Thursday, 7 February 2019

Betting Strategy: The #1 Thing That Works (Discipline)

Betting Strategy: The #1 Thing That Works (Discipline)
For many, betting is not a complex subject.

It takes as little time as scribbling out a betting slip: time, meeting, horse's name and stake. How simple was that? ''I don't see what all the fuss is about. It's as easy as ABC...''

However, the question we need to ask those individuals is: ''Does your betting pay?''.

If it does, then you don't need to read anything else because you've cracked it. Perhaps you've gone one step beyond and have a bot placing bets and making a passive income. You travel from country to country only checking your betting account to see how much money you've won!

Sadly, for most people, this is a dream...

Very few winners in life get there by knowing less. How can you know less but make more? I don't think it is possible unless you have some strange theory using quantum physics.

If you wrote a diary of the process of making a betting selection, what would it reveal? I mean, are we talking about something that could be written on the back of a stamp or enough chapters to write a book? From individual to individual both of those examples are true. However, which one of the two extremes would you like to receive a tip?

Unless you have a strange fetish for losing money, I imagine it would be the latter. So, in the main, we appreciate that being successful takes time. 

Discipline is one of many aspects of being successful. You don't see anyone in the army lacking discipline. It is the foundation of being productive and achieving a goal. Successful betting is the same. As I have said many times, you don't wake up one morning to find you are a professional gambler. If you considered that possibility, I would assess that the individual is a professional fool. I know a lot of people associate being a professional gambler with the definition: betting lots of money on short-priced horses. I've seen it myself. Funny how those people are now doing a 9 - 5 job. I don't say that trying to rub salt into their wounds. 

We are simply dealing with facts.  

From my years of betting I have realised how important discipline is to successful gambling.

In many respects, it is about knowing the answer to a question rather than making a knee-jerk reaction. It can be something as simple as being prepared for an upcoming race whether that day, next week or later that year. It may be having a guide in place which says unless there is an exceptional reason, don't bet odds-on. While your pre-season research details that a given trainer has very little chance of winning if priced over a certain price when racing on debut. 

If I wrote down every aspect of discipline when making an assessment whether to bet or not it would be a complex, fascinating and ''boring'' read. 

That discipline doesn't end with placing a bet. Because there may be reasons why I bet more or lay off the bet. 

The guiding principle of discipline is that long term it will bring greater understanding, opportunity and winning (or making money).   

I have known people who have bet all their life and they would read these words and think it is mumbo jumbo. ''Who needs that? What a waste of time? I just write out my bets, job done!''

Sadly, unless they have something very unusual going on, they lose on a regular basis. In a world of competition, you do not need to be the best just one step ahead of the majority leads to success. 

Tuesday, 29 January 2019

Blue Diamond Stakes 2019 Ante-Post Preview

Blue Diamond Stakes 2019 Ante-Post PreviewThe leading two-year-olds in Australia will descend upon Caulfield to battle it out for the $1.5 million Blue Diamond Stakes on February 23. It is the biggest race in the Melbourne Autumn Carnival and the second richest race of the year for two-year-olds, so it always attracts a strong field. The Blue Diamond Stakes is a Group 1 contest, so it also carries huge amounts of prestige, ensuring a large group of colts and fillies will compete. This 1200m race always attracts significant early betting interest, so it is worth assessing recent trends and looking at the leading contenders for glory. 

Last year, unbeaten colt Written By romped to victory in the Blue Diamond Stakes with a supremely dominant performance. He defied a wide barrier to outstrip all his rivals, finishing two and a half lengths clear of the previously undefeated Magnus filly Enbihaar. It marked a first Group 1 victory for promising young jockey Jordan Childs, whose father Greg won this race back in 1992 on Bart Cummings’ Riva Diva. 

Greg Childs used to ride for Hall of Fame trainer Neville Begg in Hong Kong. Begg, who is now 88, breeds horses and he owns Written By. He was also a proud father on that day as his son, Grahame, trained Written By and that victory completed a fantastic comeback for the former Randwick star. Graham Begg had been an outstanding trainer in his own right until 2014, when he decided to take a break from racing, before reappearing in Victoria to try to reignite his career. The Blue Diamond Stakes was his first Group 1 victory since 2011. Both fathers watched the race at their homes and they were jumping for joy when Written By stormed past the post. “When I was growing up and coming through the ranks, all I wanted to do was to ride on the big days and win Group 1 races,” said Childs. “Neville and Grahame Begg are from a great racing family, so to be able to ride for them is a great thrill. I can’t thank them enough.” The punters were also delighted, as Written By was backed from $11 all the way in to $5.50 favourite. He went on to win the Rosehill Gardens and the Blue Sapphire Stakes and he remains full of promise. 

