Casinos, Horse Racing and Woolly Sheep!

Well, I'm back from Great Yarmouth's Eastern Festival. Three days of racing action and a good time had by all at the casino in the evening. I must admit, I do enjoy the brick and mortar casinos but for those who love playing online, take a look at https://www.novibet.co.uk/casino and follow lucky number 33 on the roulette which served me very well on the Norfolk coast. A single number and corner is a good plan because if you get lucky it pays well.  

Looking at the result for today's racing. Plenty of two-year-old races to review. A number slip into two divisions. Nine juvenile races in a little over two hours!

These backends two-year-old races reveal a mixed bag of horses. Those fit and primed for the day, others sent out for a run, while a few look more like sheep.

Always love John Frankham's quote: ''That one looks a bit woolly!''

So what have we seen on this autumn afternoon? Perhaps a couple of two-year-olds who will be winning sooner rather than later - most probably next start. Ideal betting opportunities to get stuck into.

1:30 Nottingham - 

Keep an eye on Karl Burke's Exalted Angel. This bay colt, a son of Dark Angel, is held in some regard by connections and seriously backed from 14/1 [Betfair] to 4/1 SP with bookmakers. He ran on well, finishing third. I suspect connections were half anticipating a win. Will go well on his second start. A decent prospect. 

1:40 Salisbury - 

A fair course to spot talented two-year-olds. Ed Walker is a superb trainer to follow and Ginistrelli is worth putting in your notebook. This bay colt is a son of Frankel out of a twice-winning mare. Racing in the familiar silks of Bjorn Nielson & East Wind Racing Ltd, this 475,000 guinea yearling purchase ran on with a purpose to finish fourth in the hands of Gerald Mosse. Definitely, a horse you want to be with next time out. 

The Best Grand National Winners

The nation's favourite race. 

You don't need too many guesses considering the name is in the title of this post. But even without that helpful reminder, it's a horse race like no other. 

The 2018 Grand National Countdown - Saturday 14th April | 5:15pm. 

The Grand National was inaugurated in 1839 at Aintree, Liverpool. A race of legendary status. Four and a half miles, thirty fences, obstacles which test the skills and ability of man and horse. A race of hard knocks, dirty noses and mud-spattered faces. 

In recent years, the highlight of the National Hunt calendar has seen many changes which respect the welfare of these beautiful thoroughbreds and jockeys who contest this racing spectacular. It is much safer than days of old which saw Red Rum win three times. 

Forty brave horses & jockeys await this day. Excited owners, trainers and an apprehensive betting public are hopeful of a win.   

Form horse, a favourite backer, or love a horse's colourful racing silks, it is your chance to bet. One thing is guaranteed, one of forty horses will make headline news.

Did you know that 5 horses have won the Grand National at odds of 100/1? 

With total prize money over £1000,000, it's no surprise the best horses take part. 

''Even the most unlucky punter on earth has a chance of taking the spoils'' 

This historic race has revealed a truth stranger than fiction.  

3 memorable winners:


Red Rum - Trained by Ginger McCain  

The Grand National wouldn't be the race it is today without one very special, talented horse.

Red Rum. This bay gelding made his name winning three times in 1973, 1974 & 1977. In addition, he finished runner-up in 1975 & 1976. He also won the Scottish National in 1974.

Bio: Foaled on 3rd May 1965. In 1966 Red Rum was bought for just 400 guineas. Later, he was purchased by Ginger McCain for Noel le Mare for 6000 guineas. Two days later, while trotting on Southport beach, he was found to be lame. His trainer stated the sea water helped improve his well-being, a remedy used with old carthorses. In his career, he never fell in 100 races. Red Rum is the only horse to win the National three times. 

A true legend. 

Interesting fact: Red Rum won on the Flat and was ridden twice in his career by Lester Piggott. 

Tipperary Tim - Trained by Joseph Dodd

One of the luckiest horses to win the Grand National. 

Tipperary Tim.

Bio: The 1928 Grand National. Before the race, one of the opposition shouted out to the jockey of Tipperary Tim: ''Billy boy, you'll only win if all the others fall down!'' He must have tempted fate, as 41 of the 42 of the starters fell. Eventually, only two horses completed the course. 

