Monday, 17 June 2019

What's The Best Betting Strategy?

I'm sure many people would say: ''Keep your money in your pocket!''

At times, that is definitely the best approach. 

It does worry me with so many bookmakers advertising on the TV where it will lead to some new gamblers. Even something a basic as bingo can be a disaster waiting to happen to some poor soul. It is a worry for people in relationships. Do you know what your other half is doing behind your back? 

Are they gambling to a point they are getting themselves (you or your family) in debt? The sad fact of the matter is that you may only find out when the problem is out of control. When you know what hits the fan. 

Gambling may seem a little bit of fun. However, it is far from an innocent endeavour. You may be reading this and thinking ''who cares'' ''that's their problem'' ''they should know better''.

Sadly, many new gamblers don't know better. They let the betting bug get its grip on them and for some people they struggle to stop. 

If you are betting, take a moment to consider what you are doing. What are the consequences? No one should just waste money for ''fun''. Think about what you can do with the money. Save it up and go on holiday. Go out for a nice meal. Do anything but don't waste money in the name of fun. 

If you don't work hard at gambling and rely on luck, you will lose. You may get lucky on the lottery and win a million pounds. But the chances are you have more chance of flying to the moon. 

So when betting, take a moment to question why you need to bet. 

I know it sounds a bit Mills And Boon but keep a little diary o follow your wins and losses. Then read your words with fresh eyes a month or two later. It will reveal the truth. We should appreciate the truth. 

It may say: the best betting strategy is to stop.

Saturday, 15 June 2019

2:20 Bath (15th June) The Betting Market is a Jungle Boogaloo

It's been a busy few days. Just lately I feel a touch on the back foot, which isn't ideal. However, I still like to write blog posts and make an effort to keep the info coming. 

The testing ground conditions have made life for horses and punters equally tough. It is time to be extra careful.

Just three two-year-olds races today. 

Looking at the 2:20 Bath. 

Quite an intriguing fillies' stakes over 5f on good to soft going. 

Clive Cox does exceptionally well at this course. Star Alexander was fancied to go well on debut at Ascot. This 40,000 guinea yearling purchase was a beaten favourite. I can imagine connections were a little deflated with that lacklustre effort. Time may tell, it was a decent race. Starting favourite was a significant pointer to me, and being fancied in the betting today suggests a big run is expected. 

Daddies Diva won on her third start and a fair juvenile for Rod Millman. She has pace and even though carrying a penalty here could still put in a decent performance. 

Another filly who disappointed on debut is Richard Hannon's Divine Covey, owned by Her Majesty the Queen. This homebred daughter of Dark Angel was seriously backed for her debut at Sandown. However, after showing speed, tired rapidly and finished sixth. There was something strange going on that day because a few horses seemed to run bizarrely. I wouldn't be surprised to see this grey filly run well today. 

Charles Hills does well at this course. He can win with debutantes although his statistics suggest they are more likely to be placed than win. Sabaaya is a British-bred daughter of Oasis Dream. She has drifted in the betting but still interesting. 

An outsider who may have a glimmer of hope at huge odds is Jungle Boogaloo trained by Ali Strong. The stable don't have many two-year-olds but she knows her horses. This daughter of Bungle Inthejungle was a 50/1 that day. Not a bad looking sort. I noticed she pulled like the proverbial train - a couple of furlongs, if not three. In fairness, she tired in the closing stages to finish sixth. Whether Jungle Boogaloo has ability is a difficult question to answer. Will she pull? Many unanswered questions but that's what you are dealing with when speculating if a horse can win at odds. 

Conclusion: I can't help but think Star Alexander will take some beating. Daddies Diva will most likely need the fancied runners to falter to win with a penalty. She has pace and proven ability but these win penalties are hard to defy, especially in the face of stiff opposition. Added to the mix, Divine Covey could go well. She didn't start odds on for her debut for a laugh. There is little doubt she disappointed to some extent and better should be expected. Sabaaya has each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. I would be inclined to think a placed effort is more likely than a win. Can Jungle Boogaloo win at huge odds? This isn't an easy race to win and it is difficult to assess if she has any ability. Strangely, I am measuring her ability on the fact she pulled extremely hard on debut and hoping that if racing with less temperament will show more. On balance, I would have to take a watching brief although intrigued to see how she goes. 

