Wednesday, 4 January 2023
Every day it's raining. The weatherman calls it precipitation - I call it a pain in the arse!
Over the weekend, Newbury and Doncaster went amiss due to abandonments. The going stick went right up to the handle.
I'm not sure if it was a blessing or a curse. Do you like betting on very testing going? Betting on my niche of two-year-old horse racing it feels like hard work. It's like donning your wellington boots and literally getting stuck in the mud. The problem with betting on juvenile horse racing is the unknown about so many aspects of these young horses. Sure, you may be convinced on breeding the horse will run on the ground. But until it is proven, we can never be totally sure.
So should we bet on the testing ground?
I am careful. I always associate soft with big-priced winners. I'm not sure if that is statistically true. However, it always feels that way. It is enough for me to be extra careful with betting on horses at short odds. The trouble with favourite on testing going is that most trainers instruct the jockey to make the most of their experience. This makes perfect logic. But there's a problem with this approach.
Can you see what it could be?
The trouble with leading or racing prominently when racing on soft going is that many jockeys go a stride too fast. This is a disaster waiting to happen. If they go too fast for conditions the horse, however good, is unlikely to win. In fact, they are likely to tire quickly and fade out of contention.
When racing on the testing ground it is wise for a trainer to instruct the jockey to sit off the pace.
I saw a couple of examples of 2yo horses racing a stride too quick at Great Yarmouth. In fact, it was a couple of short-priced favourites. They looked to be going well until the furlong pole when they dropped back like they had been shot. Both finished down the field. I'm confident these horses will show better form on better conditions.
So I would always be careful when it's raining cats and dogs.
When betting on favourites you are chancing your luck with a double gamble. Not only winning the race but will the horse be given a poor ride or even go on the going?
Monday, 19 December 2022
It looks a two horse race as far as the betting is concerned. Tagabawa looks good. I wouldn't worry about the penalty. Wigmore Street is a high stat horse if 11/4 and less sp and very high if 6/4 and less. For any debutante to beat a potentially classy winner is no easy task. There really isn't any value in either and in that sense it doesn't really matter which horse may win. Scenic is potentially value. The type of bet which is ideal for the exchanges really as you will get much bigger odds on the win bet. For example wit bookies it is 8/1 while it's 12/1 on the exchanges. Scenic may have a hope but I can't help thinking it will be a task to win against these two potentially smart horses. Gosden's debutante is about the only other hope Free Lovin' simply because he can win at big prices on debut and with those at the head of the market so strong, it may be pushed out in the betting. However, it looks a tough race to beat the two favourites and if Crisford's starts over 6/4 I would suspect the Godolphin horse will win. The only real value may be Scenic but in all honesty I would want about 20/1 on the exchanges and I'd still be hoping rather than confident. There looks little value with the favourites.
1:20 Kempton -
Banded race. Funny looking race. Dragon Ball Prince has been making hard work of winning (being placed even) and could be there to be shot at. I wouldn't be betting odds on. It doesn't look much of a race No great opinion but Balding's Green Machine could have a chance. He does well if his debutantes are priced about 7/1, although if short priced always seem to place but rarely win. A watching race for me.
5:30 Chelmsford -
Very little value in the two favourites. Nice to see Maharajas Express make it two from two. Bluff isn't much of a price. A slow start on debut saw him along way off the pace. Not a bad looking horse, quite compact. Always a slight concern he will get a slow start today but should be wiser for the experience.Cowell has had a poor year with his two-year-olds (lack of numbers and talent) and has fair stats second time out if 13/2 and less sp. Although his horses either seem to win or unplaced. Not the type of horse I would be betting at relatively short odds but may play its part.