Favourites have a reasonably good record at the Blue Diamond Stakes, securing victory 11 times in the last 35 years. In that time, 24 have placed, so each-way bets can be popular on the favourite and punters would at least break even if it places. In the past two decades, just six winners have had double-figure prices. The shortest priced favourite was Sepoy at $1.40, who duly delivered by winning in style, while Written By was actually the longest priced favourite at $5.50. 

Since 1983, barrier 5 has been the most successful, yielding five winners. The least successful barriers are 12, 13, 14 and 17, as only one winner apiece has come from them. Written By was in barrier 14, which had never previously yielded a winner, but he defied a trend that sees runners in wide barriers struggle. Since 2000, colts have secured 11 wins compared to seven for fillies. The Blue Diamond winner almost always comes from two Blue Diamond Preludes, one for colts and one for fillies, which are run a fortnight before the big race. The last 12 winners of this race finished either first or second in their previous run.

It is an extremely prestigious race and notable past winners include Catchy, Star Witness and Bel Esprit, along with Sepoy. Many victors of the Blue Diamond Stakes go on to enjoy very successful careers and interest is always high among punters. The current favourite for this year’s renewal is Brooklyn Hustle, who leads the way with the major bookmakers featured at Punters. Jason Warren’s filly raised eyebrows with a superb performance when surging to victory at The Valley in Melbourne on December 1. “I’m confident we’ve got the right horse,” said Warren. And she’s set for that race. “She’s not set for the Prelude. She’s set for the Blue Diamond. “She’s going to trial next Thursday and then she will go into the Prelude. Fingers crossed we can keep her in one piece. She looks super.” 

Yet the field looks extremely competitive and Catch Me delivered a great showing when winning by a length in a Blue Diamond trial on Saturday. She was given no favours in the run, finding herself trapped wide throughout, but she displayed excellent temperament and an impressive turn of pace to go on and clinch victory. I Am Immortal also sparkled and the price on him dropped after he stormed to a powerful victory at Caulfield on the same day. 

The likes of Tassort, Yes Yes Yes, Exhilarates, Jedastar and Athiri have all shown a lot of promise too, so it promises to be a ferociously competitive race. Be sure to look out for the preludes on February 9 as they will cause the odds to shift dramatically, and they should give strong clues as to who will triumph in the big race two weeks later.

Monday, 28 January 2019

Hold Your Horses

It's a common phrase but do you know the meaning?

The phrase is historically related to horse riding, or driving a horse-drawn vehicle. A number of explanations, all unverified, have been offered for the origins of the phrase, dating back to usage in Ancient Greece.

It's more than a phrase - It's a Virtual Slot Machine. A game that I've just got to tell you all about. 

Novo Slots website is brilliant at detailing the latest news, offers, free spins and everything you need to keep informed. 

This is more than just Gee Up Neddy to the Fair. 

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If playing Hold Your Horses isn't enough to get you clip-clopping down the street read about a few slot players who won big in Vegas.


The Biggest Slots Win Ever!

A 25-year-old software engineer chance $100 at the Excalibur Casino on the Megabucks Machine and won almost $40 million. Wow!

Cynthia Jay Wins $34 Million

January 26th, 2000. It was a very lucky day for cocktail waitress Cynthia Jay. The 37-year-old hit the second largest Megabucks win in history. However, her life took a disastrous turn when just six weeks later she was left paralysed in a car accident which sadly saw her sister lose her life. 

Living For The Day

It's a phrase many live by. That's certainly what 76-year-old retired flight attendant from Vegas who only intended to bet $100 but went to $300. However, those extra dollars did wonders for her bank balance when she won $27 million.  

The Biggest Loser

Far from the biggest loser in financial term but a man many people would love to see lose his shirt rather than his ill-fated workers. Most of the world have heard about Robert Maxwell with his infamous use of workers' pensions. Easy come easy go for the late Maxwell when we went to a casino in Mayfair, London and lost £1.5 million in a matter of minutes when a few spins on the roulette table went wrong. 

Thursday, 24 January 2019

Making Your Betting Pay: How Scarce is Your Winning Information?

It may seem a quiet time for blog updates. However, you couldn't further form the truth. It would be nice to sit with my feet up and just wait for the new season to arrive wrapped up in a bow. 