Thursday, 13 June 2019

2:00 Newbury Racing Tips (13th June)

Horse racing tips
Another busy day. Soft, heavy or abandoned race meetings.

Here's a tip - look for the horse with hooves the size of dinner plates or wearing Dunlop Wellington boots with go-faster stripes. 

I must admit, I'm not keen on testing going for two-year-olds as there is little form to assess whether they like to get their toe in or not. Breeding helps to a point but a soft ground 6f can turn into six and a half. Will the beast like the going, get the trip or decide it would rather jump in puddles (with its new boots) than run through a sloppy mess?

Soft ground at Newbury [2:00].

Quite an interesting race in ways. 

A few two-year-olds have received significant entries. 

William Haggas sends out Baadirr for his second start. This son of Showcasing was very weak in the betting when making his debut at Newbury over 6f. This 180,000 guinea yearling purchase ran as if needing the run. The finishing position, seventh, proved the point. Almost a month off course, this horse steps up in distance and may well appreciate the testing conditions. Also, from a statistical point of view holds respectable each way claims. 

Richard Hannon is a difficult trainer to assess at times. They can win on debut while other horses need the run. Even the betting doesn't always detail the truth of the matter. King's View has been given a Class 2 stakes entry. This son of Dark Angel has Ryan Moore in the saddle. 

I'm interested in seeing how a couple of outsiders go. Both Sylvester Kirk and Brian Meehan can win at a price on debut. 

Rocket Dancer hails from a high-class owner in John Smith who has a good breeding program. This son of Toronado is out of a winning mare. There has been some money for this bay colt. The stable's two-year-old debutantes can be unpredictable. They can flounder in last place. They can win with ease. Intriguing. 

A similar story for Swinley Forest, who races in the familiar colours of the Sangster family. This bay colt is a son of Ivawood out of a limited racing mare who was trained by Mick Channon. Brian Meehan has had a few significantly-entered juveniles race this Flat season and all have proved disappointing. The stable has a fair record at Newbury, so that adds some interest. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. The testing going is a factor that makes assessment difficult. With four horses holding significant entries it indicates there may be a little more strength and depth in this race than first observed. I think Baadirr will run a decent race with valuable experience on side. King's View holds claims. While the two outsiders, may be something of dark horses if enjoying the mud. 

Monday, 10 June 2019

Meeting Jerry Banks

Many readers of our horse racing blog will have heard the name Jerry Banks. 

It's funny working online. I bump into people here, there and everywhere. Some from down the road (Eric Winner), others from across the globe, while one man Jerry Banks lives at Lowestoft on the Norfolk coast. Being a regular at Great Yarmouth, I have been just a stone's throw away from this seaside town. I think I have been to Lowestoft once, a good few years ago, with a lady I used to know. I think it was a day out, travelling from Great Yarmouth. 

Anyway, I must have been chatting online with Jerry for many years. A long time. He runs Jerry's Best Bets, a horse racing tips website. Jerry knows his horses and bets as a professional gambler. 

I have been to Great Yarmouth races for many years and had one or two opportunities to meet Jerry at the racecourse but sadly it hasn't happened with plans changing at the last minute or simply missing him in the crowd. 

I am going to Great Yarmouth horse racing on the 28th June and I heard from Jerry that he is too. 

So, finally, I am going to meet him at the course, at a time and place. I imagine it will be near the winning post at 3:15 or something like that. 

Looking forward to meeting him and having a drink.  

Saturday, 8 June 2019

Betfair Punter Lays 7/2 Shot Lord Riddiford at Odds of 249/1

4:15 Chelmsford - 

A race where A Momentofmadness was in the field saw one punter have a similar bet laying Lord Riddiford at odds of 249/1 for £20. 