6:30 Chelmsford -
This is a big drop in class for Giant who ran well on debut. A strapping colt who, I imagine, will look head and shoulders above these physically. No real value at short odds although a horse which will take a lot of beating. Bonkersinabundnce and Scramble are closely matched. I think the drop back to 7f will benefit Varian's filly but losing four times doesn't fill me with confidence at relatively short odds. There's always a chance after a few hard races she will crack up and disappoint. On balance may shade Scramble. I do like Conrad Allen as a trainer (pity he doesn't get more horses) as he is capable and knows what he's doing. In fact, the owners of this horse had a winner back in the day called Taylor Quigley who won my brother and I a good few quid. Scramble looks professional and relaxed. The type to run to the line which may be a strength if the favourites lead. The bookies aren't giving much away on the top three in the betting. Holy Fire cost 15,000g and just 1,500g as a foal. Not bad owners Offthebridle Podcast and its not beyond the realms Fellowe's has picked this horse out as a hope. His debutantes have fair place stats if 10/1 and less sp. All in all an interesting but tricky race. I think the favourite will go very well but no price. Scramble may have ew claims but no real value. I couldn't bet on Bonkersinabundance because it just isn't going the right way. While Holy Fire would be a hit and hope. Would need to be ideally single figures and just not the type I would want to bet against the hot favourite.
Wednesday, 14 December 2022
Maso Bastie was fancied on debut but like many of Fanshawe's debutantes this year inexperience. Has high stats 43% win and 76% place. No real value unless drifting to the extreme. A few in opposition have race three times which I take as a negative unless backed to favourite. On form there isn't anything between City Of York and Congresbury. Hanon's is making this his third start. Has a chance but probably limited. Passing Time would have fair stats if 9/1 and less sp but didn't show anything on debut. I don't think there is much value here but expect Fanshawe's to run a race.
2:25 Lingfield -
Well bred Star Guest would be a high stat horse if 11/4 and less sp 355 win and 71% place. No real value. Cruella De Vill went close last time and should appreciate a step up to 7f. A worry racing on fourth start. Copy Artist looks half fancied in the betting. Balding does quite well if about 7/1 but can be hit and miss. Paco's Pride would be a high stat horse if backed to 9/2 and less sp. Not the biggest horse but showed pace before tiring in the closing stages. I think that was a decent race so may be ok. Twilight Dancer ran a decent race considering she ran wide for most. Ran on quite well at the line. Portman has ok stats at 13/2 and less sp 12% win and 52% place. Has something to prove with Cruella De Vill but draw well and may get closer.
Saturday, 19 November 2022
A open looking race. Cruella De Vill ran well last time out. Not been seen for a long time. Has claims although not great value. Finest Leader was a high stat horse last time out. A nice strong looking horse who showed up well before tiring in the closing stages. This six furlong will be much faster and it could well favour Charlton's horse. A low draw is a plus. Bookmaker's have James Ferguson's Beelzebub, who was behind Finest Leader, as a shorter price. Could well improve for the run and a costly purchase. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Fifty Year Storm was fancied on debut and cost a decent amount of money. Ran well enough that day if not going a stride too fast. The betting should tell the story today and has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Basically no hope of winning if over 11/1.
7:00 Wolverhampton -
Tagabawa is a high stat horse but no real value. Glorious Lion has a group entry and well backed on debut. It was something of a disappointing effort but better may be expected. Stepping up in distance and in a fancied betting guide gives ew claims. Roost was a high stat horse on debut but being a small race was probably forced. Difficult horse to assess but Beckett can go well sto especially if 13/2 and less sp. Galiilaeous was half fancied on debut at 9/2. A slow start gave little hope but a very well bred horse and costly purchase. Once again would have decent stats if backed to 13/2 and less sp but Beckett has had sto winners up to 40/1. Mr Mistoffelees was half fancied on debut and tailed off. However, there has been money for this well bred colt which gives the impression better is expected. Alex The Great was relatively fancied on debut when racing at class 2. A costly purchase and well owned. It isn't beyond the realms there could be better seen today although at this time a 33/1. Would have to be substantially backed to have any hope. To be fair, not the easiest of races to assess. The betting nearer the off may help but a few of these need to improve.
