamble. Nothing better than a Simple Casino game to pass the time.
I'm sure many of you will be thinking that's not the best idea, well you may need to think again.
But here's a question: How do you win at the casino?
Each and every game under the casino banner has fixed odds. If you don't know what this means. It means the house edge prices each and every game slightly less than its true odds. The casino needs to make money else it won't be there.
That doesn't mean you cannot win when gambling at the casino.
For example, the best kept secret to winning at roulette is to play for an hour and then stop.
You may wonder what is so important about time. However, there is a very good reason. The longer you play the more money you will lose.
The only way you will win is by getting lucky and when you are a few quid up you should put the money in your pocket and play Kenny Roger's classic song The Gambler.
In fact, the last 10 times I've played roulette I've actually won money with this approach. Fair enough, the last time saw a loss of £30 but I'm up a couple of hundred.
As they say, you should bet what you can afford to lose. Or bet big if you want to win more dosh.
Bet what you can afford to lose.
I'm not keen on three-card poker.
Scared of playing blackjack.
Don't ask me why.
Some people have a phobia of spiders...
Anyway, if you want to pass the time, have a bit of fun, relaxation, and little bit of a gamble.
It might be your lucky day.
Photo: Pixabay free no attribution
Monday, 21 June 2021
1. Change in the going - no bet. From fast ground to soft turns the form book upside down.
2. Take note of the over-round - the percentage bookmakers take out of the race. With the exchanges, this factor has been helped but on big race days - such as the Grand National - it can still making betting a bad deal.
3. Bird loved a good each-way bet. He finds an 8 - 10 horse maiden and takes advantage, especially if the favourite was odds-on by betting on the second or third fav. He combines the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets.
4. He'd note good apprentices. A good apprentice with a 7lb claim can be worth a few lengths.
5. Don't be first show - the majority of runners drift in the betting from the first show. Taking second show prices will increase your winnings by 10% over a season.
6. Bird didn't like handicaps.
7. Also, never bet in three-year-old maidens, particularly those only for fillies.
In association with professionalgamblers.co.uk
Golden Betting Rules - Phil Bull
1. Temperament is vital - winning and losing. Treat them the same! Long term counts.
2. Study the form the same for each race. Don't search for bets - a no bet is a no bet.
3. It's an old maxim - never bet more than you can afford to lose. Don't attempt to make your fortune in a day.
4. Bet when the odds value. If you think a horse should be 7/1 if its 2/1 don't back it, but if its 10/1 bet. If correct long term, you will make a profit.
5. Don't follow tipsters - work hard to find your own angle (it's not simple).
6. Never bet a horse ante-post unless you now it will definitely run.
7. Don't bet each-way in either race with big fields or handicaps. One-fifth of the odds is not good value.
Wednesday, 9 June 2021
Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose.
''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***''
Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?''
But what does he know?
The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others.
It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why?
Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success.
I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss).
The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky.
I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.''
There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular.
I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success.
I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.
But back to this bloke...
He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand.
However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.
What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?''
He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling.
Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling.
Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino).
You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant.
Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse.
When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill.
I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book. It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent, you will ever meet.
Long term you will lose.
Thursday, 6 May 2021
That's when I went into the arcade and saw this old retro Jenning's Indian Head slot machine. It stood tall on a pedestal, all chrome, lights shining in semi-darkness of what was a smoke-filled room. Remember, this was back in the 70s. Even then the old Jenning's was classed as a vintage machine (boardering on a collectors item). It was one of just a few sitting proudly against the newer models, which for most gamblers, attracted there attention. Just think how this dinosaur of the gambling age would compare with casino slot games such as Mystino slots in an online world. Within my generation, gambling on the slots has literally been transformed.
From the old to the new.
I didn't realise at the time I was playing a vintage slot machine that would later in life be worth several thousand pounds. I remember putting a 2p in the slot, pulling the handle (one armed bandit) which took all my strength. And this clunky machine kicked into action, the three reels spinning and one by one coming to a shuddering halt to reveal a win or a loss.
I'm not sure if I won the jackpot, but I do recall seeing three cherries on the win line and the silver trough filled with lots of copper coins.
It was the best present I ever received.
How cool that your dad buys you a slot machine. Most parents would have been horrified by the thought of suggesting that children should (or could) gamble if they so wished.
Did it turn me into an addict?
It just gave me a realistic idea of what gambling was all about and I rarely play slot machines these days but I have and do.