The misery didn't stop there as John Quinn's son of Zebedee went on to win the 5f sprint with win prize money of £25,876. 

Lord Riddiford, ridden by P J McDonald, returned 7/2, winning from old timer Tropics by three-quarters of a length. 

The total bet laid at £20 would have totalled £4980. I guess the lucky bettor who randomly scooped up such huge odds may have laid it off to a substantial non-lose bet. If they fancied their chances they may have kept the bet and filled their pockets with very easy money. 

You can't help feel sorry for the punter who clearly made a mistake. These things happen on a daily basis but they fill the heart with sadness. To be honest, I was hoping the horse would lose (even though my good friend Eric Winner tipped it to prove victorious) because it is the kind of bet that really shouldn't happen. 

If you are reading this post, I hope you come back from such a loss. A day you can do without. 

See the full result here

Monday, 27 May 2019

Your 2YO Guide to Royal Ascot 2019

2yo Royal Ascot 2019
Royal Ascot isn't a million miles away. 

In fact, it is on the horizon - from the 18th - 23rd June. It really is a clash of pomp and ceremony and high-end thoroughbred horse racing. 

Being interested in two-year-old horse racing, I won't be talking about anything other than the juvenile races. It is difficult, at the time of writing, which horses will be heading for which two-year-old races but I will detail a few life talents that could well take some beating. 

2019 Two-year-old (2yo) Royal Ascot 

Tuesday 18th June - Coventry Stakes Group 2 (Time: 3:05) PM (6F) 

Wednesday 19th June - Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 (2:30 PM) (5F) 

Wednesday 19th June - Windsor Castle Listed Race  (Time: 5:35 PM) (5F)

Thursday 20th June - Norfolk Stakes Group 2 (Time: 2:30 PM) (5F)  

Friday 21st June - Albany Stakes Group 3 (Time: 2:30 PM) (6F)  

Saturday 22nd - Chesham Stakes Listed Race (Time: 2:30 PM) (7F)

So we have six two-year-old races at Royal Ascot. 

Let's take a look at a few high-performing two-year-olds who have proven winners this season and could well make their presence felt come June. 

To be updated... 




Monday, 20 May 2019

In-depth Look at Samcro's Winning Chances at Cheltenham's Novice Hurdle

Samcro Cheltenham Novice Hurdle Hope
The Cheltenham Festival is one of the biggest horseracing events this year, and it’s just a few months away. Now, one of the top candidates to dominate the scene is Samcro, an Irish horse that’s hopeful to ace the biggest race of his career.

The recently-held Deloitte Novice Hurdle proved to be a massive success for Samcro after smoothly acing all six victories. This comes as a surprise knowing that the gelding is still six-years-old.

In fact, he even has two more hurdle wins this year, proving that he's all set for the big event this March. If all goes well, then it'll be his first race as a Grade One level racer. But that doesn’t mean that he’s assured victory. It’s because Samcro’s more used to making much shorter trips. Cheltenham is known to have a long race track, making eventual exhaustion likely.

Meanwhile, the horse’s trainer says that Samcro’s in great shape and it makes him very happy that the gelding managed to pull of the previous races with style. He even adds that Shane McCann gets to ride the favorite every day, checking out if it’s in max health and condition.

Indeed, Samcro’s getting a lot of attention and special care, especially that he’s the best chance for victory for his team. As of now, Samcro is the top favorite for Cheltenham’s Supreme Novices Hurdle as he gets a comfortable 6/4 odds edge.

This comes to no surprise as he’s been the top gun on previous race odds as well. He also managed to pull off all his wins with style, letting his opponents trail him with a considerable gap. Meanwhile, Getabird takes the second spot with strong 2/1 odds.

As of now, there’s still no assurance that gelding can overtake the favorite. But one thing’s for sure and that Mullins trained this one right. Trailing the top two horses are If the Cap Fits and Apples Shakira who both have 6/1 odds.