7:30 Wolverhampton -
Isle Of Jura is a high stat horse. Wide draw. No real value. Intricacy would be a high stat horse if 11/4 and less sp. Bohemian Breeze has a class 2 stakes entry. Run well on both starts and a touch wide last time. Looks the type to lead or sit handy and capable. Zodiac Star is a good looking colt. A touch keen last time out but a horse which looks capable and should go well. Luna Effect was a high stat horse last time out when keen and disappointing. May be capable of better but a giant price today which may be telling. Best watched unless you fancy a punt. The betting nearer the off may help pick between the lines. Doesn't look the easiest race to assess at the time of writing.
Thursday, 27 October 2022
Pherenikos ran well on debut at Yarmouth. A strong-looking race. No value. Berkshire Cruz was fancied to go well on debut and professional. Should improve for that race and appreciate this step up in trip. Has decent stats if 9/1 and less sp. Apex ran a fair race on debut. Has very good stats if 13/2 and less sp. Alzahir has a group entry and disappointed last time. A poor effort for a short price. Not helped by today's fourth start. Needs to bounce back and best watched. Pumalin has decent stats for debutantes in October but very few win over 7/1. Can pop up with a very talented horse.
2:50 Lingfield -
Peace Of Mind won on debut and has to defy a penalty. Liberty Mountain has run five times and you'd imagine struggle and an official rating of 68 is just about selling class. Evening Story needed the run and had a lot of work to do after a slow start. A decent bred horse out of a winning mare. Owners - the Middlebrooks - do well with Kubler and he has decent stats sto with horses priced 10/1 and less sp. Could go well. Powdering is a decent looking horse who I thought would run better last time but didn't. Wasn't helped by inexperience and struggling on the turns.Should improve with experience but may be a horse set out for nursery races. Only one horse I would be looking at here and that's Evening Story but needs to show more and being a small race might be forced into the betting guide.
5:30 Chelmsford -
New Definition is Tate's best 2yo and a very capable horse with a win under his belt and an official rating of 89. Has to shoulder a win penalty. Sets a decent standard. No real real value but respected. Casamigos was beaten by a narrow margin by New Definition. I do think Tate's didn't have the best passage that day and Casamigos ran poorly last time at Yarmouth. It wasn't a bad performance but disappointing. I would have slight concerns she can beat New Definition. Muy Muy Guapo was slightly keen at Windsor but ran a sound race. Looking to hold every chance and tired in the closing stages. A class 2 stakes entry shows the standing this horse is held in the stable and while no super horse has a level of ability to perhaps be competitive here. As always, betting is all about finding value.
Monday, 17 October 2022
No great opinion. The favourites have had four race plus and that is usually bad news. Although they can win as favourites. Looks an open if not lowly race.
1:50 Windsor -
Proverb is a short price and carries the penalty. Radio Goo Goo keeps trying and had little luck but deserves a victory. Visor applied. Run seven times and which brings concerns. Probably there to be shot at but a horse with a chance even if the odds are against it. Lulworth Cove hasn't been seen for 142 days. Seemed outpaced over the 5f at Salisbury and may need further. If priced 13/2 and less sp would bring added confidence. Paul Cole's two-year-olds have been in good form. Desert Fighter hasn't been seen for 51 days and drops back in trip. A decent looking colt, and this could be viewed on race grade a drop in class, but need to improve a lot and a transformation for this lay off. I'm not sure if this drop in distance is a positive. The betting will be key. Has fair stats if backed to 13/2 and less sp but unlikely to win if double-figure odds.An outsider worth checking in the market is Rae Guest's Empire Of The Sun. Would need to be backed to 20/1 and less sp. Does well in the month of October with debutantes although the money needs to come.
2:00 Pontefract -
Listed race. Will be watching.