I can imagine a lot of readers think my life is one of luxury and bundles of cash. It's all relative, hey. I feel very lucky to live a life of my choice and 'working' in a professional which I enjoy. It has taken a long time to get to this point of being able to make horse racing my business. I run a number of websites [like this one] and betting. In the future, I will be selling more products. But that depends on how these next few seasons go. The problem with selling winning information is that it needs to cost a lot of money to make me want to divulge. If I can make you money, how much is that knowledge worth? When you consider banks don't even give away a per cent or two for vast sums of money when someone can make you money - they need to be paid well. 

I don't work cheap because I don't need to. To be fair, anything of true worth is worth good money. People don't respect something that is cheap. True, primary information, is literally worth its weight in gold. 

I have paid $800 dollar for a course on blogging. I've paid £250 for a piece of horse racing information that I never used. I paid the price because I respect that good information costs real wonga because it gives a return. 

 Anyway, I'm waffling as usual. 

I have been very busy - still - working on my horse trainer statistics. I'm sure there is software out there which makes life easier but I kind of like to work hands on so I can see the trainer, horses, season, winners, losers, and work out what the hell is going on. I'm not going to give any info here and now but I can tell you researching data is worth the time and effort. 

I studied Michael Dods the other day. Well, it must have taken a few days in all. He is a very interesting trainer simply because he can win with horses at big odds. It is like following a seam of gold. Find the answer to a question and you can find information that fills your pockets with cash. Sounds good, hey? Anyway, I have just about concluded my research for this one of many trainers. I don't like to think about all the trainers yet to come but they will be completed one after another.

The information is just one part of the jigsaw puzzle which helps find winners. It is about looking in the right direction. To polish the stone of knowledge until it gleams with diamond-like qualities.  

A lucky few people will be able to share the best of my information this season. It will be an exciting journey that many will wish they could follow. Perhaps that will happen in the future. It will be a product that will need substantial investment. In hard times the price of gold goes up. The opportunities to join us will be similarly scarce. 

Good luck to all. 

Wednesday, 23 January 2019

The Oldest Grand National Winners

Oldest Grand National Winners
If there is one race which captures the mind it has to be the Grand National. This April 8th will be no different from many before but if you want to watch the most famous steeplechase in the world make it all the more tantalising to login to William Hill to bet on the Grand National

A testing course of 4 miles 3 ½ furlongs. Forty horses will make the line-up. Two demanding circuits, 30 fences, and run in that saps the energy of all but the winning horse. It's enough to make a young horse feel old. This leads into the fascinating question.

Who is the oldest winner of the Grand National?

Well, we can answer that quite simply but we need to go back into the archives to 1853. In this year a horse called Peter Simple won at the age of 15. This bay gelding was trained and ridden by Tom Oliver in the ownership of Josey Little. He was 9-1, so his seniority didn't deter bettors.

What may surprise readers is that this was Peter Simple's second win of the Grand National. He won in 1849 aged 11 when trained and ridden to victory by Tom Cunningham owned by Finch Mason Jr.

In fact, four other horses have won the Grand National twice: The Duke 1836, 1837, Abd-El-Kader 1850, 1851, The Colonel 1869,1870 & Reynoldstown 1935, 1936.

The only horse to win three races is the legendary Red Rum who proved successful in 1973, 1974 & 1977. Ginger McCain's star was also runner-up on two other occasions.

But back to the old timers who have proven, they can win almost at any age. Peter Simple defied his age because the next oldest horses to win were aged13.

They were:

  • 1894 – Why Not 5/1JF
  • 1923 – Sergeant Murphy 100/6

So just 3 horses have won aged 13-years and older.

In this modern era, horses aged 12 are not without a fighting chance. In fact, 7 horse have won since 1969.

The most recent trained by Ginger McCain, who made the headlines with Red Rum, but this time it was Amberleigh House in 2004. Ridden by Graham Lee, he was returned at odds of 16/1. This bay son of Buckskin was an exceptional jumper and raced over the National fences at Aintree on 11 occasions (5 in the National) without falling. He made his Grand National debut in 2001 when bought down at the Canal Turn, the 8th fence.

His second best performance in the National came in 2003 when finishing third behind Monty's Pass.

Looking at this year's entrants, there are a couple of horses that may well run age 12.

Maggio is trained by Patrick Griffin and presently odds of 50/1.

The only other runner who may just sneak into the maximum 40 entrants on the day is Raz De Maree trained by Gavin Cromwell. This son of Shaanmer is priced 40/1.

In recent years horses aged 9 – 11 years of age have proved best.

Saturday, 5 January 2019

The Pegasus Pick 24

This January, it is a big turning point of the Stornachs in the third year of The Pegasus World Cup which is now declared to be a championship series with a dirt and turf race in the tracks of the infamous Gulfstream Park, Florida. 

