Friday, 7 September 2018

Friday's 2YO Racing Tips

2yo horse racing analysis
Plenty of two-year-old races to look at here. 

Let's see if we can put an each-way double or treble up with a fighting chance. 

2:05 Ascot - 

7f Charbonnel Et Walker British EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 3) (2yo)

Going: Good

Runners: 11

Debutantes come in two forms: easy winners or poor losers. Fair enough, plenty fall in between. Prince Eiji is of interest for Roger Varian. This truly expensive colt cost 2,600,000 guineas. This son of Dubawi is well respected in the stable. There was a lot to like about Bangkok who went close on debut for Andrew Balding. That runner may give value to Prince Eiji at each-way odds. It may be a weakness if drifting markedly in the betting. However, I would be surprised if this two-year-old doesn't have ability. 

Prince Eiji 7/1 1st

4:25 Musselburgh - 

7f (7f33y) Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Going: Good 

Runners: 9 

Mark Johnston holds this British-bred son of Farrh in high regard. Sky Defender was unlucky to be beaten on debut at Goodwood. There was something amiss at York when contesting the Convivial Maiden Stakes. To be favourite for the richest Maiden in Europe says it all. This will be a much easier task. As long as this horse is at best he should prove a hard opponent to beat. 

Sky Defender 5/4 1st

£5 each-way double - Pays £98.7  ''WINNER''

If you fancy a speculative accumulator these four will go well:

2:05 Ascot -  Prince Eiji (7/1)
4:25 Musselburgh - Sky Defender (5/4)
6:15 Kempton - Artois (11/2) 
7:15 Kempton - Dandhu (10/3)

For more 2yo racing news visit Group Horse Daily 

Monday, 3 September 2018

Gosden expected to land a fourth Irish Champion Stakes with Roaring Lion

Roaring Lion
The month of September has some real treats in store for lovers of British and Irish horse racing with gems such as the Chester Stakes, Irish Cambridgeshire, Sprint Cup, St Leger and Matron Stakes scheduled. They’ll all be settled before we turn our attentions to Leopardstown. 

The 2018 renewal of the much-loved Irish Champion Stakes takes place on Saturday, September 15 at the County Dublin course and the ante-post market currently being offered by bookmakers suggests we are in for a thrilling contest. 

This Group One spectacle run over 1m 2f was first raced back in 1976 when Lester Piggott rode Malacate into the history books. 41 years later Decorated Knight joined that exclusive list of winners when scoring for Roger Charlton under the ride of Andrea Atzeni with a time of 2:08:36.

Who will be the latest team to capture the bulk of a staggering €1.25 million prize pool, €712,500 going to the winner? If you’re happy to place your trust in the hands of traders and follow their thinking, then Roaring Lion is the one to be on. He’s favourite across the board, bet365 offering a market-best price of 6/4 in the most recent horse racing odds

It’s difficult to argue against that stance, too, with the jolly heading to track boasting some impressive stats. The eye-catching three-year-old colt has won six of his first ten outings, placing in the top trio another three times. 


John Gosden’s grey made his bow with a win around Newmarket last summer in a Novice Stakes and he got a taste for the winning feeling, reeling off three victories in his first three starts before falling to Saxon Warrior, nudged by a head in the Racing Post Trophy Stakes at Doncaster over a mile in October.

It took over half a year before followers saw Roaring Lion back in the winner’s enclosure, cracking the Dante Stakes at York in May and he goes into the Irish Champion Stakes sniffing out a hat-trick, having won each of his last two. 

The double started with a win in the Coral Eclipse when going to post a 7/4 bookies’ favourite and that was followed with a 3 ¼ length score over Poet’s Word to clinch the Group One Juddmonte only last month off a handy SP 3/1.

If following the market, backers will not only be excited by Roaring Lion’s form, they’ll also take heart from trainer John Gosden’s past efforts in this race. The 67-year-old has won some major titles in his time and trained three Irish Champion Stakes rulers already. That started with Muhtarram in 1993 and both The Fugue (2013) and Golden Horn (2015) were added to the list. Are we set for number four? 

His main danger, according to the betting, is expected to come in the shape of Poet’s Word who was second last year, beaten by ½ a length, and Saxon Warrior who has won half of his first eight, but hasn’t stuck his head in front in any of his last four. Poet’s Word is available in places at 5/1 with Saxon Warrior sure to attract attention at a chunky 11/2.

Monday, 27 August 2018

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

betting, Uri Geller, Casino
It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 



''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 


''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''



I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gamble in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different to another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 


''I don't like losing'' 


I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 


''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book.It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

Monday, 20 August 2018

Will Poet's Word Claim Irish Champions Stakes Redemption?

Will Poet's Word Claim Irish Champions Stakes Redemption?
Poet’s Word has enjoyed an outstanding season for Sir Michael Stoute and will be looking to end his flat campaign on a high note with a win at the Irish Champion Stakes in September. The Irish horse has won all three races of his races in England this term, and will be eyeing another victory in his next outing when he returns to home soil for the meet at Leopardstown. 

Stoute’s charge will be facing a lot of impressive competitors in the race. Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion and Cracksman will all be vying for the place in the winners’ circle. As a result, Poet’s Word will have to work extremely hard to notch his fourth triumph on the bounce, with the bay horse’s odds coming in at 3/1 in the horse racing betting at William Hill, although that will change before the horses are lined up and ready for the off. 