7:00 Wolverhampton -
A D banded race. The Thames Boatman makes his fourth start. Often a negative but when favourite a fighting chance. Clipsham La Habana is a sturdy-looking colt who ran well on debut when relatively fancied. Always a good time to bet, second start, especially when most have run plenty of times and looks a decent chance although no great value. Colours Of Freedom makes his debut for Archie Watson and would need to be in single-figure odds to hold any great hope.
Tuesday, 4 October 2022
Power of Gold has fair stats but no value. Cannon Rock has fair stats if 7/1 and less sp. Marco Botti has been quiet this season but October is a month which sees the most debut winners for the stable and Daysofourlives has been nibbled at in the market. On a statistical front, he is very hit and miss on debut although features fair place claims.
2:43 Brighton -
A lowly banded race. Strawberry Belle sets a decent level and been very consistent over the five runs so far. Always a worry a horse with so many runs will regress at some time and could do so at short odds. That's the gamble with a horse of this type. Sigmund ran well in the Convivial but fell flat second time out when odds on. Perhaps returning to turf will help. De Foy is a decent trainer and knows what he is doing so you would b hopeful of a better run today. Dagmar Run was half fancied on debut but run as if needing the race, out the back and running on with promise. Definitely looks more to come. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp.
3:18 Brighton -
This looks an open race which may not take a great deal of winning. I do wonder if Expressionless has been slightly flattered by his debut effort and failing sto out may see a vulnerable favourite. Hurtle has had five starts and been thereabout but struggling to get his head in front. An offIcial rating of 66 is basically plating class which doesn't set a very high level. In truth, this would need to be a below par race to win. Mark Johnston can win on debut but most are priced 9/2 and less sp. Also, its not the best month for debut winners for the stable but in a race which looks so weak a debutante may have claims. The betting should tell more. Interesting to see Dee's Dream has been given two class 2 stakes entries. Michael Attwater can find a winner and this filly may have a glimmer of hope although needs to show much more today. She didn't run a bad race on debut when pretty keen and looked outpaced when upped in class at Kempton, running wide and leading before dropping back. May have a chance at giant odds (because of the entries) but needs a transformation.
6:30 Southwell -
Two narrow losses for Double March but no value. Although I do associate Woods doing well at this course. Castle Peak hails from a stable that have excelled this year and a horse to be respected. Very good stats if 11/4 and less sp. James McHenry ran well on debut and may have disappointed last time although that was a tough race with quality and I wonder if the soft ground slightly took the edge off Bethell's runners. Looks the type to run a race. Calypso ran a fair race on debut and has very good place claims if 13/2 and less sp.
Saturday, 1 October 2022
Ararat ran well on debut and should go well but no value at the price. Lady Mojito ran a decent race on debut. May well hold ew claims. Tipp Town has fair stats at 13/2 and less. In theory Design would be a high stat horse if backed to 13/2 and less sp. Doesn't look likely but worth keeping an eye on the money if it comes. Maltese Falcon hails from a stable who don't have many two-year-olds but interesting that she has owner Lady Ogden as a patron who can have very good horses. Menzies can win on debut and worth noting as a hope. Conclusion, no great opinion but interesting race.
2:06 Newmarket -
Classy race. Good to watch.
3:17 Nemarket -
Imperial Emperor is a high stat horse at 11/4 and less sp. Very well bred horse. A Dublin Lad has a class 2 entry and has high stats if 5/2 and less sp. Cost a lot of money. Best month of the year for Gosden with debut winners. Leadenhall was a high stat horse on debut when disappointing. Has two class 2 stakes entries. Has fair stats. Another trainer who has his best month with debut winners is Roger Varian's Luna Effect who would have claims if 5/1 and less sp. Interesting to see how King Sharjah goes as has 5 class 2 stakes entries. On stats Hannon is pretty poor at big prices on debut. Additionally, not a very good month for debut winners. Conclusion, the two favourites have good stats but not great value. Leadenhall needs to improve. The betting will help.
3:21 Redcar -
High class race. Will be watching.