Racing fans will not only see the intriguing race for the Invitational as they will also witness on the same day the Turf Invitational race live and online through 

This exciting upgrade for the Pegasus World Cup Championship Invitational Series will include the $9 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational for Grade 1 4-year old to thoroughbred horses, with a wire-to-wire possibility on the dirt at 1 1/8 miles offering $4 million for the winner of the 12-horse field and a $7 million debut on the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, to be run on the turf at 1 3/16 mile. 

The Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational will replace the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and aims to attract and showcase 12 of the best turf horses from around the world as they compete for a $3 million first-place prize. 

Betting the Pegasus World Cup now gets bigger and better with high rise money at stake for both races. 

In addition, The Stronach Group will offer a $1 million bonus to the owner who wins both the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and will be introducing a new race day wager, the Pegasus Pick 24. 

The Pegasus Pick 24 will provide fans with the chance to bet on the exact finish order for both the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. A $5 million bonus awaits the lucky fan that hits on the Pegasus Pick 24. This feature at the Pegasus itself makes the odds be seen clearer than the players expect it to be with the help of TVG’s betting strategy exclusively for their members.

The appearance of the previous winners for the 1 ⅛ mile race is expected in this championship series. It will be a tough fight for 2017 horse of the year Arrogate and reigning champ Gun Runner this time. The expected turfers who are now stocked to take part in this richest race in the world ever would be a thrilling close distance race from Glorious Empire, Aerolithe, Magical and the rest on the line. 

Having your TVG online betting account will give you a strong undercard with ample opportunities on the day to win some money from betting, a chance for you to take part in the richest race ever through betting which is the next best thing you can be proud of yourself other than owning one of the runners in the Pegasus World Cup itself. 

TVG has a full real-time race schedule and the live online coverage of any of their 150+ tracks such as Aqueduct, Arlington Park, Churchill Downs, Del Mar, Gulfstream, Golden Gate Fields, Keeneland, Monmouth Park, Santa Anita, Turf Paradise, Saratoga and many more. 

NBC Sports will provide you with the live coverage of Pegasus World Cup--the most-awaited horse race of all time, which you can watch online through New players are advised to sign up for their account to avail their special offers and be ready to place their bets. 

This online horse racing experts also provide a searchable list of all horse racing track lists, results and payout info from around the country and the world for the convenience of your betting scheme. 

The odds for the Pegasus Cup will be determined on the night through a method known as Pari Mutual betting which actually means “amongst ourselves”. This is the best way to describe Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW) which is the betting type of TVG. Common pools for each type of wager in a race are created by the amount bet on each horse or bet type. 

Essentially, a bet placed by a patron is wagering against all the other people betting on the race. The odds will fluctuate depending on how much money is wagered on each horse. In simple terms, the shorter the odds means the higher the racer get the bets and most likely known and will be the winner. 

What’s more to this is that you will get exclusive access to amazingly in-depth information such as expert analysis, TVG’s pick and tips, details of past performances and even race replace in their Handicapping Store. Addition to everything that has given to you and available at the store are insightful blog posts and of course information on betting on Pegasus World Cup and other races. They also offer live promotions and wager rewards for their members. 

Members, new players? Are you ready for 2019’s Pegasus World Cup Championship Series? 

Place your bets wisely and legally with TVG.

Saturday, 29 December 2018

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

betting, Uri Geller, Casino
It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 

''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 

''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''

I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gamble in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different to another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 

''I don't like losing'' 

I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 

''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book.It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Kyllachy Wins Nunthorpe Stakes For Henry Candy (2002)

Kyllachy Wins Nunthorpe Stakes For Henry Candy (2002)
Foaled on February 25, 1998, and named after the country estate of William Mackintosh, Lord Kyllachy, in the Scottish Highlands, Kyllachy was a strong, good quartered individual, who raced exclusively over the minimum trip and was renowned for his blistering acceleration. In fact, in his four-year-old season, he was hailed as the most exciting British sprinter since Lochsong – Cartier Champion Sprinter in 1993 and 1994 – and the best horse in Europe over 5 furlongs.

Owned by Thurloe Thoroughbreds and Cheveley Park Stud and trained by Henry Candy at Kingston Warren near Wantage, Oxfordshire, Kyllachy was sired by high-class sprinter Pivotal, out of Pretty Poppy, by Song. He was a fair, if unremarkable, juvenile but, nonetheless, made a perfect start to his racing career when winning a lowly median auction maiden stakes race, under Chris Rutter, at Chepstow on his debut on August 10, 2000. He was also successful in a 0-100 handicap at Sandown on his three-year-old debut; off a handicap mark of 90, he cruised into the lead, under Kieren Fallon, passing the furlong marker and won easily, by 5 lengths, from Elsie Plunkett, trained by Richard Hannon Snr.