Interesting fact: Tipperary Tim is one of 5 horses to have won at odds of 100/1.

Aldaniti  - Trained by Josh Gifford 

The ultimate story of man and horse.

Bio: Aldaniti a chestnut gelding recovering from a career-threatening injury and his jockey, Bob Champion, battling cancer. Their emotive story illustrated the bravery of man and horse. They won the 1981 Grand National touching the hearts of a nation. 

Interesting fact: Their story was made into a film. Champions was released in 1983 starring John Hurt. 

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 

''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 

''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''

I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gamble in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different to another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 

''I don't like losing'' 

I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 

''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book.It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

5 Dark Horses Catching Pigeons on the Gallops

With the two-year-old season into full swing, we have our eye on a number of exciting juveniles that are yet to make their debut or relatively unexposed – basically winners in waiting. 

On trainer who ticks all the boxes is Karl Burke, who does exceptionally well at Spigott Lodge, Coverham, Leyburn, North Yorkshire. He is particularly able at placing horses to win and his opinion is worthy of note. This stable likes to gamble so it is a good idea to follow the money, especially for those who like horse racing and betting. These horses are going to be winners for sure, and placing a wager online is a good idea for all horse betting lovers around the world.

Readers may remember his exceptional filly Quiet Reflection, owned by Ontoawinner syndicate. She proved a talented juvenile who went on to win the Group 1 Common Wealth Cup at Royal Ascot. 

Commanding Officer (sadly, fatally injured)

This British-bred colt is a son of Poet's Voice in the ownership of Clipper Logistics. This yearling cost 34,000 euros after a paltry sum of 800 guineas as a foal. Interesting to note that connections have entered this February foal has been entered for the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) in Ireland. While these future entries are no guarantee of ability there is a fair chance this horse is held in some regard. Stallion Poet's Voice was best over one mile while the mare never raced.

Kadar 

This son of Scat Daddy was born on 1st January, so could be forward compared with his stable mates of the same age group. He is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited who are significant buyers and this January foal cost 700,000 euros when purchased at the breeze-up sales (2yo). His sales price rose markedly from a yearling tag of $195,000. The mare Kaloura, won on debut in France, winning twice at listed class in a seven-race career. Once again, this youngster has received a National Stakes (Group 1), which is to be run at the Curragh on the 16th September 2018. 

Oak Park 

The final two-year-old of the trio is Oak Park. This chestnut colt is a is sired by Sea The Stars in the ownership of Mrs Maureen Gittens, who is a loyal patron of the Burk stable. She has owned a number of very talented horses over the years including Mjjack, a big earning in the last couple of seasons. Interesting to note that this horse was not sold for 170,000 guineas as a foal but then sold for 100,000 guineas as a yearling (vendor). This colt is entered for the National Stakes (Group 1). Could well be visiting the winner's enclosure this season.

 A few form horses of interest for the trainer with race experience: 

Havana Ooh Na Na

I'm sure the stable considered this brother to Havana Grey a potential winner on debut at Hamilton. However, that was far from the case when this son of Havana Gold finished last of four over the five furlong trip. A well backed juvenile, this chestnut colt was slow from the stalls and struggling to find his stride or make any inroads on the eventual winner I Believe In You. Intriguing to note this February foal had been earmarked for the Dragon Stakes Listed race at Sandown – won by his full brother Havana grey. That race has come and gone, which was a wise decision for connections but it does give the impression Havana Ooh Na Na does have a level of ability even though his debut effort didn't inspire confidence. Definitely a horse to keep note of and could be a bet next start when I suspect a big run will be on the cards. 

Blissful Beauty 

This bay filly has raced twice and went very close in a competitive race at Deauville, France. Karl Burke has done well with his two-year-olds this season with noted performers Life Of Riley, Little Kim, Shine So Bright & Comedy.

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Friday's 2YO Racing Tips

Plenty of two-year-old races to look at here. 

Let's see if we can put an each-way double or treble up with a fighting chance. 