It’s still unclear who’s better between the two, but it seems like Apples Shakira gets the better hand this time knowing that this bay filly is younger and has fresher legs. Nonetheless, no forecast can still assure the one who gets the upper hand.

Then there’s Next Destination trailing with 8/1 odds, followed by Mengli and Laurina who both have 10/1 odds. Duc des Genieveres and Salsaretta also are tied with 12/1 odds.

With these being said, there's no doubt that this year's Cheltenham Festival will be an exciting event to witness. Not only because the world's top horses are going to compete with each other, but because it’s going to be a close game for all participants.


Nonetheless, it would make sense for you first to check out more information. To know what to expect, click here for freebets.co.uk Cheltenham 2018 page. This gives you a lot of ways to increase your likelihood of winning, in case you’d like to bet. Let’s just hope that the horses will remain fit and healthy before the big day arrives. They most likely will.

Tuesday, 14 May 2019

A Guide to Surviving Early Season Betting

Surviving Early Season Betting
So, the Flat turf season 2018 is underway. 

Those preseason nerves, excitement and anticipation transformed to focus on the here and now. 

The two-year-old season started with the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, just like the good, old days. Testing ground conditions have made the turf even more problematic. 

Those first few weeks, if not months, can be difficult for any age of horse but especially two-year-olds. Considering most early juveniles will be cantering over the winter period the weather can impact on their progress. Also, the going, if running on the turf. It may be a positive if they have soft-ground breeding or a negative if not. Most trainers will not take a chance with a debutante because they want them to have a pleasant introduction. For many, travelling, a change of routine, different environment and hustle and bustle of the racecourse can be a frightening experience. 

But how do we consider betting early season?

I would suggest you take care. The enthusiasm for wanting to bet can be strong (and not always a bad thing). The difficultly being you don't want to look for bets but neither do you want to miss gilt-edge chances. That is the difficulty of guidelines because they need that element of flexibility which says: ''You should bet even when you normally wouldn't''. 

Reasons why you should be careful when betting early season:

1) Even trainers need time to assess the merit of their two-year-old string. Sure, they have older horses to run against and gauge the standard of, perhaps,  their most precocious juvenile. They need a few runners to appreciate their worth. It's a time even the best of the best hold their breath and hope. 

2) Assessing form. Early season form horses can be very deceiving. A horse finishes second and it feels natural to think it has ability. That may be correct or a big mistake. Many of these early form horses will start favourite on their second start and often poor bets with little value. In fact, many will be horrendous bets. Beaten out of sight.

3) Going concerns. As detailed above, these early months can see testing ground conditions on the turf. This makes life difficult on the day and assessing horses when making their second start, which may see them go to race on the all-weather. 

4) Betting on debutantes. Even after years of betting, I am fearful of betting on debutantes. You just never know how they will handle the day. As all the early races are over 5f, a slow start, running awkward on a bend or just very inexperienced may leave you with a mountain to climb. It is a strange fact, but often the best horses have terrible debut runs. I take note of favourites who trail home in last because they often fly next start. 

So what can we look for as positive pointers?

1) Listen to what horse trainers say. All trainers love to get in front of the camera especially when their horses are running well. Mick Channon was buoyant in his view that because Izzer won the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, they have a decent two-year-old string. It has proven correct with winners and big runs following.

2) Experience counts for a lot. That first start gives a big advantage when opposing debutantes, especially on a turning course. 

3) The intention of the trainer. Trainers are creatures of habit. How do they train their two-year-olds? When do they usually win? You will find that certain trainers never win on debut. Others place their horses to go well on their second start. While most of their chances are price driven. They need to be fancied in the betting. That is true for many but not all. I know trainers who go much better with outsiders than favourites. You simply need to have an understanding of what makes trainers tick. 

4) Keep an eye on significant entries. If there is one pointer which helps identify a talented juvenile it is their race entries. Group Horse Daily details all this information for free this season. We work hard to detail the best two-year-old horses in training. You can take a look at previous year's analysis to appreciate how good this information is. It is exceptional. 