The greatest aspect of online gambling is that you can do it from your own home, laying in bed if you so wish, in your pjs munching on a BLT, and drinking from a can of beer. Either way, you can try your luck and hope to win some cash.
It's good to think back to those wonder years of innocently gambling on a slot machine that was probably forty years old and I was just seven.
A budding gambler if you have ever seen one.
I look back on that time with fondness as it paved the way to a gambling world of true convenience.
Which do you prefer: The old retro slot machine or the modern online world?
It's great to have the choice.
Photo: Pixabay free no attribution
Wednesday, 31 March 2021
Archie Watson is one horse trainer who who knows where to find the winner's enclosure. In fact, I've read that some punters have critised the Upper Lambourn handler as ''just a two-year-old trainer''. I would consider that a positive than a negative for the reason that most horse trainers do not achieve many winners at any age group.
I'm sure if all those armchair trainers, and jockeys, had to do if for real, they would soon realise that winning any race is a very elusive thing.
Since 2016, Saxon Gate has seen an endless supply of winners. Being interested in two-year-old horse racing, I have followed Watson's success and he is probably one of the best trainers to finding debut winners.
In fact, he recently achieved his 400th UK winner.
It's fair to say that his juveniles are the focus of much attention and reason why the majority of early-season runners are at the top of the betting.
It's interesting to consider that a good number of his two-year-olds are relatively cheap purchases. He has a good mix of owners including Qatar Racing, Hambleton Racing and Ontoawinner syndicate who have seen some very talented juveniles.
At the start of each season, it is worth taking note of the stable's debutantes as they are trained to a very high level and mostly lead from the stalls. This is a big advantage for any two-year-old debutante as many of the opposition show signs of inexperienced.
So what are the key features to finding a winners for Archie Watson?
Over 50% of maiden/stakes winners will come by the end of June.
The majority of debut winners are priced at odds of 13/2 & less SP.
It's a similar story with two-year-olds on their second start.
One of the best pieces of information I can give about Watson's two-year-olds on their first and second start is not to bet on horse at big odds. The statistics suggest they have very little chance of winning.
In truth, the stable is the focus of many punters and bookmakers which means very few horses are value. However, that doesn't mean you cannot make money from betting on the stable's two-year-olds. But to do this, you will need to look at the specific rather than the general. I would pick the better bred horses early season and try to get in early and take the price rather than wait until near the off.
Archie Watson is one of the better two-year-old trainers in the country and his style of training for debutantes means not only are his horses fit and well but they have the education to take advantage of the opposition who may need a little more time to learn the ropes. I would suggest that many of Watson's juveniles win their race by leading from the stalls and gaining an easy advantage.
An exceptional trainer and someone you can rely to win races.
WINNER Outbox wins at Doncaster under a great ride from @HollieDoyle1 to give us our 400th UK Winner! Well done to his owners @HambletonRacing and to all the team at home! #winner #saxongate pic.twitter.com/N4AgCBFslp— Archie Watson Racing (@Archie_Watson) March 28, 2021
Thursday, 19 November 2020
2:50 Newcastle -
An intriguing race, which may well be a two-horse race.
Teona, trained by Roger Varian, will take some beating and considering it is 1/2f it looks a stiff opponents. Whether this daughter of Sea The Star is value at such short odds is a matter of opinion.
This may be good news for those who are interested in John Gosden's Silver Horn, who is a very well bred daughter of Golden Horn in the ownership of Nat Rothchilds. She was slightly weak in the betting on debut at Nottingham, in soft ground, but ran with promise giving the impression this step up in distance would be a plus and there should be more to come. If touching each-way odds this May foal could be a viable alternative to the jolly.
Looking forward to this race.
3:50 Newcastle -
It's a strange thing that Tim Fitzgerald doesn't train many two-year-olds but they win on debut. So we will see how The Sedberghian goes.
One horse that may have a hope of winning on debut, and I'm generally terrified of betting first time out, is David Barron's Rita R. However, there is a caveat regarding the money going down or not. For me the price is key for this daughter of Tagula, who may well need a stiffer trip. So what's the key to seeing a decent run? If priced in single figures, I'd expect a bold show and fair each-way claims. If weak in the market, I'd give this horse a wide birth.
4:00 Chlesmford -
I've got my eye on Brian Meehan's Impeach. This chestnut son of No Nay Never cost 80,000 euros at the yearling sales. This colt was noted by the trainer, and that hasn't happened much this season. Considering the stable have a number of talented two-year-olds, this could be a sign of ability. There was good money for this horse on debut which started at 6/1. He ran a fair race beaten under three lengths. There should be improvement to come and Meehan's juveniles often run a big race on their second start. If priced 13/2 and less sp, I would expect this March foal to hit the frame.