2:05 Ascot - 

7f Charbonnel Et Walker British EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 3) (2yo)

Going: Good

Runners: 11

Debutantes come in two forms: easy winners or poor losers. Fair enough, plenty fall in between. Prince Eiji is of interest for Roger Varian. This truly expensive colt cost 2,600,000 guineas. This son of Dubawi is well respected in the stable. There was a lot to like about Bangkok who went close on debut for Andrew Balding. That runner may give value to Prince Eiji at each-way odds. It may be a weakness if drifting markedly in the betting. However, I would be surprised if this two-year-old doesn't have ability. 

Prince Eiji 7/1 1st

4:25 Musselburgh - 

7f (7f33y) Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Going: Good 

Runners: 9 

Mark Johnston holds this British-bred son of Farrh in high regard. Sky Defender was unlucky to be beaten on debut at Goodwood. There was something amiss at York when contesting the Convivial Maiden Stakes. To be favourite for the richest Maiden in Europe says it all. This will be a much easier task. As long as this horse is at best he should prove a hard opponent to beat. 

Sky Defender 5/4 1st

£5 each-way double - Pays £98.7  ''WINNER''

If you fancy a speculative accumulator these four will go well:

2:05 Ascot -  Prince Eiji (7/1)
4:25 Musselburgh - Sky Defender (5/4)
6:15 Kempton - Artois (11/2) 
7:15 Kempton - Dandhu (10/3)

For more 2yo racing news visit Group Horse Daily 

Gosden expected to land a fourth Irish Champion Stakes with Roaring Lion

The month of September has some real treats in store for lovers of British and Irish horse racing with gems such as the Chester Stakes, Irish Cambridgeshire, Sprint Cup, St Leger and Matron Stakes scheduled. They’ll all be settled before we turn our attentions to Leopardstown. 

The 2018 renewal of the much-loved Irish Champion Stakes takes place on Saturday, September 15 at the County Dublin course and the ante-post market currently being offered by bookmakers suggests we are in for a thrilling contest. 

This Group One spectacle run over 1m 2f was first raced back in 1976 when Lester Piggott rode Malacate into the history books. 41 years later Decorated Knight joined that exclusive list of winners when scoring for Roger Charlton under the ride of Andrea Atzeni with a time of 2:08:36.

Who will be the latest team to capture the bulk of a staggering €1.25 million prize pool, €712,500 going to the winner? If you’re happy to place your trust in the hands of traders and follow their thinking, then Roaring Lion is the one to be on. He’s favourite across the board, bet365 offering a market-best price of 6/4 in the most recent horse racing odds. 

It’s difficult to argue against that stance, too, with the jolly heading to track boasting some impressive stats. The eye-catching three-year-old colt has won six of his first ten outings, placing in the top trio another three times. 

John Gosden’s grey made his bow with a win around Newmarket last summer in a Novice Stakes and he got a taste for the winning feeling, reeling off three victories in his first three starts before falling to Saxon Warrior, nudged by a head in the Racing Post Trophy Stakes at Doncaster over a mile in October.

It took over half a year before followers saw Roaring Lion back in the winner’s enclosure, cracking the Dante Stakes at York in May and he goes into the Irish Champion Stakes sniffing out a hat-trick, having won each of his last two. 

The double started with a win in the Coral Eclipse when going to post a 7/4 bookies’ favourite and that was followed with a 3 ¼ length score over Poet’s Word to clinch the Group One Juddmonte only last month off a handy SP 3/1.

If following the market, backers will not only be excited by Roaring Lion’s form, they’ll also take heart from trainer John Gosden’s past efforts in this race. The 67-year-old has won some major titles in his time and trained three Irish Champion Stakes rulers already. That started with Muhtarram in 1993 and both The Fugue (2013) and Golden Horn (2015) were added to the list. Are we set for number four? 

His main danger, according to the betting, is expected to come in the shape of Poet’s Word who was second last year, beaten by ½ a length, and Saxon Warrior who has won half of his first eight, but hasn’t stuck his head in front in any of his last four. Poet’s Word is available in places at 5/1 with Saxon Warrior sure to attract attention at a chunky 11/2.

Will Poet's Word Claim Irish Champions Stakes Redemption?

Poet’s Word has enjoyed an outstanding season for Sir Michael Stoute and will be looking to end his flat campaign on a high note with a win at the Irish Champion Stakes in September. The Irish horse has won all three races of his races in England this term, and will be eyeing another victory in his next outing when he returns to home soil for the meet at Leopardstown. 