My personal opinion is to be careful betting early season. You should enjoy what you are doing and be confident in your ability which comes from hard work or attaching yourself to people who do the work for you. The best bets always stand out. The only exception I would make about chancing your luck is if you have an inkling a big priced horse could win. You need so few of these selections to win to be in profit that I wouldn't let them pass by without a small bet. 

Wednesday, 8 May 2019

When Lady Luck Catches Your Eye

An interesting topic of conversation. 

You know why people have a fascination with gambling? 

Because they think it's easy money. 

I can tell you now if you honestly think you are going to win at gambling by sheer, blind luck then you are correct, it can happen. 

People looking at websites such as Online Casino Deutschland for all the latest free bets, spins and bonuses. They are like the majority of gamblers hoping they will hit the jackpot. 

We've all seen people winning the lottery. Sure, there is some lucky bloke round the corner from your old grans who needed a larger cheque because they couldn't fit all those zeros. 

The old dear who walked into Tescos and got a scratch card and won a million as she was tucking into a pie. 

Have you ever seen lady luck? Do you know what she looks like, what she wears or her favourite perfume? 

I have this image in mind. She has the style of Coco Channel, her perfume comes from one of those giant bottles you only see in boutique stores. Perfect hair with a flash of purple in the front (pictured, Lady Luck at Great Yarmouth Casino). Without question, she is a beautiful lady. If she brushes past you while buying a scratch card from W H Smiths you will notice that look, touch and sweet, heavenly smell. She is fleeting like willow the wisp, often brushing past one to favour another with a smile on her face. She turns those waiting in line to green-eyed monsters while those she touches feel like a million dollars even if they only get three bells come up on the fruit machine. 

While she is in your presence she is a queen. As she walks past with her head held high, she's a bitch. 

Lady luck will visit everyone at some point in their life. She is only surpassed by skill or knowledge but even then she may make someone a fortune without a moments thought.

The next time you are about to place a bet, buy a scratch card or play at the casino, stop for a moment, look around and see if she is waiting in the wings. If she comes closer, place a bet because this may be your lucky day. 

She is waiting for you...

Wednesday, 17 April 2019

Betty's Hope Misses the Gin...

Free horse racing tips A couple of two-year-old horse races at Beverley, both restricted auction stakes which often go to form horses. 

The two divisions are interesting although not the easiest of races to consider for betting opportunities. 

2:15 Beverley - 

Rod Millman has an interesting juvenile taking part over this 5f sprint in the shape of Betty's Hope, a daughter of Anjaal a bargain buy at just £3,000. This bay filly was no match for Archie Watson's Lady Kermit who showed no signs of greenness at Kempton a couple of weeks back. At this time of year, it is difficult to assess form. The angle here is that Millman's two-year-olds on their second start often go very well. The downside is that they either win or finish unplaced, so if betting, it is probably wise to go for a straight win rather than eachway. In addition, this January foal has a plum draw in stall one. Priced about 7/2, has claims although I will be taking a watching brief unless drifting to bigger odds. 

2:50 Beverley - 

This second division is worth a second look. Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and his two-year-olds are worthy of respect on their second start. Gin Gembre made his debut at Windsor when finishing a credible fourth of nine. There was some money for this son of Dandy Man, which adds to the idea this February foal has an element of ability. This 4,500 euro foal increased in price at the yearling sales (24,000). It is difficult to assess the form of that race although the winner, Chasanda, trained by David Evans, looks a fair filly beating mostly a field of colts. I was left with the impression that Gim Gembre was pretty fit for his debut and ridden with some gusto. Today's race is pretty weak being pretty restrictive, which, as mentioned, favours, form horses. With valuable racecourse experience and a good draw, this looks a fine opportunity. The price doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I think Gin Gembre has very good claims here but the price would need to drift to tempt me to put my hand in my pocket.