4:20 Newcastle -
This race has, potentially, some strength and depth. Legion Of Honour hasn't been seen since June, when finishing second place at Haydock when priced 7/2. This expensive yearling cost 280,000 guineas. There must have been a problem for this absence of almost 150 days. I wouldn't be too concerned with this lay off as Varian is unlikley to return this time of year unless fancying their chance to go well. However, backing an even money shot after time on the sidelines and some opposition may not be the value.
Archie Watson is an exceptional trainer of two-year-olds and Colonel Faulkner went close to winning on debut when denied by just half a length. I'm expecting a big run.
Keep an eye on the betting for Charlie Hill's Ariel was beaten 'country mile' on debut when priced 14/1. Racing in the familiar silks of P K Sui, was slow away and the trainer's rep detailed the horse was unsuited by the going and would prefer a 'faster surface'. It's interesting connections took the time to detail this point as it gives the impression they expected more. There has been a little bit of money for this son of Exceed And Excess. If seriously backed, I would consider this a very good sign.
Best chances today: probably Impeach and Silver Horn if available at each-way prices.
If Rita R is priced 9/1 and less sp, I would have a small each-way treble with those two noted.
Monday, 19 October 2020
Every day it's raining. The weatherman calls it precipitation - I call it a pain in the arse!
Over the weekend, Newbury and Doncaster went amiss due to abandonments. The going stick went right up to the handle.
I'm not sure if it was a blessing or a curse. Do you like betting on very testing going? Betting on my niche of two-year-old horse racing it feels like hard work. It's like donning your wellington boots and literally getting stuck in the mud. The problem with betting on juvenile horse racing is the unknown about so many aspects of these young horses. Sure, you may be convinced on breeding the horse will run on the ground. But until it is proven, we can never be totally sure.
So should we bet on the testing ground?
I am careful. I always associate soft with big-priced winners. I'm not sure if that is statistically true. However, it always feels that way. It is enough for me to be extra careful with betting on horses at short odds. The trouble with favourite on testing going is that most trainers instruct the jockey to make the most of their experience. This makes perfect logic. But there's a problem with this approach.
Can you see what it could be?
The trouble with leading or racing prominently when racing on soft going is that many jockeys go a stride too fast. This is a disaster waiting to happen. If they go too fast for conditions the horse, however good, is unlikely to win. In fact, they are likely to tire quickly and fade out of contention.
When racing on the testing ground it is wise for a trainer to instruct the jockey to sit off the pace.
I saw a couple of examples of 2yo horses racing a stride too quick at Great Yarmouth. In fact, it was a couple of short-priced favourites. They looked to be going well until the furlong pole when they dropped back like they had been shot. Both finished down the field. I'm confident these horses will show better form on better conditions.
So I would always be careful when it's raining cats and dogs.
When betting on favourites you are chancing your luck with a double gamble. Not only winning the race but will the horse be given a poor ride or even go on the going?
Friday, 28 August 2020
You know why people have a fascination with gambling?
Because they think it's easy money.
I can tell you now if you honestly think you are going to win at gambling by sheer, blind luck then you are correct, it can happen.
People looking at websites such as Online Casino Deutschland for all the latest free bets, spins and bonuses. They are like the majority of gamblers hoping they will hit the jackpot.
We've all seen people winning the lottery. Sure, there is some lucky bloke round the corner from your old grans who needed a larger cheque because they couldn't fit all those zeros.
The old dear who walked into Tesco's and got a scratch card and won a million as she was tucking into a pie.
Have you ever seen lady luck? Do you know what she looks like, what she wears or her favourite perfume?
I have this image in mind. She has the style of Coco Channel, her perfume comes from one of those giant bottles you only see in boutique stores. Perfect hair with a flash of purple in the front (pictured, Lady Luck at Great Yarmouth Casino). Without question, she is a beautiful lady. If she brushes past you while buying a scratch card from W H Smiths you will notice that look, touch and sweet, heavenly smell. She is fleeting like willow the wisp, often brushing past one to favour another with a smile on her face. She turns those waiting in line to green-eyed monsters while those she touches feel like a million dollars even if they only get three bells come up on the fruit machine.
While she is in your presence she is a queen. As she walks past with her head held high, she's a bitch.