However, it was not until 2002, when ridden on all five starts by young Irishman Jamie Spencer, that Kyllachy began the rise through the ranks that was to take him to the top of the sprinting tree. In April, Kyllachy readily won a 0-110 handicap at Newbury by 1¾ lengths, off a handicap mark of 103 and, consequently, started 2/1 favourite on his next outing, in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket, the following month. His first start in Pattern company was a winning one, but only just; having been held up, Kyllachy barely came out best in a five-way photograph for first place, winning by a short head, a short head, a neck and a short head. 

Nevertheless, Kyllachy was stepped up in class again in the Temple Stakes at Sandown in June, for which he was sent off 9/2 third favourite behind 4/1 joint favourites Invincible Spirit and Misraah. Having employed exaggerated waiting tactics at Newmarket, Spencer appear more inclined to allow Kyllachy his head on this occasion and, having made headway on the wide outside with two furlongs to run, the pair strode clear in the closing stages to beat Vision Of Night by 4 lengths, with Smokin Beau and Bahamian Pirate – who’d finished second and third at Newmarket – trailing in their wake. 

The partnership attempted to extend their winning run to four in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot just over two weeks later, for which Kyllachy started 11/10 favourite. He travelled easily throughout but, having been denied a clear run and switched inside in the closing stages, had to settle for a never-nearer third, beaten a head and half a length, behind Dominica and Continent. 

The moral victor at Ascot, in the eyes of most observers, Kyllachy faced both Dominica and Continent again when stepped up to Group One company for the first time in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York in August. He started 3/1 favourite to reverse the Ascot form and so he did, but not without a daring, nay, audacious piece of riding by Jamie Spencer. 

Drawn in stall 15 of 17, on the near side, Spencer deliberately missed the break, dropped Kyllachy in last and started to tack across to the far side rail. As a result of the manoeuvre, Spencer was, by his own admission, 10 or 15 lengths behind the leaders at one point but, when asked for maximum effort, Kyllachy demonstrated his trademark acceleration, forging ahead close home to beat Golden Jubilee Stakes winner Malhub by half a length. Sadly, his first Group One win was his last. Recurrent soreness behind his off-fore knee, attributed to bruising, interrupted his preparation for the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp and he was retired, having won six of his 12 races and over £211,000 in prize money.

Thursday, 6 December 2018

How Do You Make A Tip Selection?

So What Do you Know?
Interesting story. 

A friend asked one of his mates: ''How do you pick a horse to bet?''

He replied: ''Like everyone else!.''

For most people, this may sound like a fair answer. It's what someone would probably say in reply. Perhaps if they had thought about how they actually make a selection by writing down their approach, they may be surprised how much work goes into this process. Conversely, they may not be any great process at all. 

''I like the sound of that horse's name!''

In truth, I think such a reply ''Like everyone else...'' is quite humorous in ways if not a little naive. I wouldn't be too critical about it, because it was a quick answer to a quick question. However, if they sat down for thirty minutes and still gave the same answer, I would be more critical in the sense that I would question whether such a perception can help make their betting pay. This self-assessment can help people learn.

Everyone has a different style of betting and making their tip selection(s). It could be as unique as your fingerprint. You have your way which makes you different. There isn't any right or wrong. It is just how you work and process information.     

However, how each person actually comes about making a selection can vary to the extreme. If I wrote down each stage of my process (and the understanding behind each) it would equate to a mammoth amount of data. From my perspective, this isn't observed because it is implicit. The difference between a successful gambler and one who fails can be understood from this very process. Not to say that a simplistic approach cannot yield winners. I know a number of significant trainer statistics which I can almost guarantee year in year out will result in a nice points profit. It is as simple as noting a horse/trainer at a given point in time. I won't say any more than that because it's not in my interests to detail the facts. 

If you want to understand your procedure, then write down each thought as you think. It's not easy to be objective and detail your stream of consciousness but it can be revealing. In some respects, your knowledge of horse racing is like someone revising for a test. If your knowledge is thin, you may well struggle to achieve a pass rate let alone distinction. 

However, it never pays to limit others. If someone makes their racing pay then they are correct. Even if you can't understand their process or just have an idea it can't work doesn't mean you are correct. It is foolish to try and assess anyone without data. As the scientific quote details: without objective testing theories are only guess however good. Limit someone at your cost because they may give you a knowing smile and think I know what I'm saying for a fact, Bozo.