3:52 Newmarket -
Military Order is exceptionally well bred. Has high stats if 6/4 and less sp. Enfijaar has decent stats at 11/4 and less. A very good month for Varian. William Haggas does well at Newmarket and this is a good month for him although, in general, a poor trainer to bet on debut. Very few debutantes win over 9/1 so the betting should help assess the chance of Laafi. Conclusion, the two favourites look hard to stop but not much value going on.
6:00 Wolverhampton -
Looks a tricky race and not too much value. Interesting to see Omniking has some entries but did little on debut and not seen for a long time. I wonder if he will come back to some level. No real opinion.
Conclusion for day, can't see too much going on. A few high stat horses but no value.
Sunday, 25 September 2022
2:15 Epsom -
Class 2 stakes race. Will be watching.
2:45 Yarmouth -
A fascinating race in ways. Rajastan has a class 2 stake s entry and exceptionally well bred. Not a bad month for debut winners and Gosden can go well at Yarmouth. Would have fair stats at 5/2 and less sp, especially so if backed to 6/4 and less although about price to chance. Roger Varian has been in decent form and Irregular Warfare cost a lot and well owned. A good month for debut winners and a hope if 5/1 and less sp. Simon Crisford's Knight has been given a group entry and class 2 stakes which suggests a horse with ability. I think the betting will tell the story here and would need to be 11/4 and less sp to be at best but would have excellent stats if it does. Aesthetic has been given a class 2 stakes entry and cost a lot of money. Haggas can be very hit and miss with debutantes but they can win at 9/1 and less sp. To add to interest John Ryan has given outsider My First Rodeo a group entry. He isn't the worst trainer on earth and has done quite well at Yarmouth but you'd imagine it would be a stiff task but never say never. So, all in all, a lot going on. The betting may help identify strength and weakness. Looks a race where two or three have turned up fancying their chances of a win.
2:40 Ffos Las -
She's Cool is a short price should get off the mark today especially if 1/4 or shorter odds.
2:59 Yarmouth -
Fariba is a winner and has a fair string of entries so even under a penalty should go well in a race that looks difficult to assess in ways. Disdainful has changed ownership and stables since his win and is an unknown quantity. There has been a bit of money for Daniel Kubler's City Cyclone and the stable can go well with horses sto at 10/1 and less sp. The betting may help.
Monday, 12 September 2022
2:25 Brighton -
Short priced favourite and little value at the top of the market.
2:50 Thirsk -
Looks a competitive race with Tabaretta, James McHenry and In These Shoes. All look decent horses. Not giving much away on the prices.
6:00 Kempton -
A tricky looking race with a couple of winners with penalties. The two favourite don't look much value at all and may be there to be shot at. I see Hill Cove was with Tuite and now with Portman. It was given a class 2 stakes entry with Tuite. Looked keen on debut and ran wide which didn't help. Not the easiest horse to assess but may have a glimmer of hope. Sto Portman doesn't have the best stats 13/2 and less 12% which is about 8/1 and 52% place which is price to chance. Interesting to see if goes ok after a long time off course. The entry gives a little bit of interest. Topo Chico was half fancied on debut but looked very inexperienced. May have a hope but not the easiest to assess. These two are most likely the only value against the favourite but have something to prove.
6:30 Kempton -
Quite an interesting race. Sir Mark Prescott's Alexandretta ran a brilliant race last time out and the form looks strong. You would imagine will take some beating. You couldn't knock Tom Ward's Lady Dreamer who ran very well on debut and looks likely to improve for the step up in distance. Adding to the mix is Zarga for Stoute who was a high stat horse when beaten favourite at Goodwood a class 2 race. It wouldn't surprise me to see Stoute's run better today as he does do well at Kempton and this turning course may help. Difficult to know who will win but I would favour Prescott's although stoutes may have some value if drifting a touch in the betting and have ew claims. But I'd have to see the betting nearer the off. I do think Prescott's sets a very good level of form.