Lady luck will visit everyone at some point in their life. She is only surpassed by skill or knowledge but even then she may make someone a fortune without a moment's thought.
The next time you are about to place a bet, buy a scratch card or play at the casino, stop for a moment, look around and see if she is waiting in the wings. If she comes closer, place a bet because this may be your lucky day.
She is waiting for you...
Sunday, 12 July 2020
12:25 Windsor -
A 5f Novice Stakes. Ten juveniles take part on good going. A relatively difficult race to assess and best to let the betting settle - sure it will find a few weak links.
Roger Charlton hasn't had many juveniles race this year and very few have figured at the business end. Creedmoor is a filly, taking on a few colts, so that may be a challenge. A wide draw isn't ideal on this dog-leg sprint. The betting is key for Charlton's debutantes, although he is one of those trainers who can win at speculative odds. However, the chances of this well-bred daughter of Invincible Spirit out of a Group-winning mare would be greatly increased if she started favourite. The stable's debutantes have the tendency to win or finish unplaced. Not the easiest of horses to assess but could be a powerhouse if strong in the market.
Lothian is well respected by Michael Attwater who doesn't have the best string of two-year-olds and never has. However, that doesn't mean he cannot train a winner if he gets the ammunition. This son of Coach House was half fancied on debut, running well from the front, and just outbattled in the closing half furlong. The form of that race has worked out well although he may be better suited to auction class, as, in theory, this is a step up in class. Little went right last time over this course. Time may tell this gelding simply ran his race and wasn't good enough. Certainly, the front two that day looked fair juveniles, with the winner [Tanfantic] running well at Listed class. It looked to me as if Lothian and Eve Johnson Houghton's Coco Bear went a stride too fast. Connections are dropping back in distance which may be a plus or minus. It is never as easy to drop back a furlong as it is to step up. There is always a fear he will be slightly outpaced.
Night On Earth ran at this course eight days ago and was relatively fancied in the betting. This son of Kodiac found himself in a very stiff race and wasn't really involved behind the easy winner, and a very good-looking colt, Supremecy, trained by Clive Cox. I'm pretty sure connections expected more and they must fancy this drop back in trip will be to his advantage. The Balding stable has been in flying form and that adds to the hopes this colt could have each-way claims if priced in single figure odds. I wouldn't want to bet unless I could get around 7/1 because this could be a hard race to win. A low draw is a positive. I would definitely let the betting settle before betting in this race.
Nurse Florence is a good-looking filly. She was fancied to go well last time over course and distance but found racing against the colts and a competitive race too much. She was a touch keen and just didn't look as though she was enjoying herself and hanging. The stable has been in good form with their two-year-olds and I am sure they rate this filly better than we have seen so far. This better going could help but she does have something to prove after last time and I wouldn't want to be betting at relatively short odds.
To add to the dilemma we have a few debutantes from stables who can ready a winner.
I'm not sure how Marco Botti's Atalis Bay cost just 800 guineas but the stable can go well on debut and win at speculative odds.
Mick Channon can send out a decent juvenile as seen with Cairn Gorm who won nicely here on debut and followed up under a penalty second start. The betting for Danzart should tell the story. This £18,000 yearling purchase may hold claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. If weak in the market is best watched.
Silent Approval has a wide draw. Gary Moore can do well with debutantes and money is often a good sign. Very few debutantes win if priced over 10/1.
Jazzy Socks is well owned and well-bred. Robert Cowell has trained a winner this two-year-old season and has a line to a fair mark from that horse. However, he is a trainer who often seems to struggle to win and I would take a watching brief.
Power On was fancied to go well on this second start at Newmarket after showing a glimmer of promise at Yarmouth on debut. Paul D'Arzy's colt is a fair-looking juvenile but disappointed last time out and connections have opted for the blinker which may work or be a sign of desperation. He was given an Ascot nomination by connections which may show some sign of confidence but a horse that needs to spring back to life and would have to be big odds to consider.
Luke Dace's Friday is the rank outsider although he has done well with debutantes at big odds.
Conclusion: A race I would be careful with. If you don't let the market settle you must need your brain testing. The only reason you wouldn't do that is if you are convinced you have found some value and your horse is likely to be backed. The betting may detail a few weak links which help with the assessment. I will be keeping an eye on Night On Earth as a potential value each-way bet. However, if Creedmoor is strong in the betting it would be enough for me to keep my money in my pocket. This race has a bit of everything going on. In addition, if a few of the debutantes are strong in the market it may be a race to watch.