Stoute’s charge will be facing a lot of impressive competitors in the race. Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion and Cracksman will all be vying for the place in the winners’ circle. As a result, Poet’s Word will have to work extremely hard to notch his fourth triumph on the bounce, with the bay horse’s odds coming in at 3/1 in the horse racing betting at William Hill, although that will change before the horses are lined up and ready for the off. 

Poet’s Word made a real charge to win the Irish Champion Stakes last season. With James Doyle in the saddle, he made a surge down the final stretch of the race, only to be beaten by outsider Decorated Knight for the crown by half-a-length. The Champion Stakes at Ascot proved to be the same story, only on this occasion he and the rest of the field were comfortably beaten by Cracksman. 

The five-year-old put forward a decent performance in Meydan to start the new term, placing second behind Hawkbill in the Dubai Sheema Classic. The race allowed him to find his form for the start of the English flat campaign, beginning at Sandown Park in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. Ryan Moore took to the saddle and helped his charge control the race from start-to-finish. He was able to keep pace with the leader at a comfortable pace before moving ahead with one furlong remaining. The Irish horse powered down the straight to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

He carried that form into his race of the season at Royal Ascot. Poet’s Word faced a familiar opponent in Cracksman, who was considered the favourite for the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. Doyle reclaimed his position on Stoute’s charge, although the race did not begin how he would have liked as the Irish horse was slightly off the pace in fifth. Poet’s Word found the space on the outside and was able to pull into contention before finding an extra gear down the stretch. He had the speed to pull away to finish ahead of his rival by two-and-three-quarter lengths. 

Poet’s Word faced off against his stable-mate Crystal Ocean at the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. The Irish horse had a poor start to the race as he was held up in the rear, but Doyle managed to pull him away from the cluttered field into space on the outside. He made gradual headway two furlongs to pull within striking distance of his rival. Poet’s Word just had the pace down the stretch to beat out Crystal Ocean for the win, clinching the win by a neck. He has the proven quality to win the Irish Champion Stakes and the Irish horse should be able to go one further and claimed the crown in September.

Group Horse: Across The Sea Goes In For Tate

It's funny how horse racing works. 

Sometimes things don't go to plan and one, two, three runs it still hasn't quite happened. Take James Tate's Across The Sea who was clearly well regarded by the stable. This bay daughter of Dubawi, in the ownership of Saeed Manana, was fancied on her first three starts but disappointed. Second and third start definitely muddied the water which led to an official rating of just 69, which is barely above the plating class. When you consider this horse had been given a group entry which details some merit. Anyway, compared to a Novice Stakes, a nursery looked a good alternative and so it seemed. Across The Sea won well by two-and-a-half lengths at odds of 9/2. Sometimes a disappointing run or two can be the best thing for punters.  

6:00 Windsor Racing Tips (6th August)

An Auction Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good to firm going.  

Fourteen two-year-olds take part. 

A couple of outsiders that may have a chance. My brother is interested in Mark Usher's Padura Brave. This bay filly is a daughter of Havana Gold. She cost 11,500 guineas at the yearling sales. She started at 50/1 when making her debut at Newbury when finishing a creditable 8th, beaten just over five lengths. Not a bad looker for a filly. Usher doesn't go crazy with his debutantes and they often improve quite markedly for the first run. She is relatively fancied today but may drift a touch in the betting being from an unfashionable but well capable yard. A few places behind Tom Clover's Dawn Affair, so that could well be a positive and see the price touch decent double-figure odds. It's not the easiest of horses to assess but the family have seen a good few winners. 

Half interested in Stuart Williams Gregarious Girl. This bay daughter of Gregorian is a decent looker, too. Racing in the familiar silks of J W Parry, she was priced 25/1 on debut at Great Yarmouth when ridden by Milly Naseb claiming a valuable 5lb. She was slowly into stride, keen, but joined the lead at the two furlong pole before tiring in the closing stages to finish last of seven. I see there has been a little bit of money for this horse backed from 25/1 - 18/1. Another speculative bet who needs a touch of faith to back. 

The favourite, Lively Lydia, is trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton. This filly has run well on two starts and sets a fair standard from a plum draw in stall one.