Poet’s Word made a real charge to win the Irish Champion Stakes last season. With James Doyle in the saddle, he made a surge down the final stretch of the race, only to be beaten by outsider Decorated Knight for the crown by half-a-length. The Champion Stakes at Ascot proved to be the same story, only on this occasion he and the rest of the field were comfortably beaten by Cracksman

The five-year-old put forward a decent performance in Meydan to start the new term, placing second behind Hawkbill in the Dubai Sheema Classic. The race allowed him to find his form for the start of the English flat campaign, beginning at Sandown Park in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. Ryan Moore took to the saddle and helped his charge control the race from start-to-finish. He was able to keep pace with the leader at a comfortable pace before moving ahead with one furlong remaining. The Irish horse powered down the straight to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

Poet's Word
He carried that form into his race of the season at Royal Ascot. Poet’s Word faced a familiar opponent in Cracksman, who was considered the favourite for the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. Doyle reclaimed his position on Stoute’s charge, although the race did not begin how he would have liked as the Irish horse was slightly off the pace in fifth. Poet’s Word found the space on the outside and was able to pull into contention before finding an extra gear down the stretch. He had the speed to pull away to finish ahead of his rival by two-and-three-quarter lengths. 

Poet’s Word faced off against his stable-mate Crystal Ocean at the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. The Irish horse had a poor start to the race as he was held up in the rear, but Doyle managed to pull him away from the cluttered field into space on the outside. He made gradual headway two furlongs to pull within striking distance of his rival. Poet’s Word just had the pace down the stretch to beat out Crystal Ocean for the win, clinching the win by a neck. He has the proven quality to win the Irish Champion Stakes and the Irish horse should be able to go one further and claimed the crown in September.

Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Group Horse: Across The Sea Goes In For Tate

Saeed bin Suroor
It's funny how horse racing works. 

Sometimes things don't go to plan and one, two, three runs it still hasn't quite happened. Take James Tate's Across The Sea who was clearly well regarded by the stable. This bay daughter of Dubawi, in the ownership of Saeed Manana, was fancied on her first three starts but disappointed. Second and third start definitely muddied the water which led to an official rating of just 69, which is barely above the plating class. When you consider this horse had been given a group entry which details some merit. Anyway, compared to a Novice Stakes, a nursery looked a good alternative and so it seemed. Across The Sea won well by two-and-a-half lengths at odds of 9/2. Sometimes a disappointing run or two can be the best thing for punters.  

Monday, 6 August 2018

6:00 Windsor Racing Tips (6th August)

Mark Usher Horse Racing
An Auction Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good to firm going.  

Fourteen two-year-olds take part. 

A couple of outsiders that may have a chance. My brother is interested in Mark Usher's Padura Brave. This bay filly is a daughter of Havana Gold. She cost 11,500 guineas at the yearling sales. She started at 50/1 when making her debut at Newbury when finishing a creditable 8th, beaten just over five lengths. Not a bad looker for a filly. Usher doesn't go crazy with his debutantes and they often improve quite markedly for the first run. She is relatively fancied today but may drift a touch in the betting being from an unfashionable but well capable yard. A few places behind Tom Clover's Dawn Affair, so that could well be a positive and see the price touch decent double-figure odds. It's not the easiest of horses to assess but the family have seen a good few winners. 

Half interested in Stuart Williams Gregarious Girl. This bay daughter of Gregorian is a decent looker, too. Racing in the familiar silks of J W Parry, she was priced 25/1 on debut at Great Yarmouth when ridden by Milly Naseb claiming a valuable 5lb. She was slowly into stride, keen, but joined the lead at the two furlong pole before tiring in the closing stages to finish last of seven. I see there has been a little bit of money for this horse backed from 25/1 - 18/1. Another speculative bet who needs a touch of faith to back. 

The favourite, Lively Lydia, is trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton. This filly has run well on two starts and sets a fair standard from a plum draw in stall one.  

Saturday, 4 August 2018

1:45 Thirsk Racing Tips (4th August)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 5f on good to soft going. Twelve horses take part. The majority don't hold much water.

Quite an intriguing race. Three Card Trick races in the familiar silks of Guy Reed Racing. Kevin Ryan has given this chestnut son of Piccolo a Gimcrack Stake (Group 2) entry which gives confidence he has ability. I doubt that lofty race is being considered for now unless he wins this in style. He ran well on debut when runner-up to Alan King's Dunkerron who has proven to be a talent, competing at Group class and performing with credit. Three Card Trick re-opposes Michael Dods' Bartle Hall, who proves a very capable filly when backed from huge odds on Betfair before running on well to beat Three Card Trick. Both ran well. Ryan's charge may have gone a stride too fast that day but could well have simply run his race. 

Bartle Hall has to shoulder a winner's penalty which makes life harder. However, she could well improve for that first start. Her jockey wasn't holding back when whipping this horse so dramatic improvement may not be forthcoming.     

Bryan Smart's Moojim is a hot favourite going very close to winning Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes. This Irish-bred gelding was 50/1 that day and by all accounts ran much better than suspected. I just wander if the race was run to suit him that day and may have been slightly flattered. Time may prove I have that completely wrong. However, it does take some explaining to way he struggles to win in normal races and looked limited at times. 

Conclusion: Interesting to see how this pans out. There is a chance Barlie Hall will be outpaced in the early stages and run on with vigour. The win penalty will be a hefty burden. I wouldn't back Moojim because the price looks very short and I think he may have been flattered. This looks out of Bartie Hall and Three Card Trick. The latter has claims considering he has plenty of pace and no win penalty. 

Monday, 23 July 2018

Heading To Great Yarmouth Races

Great Yarmouth Racecourse
There never seems enough time with work, rest and little play. However, that will be changing later this month when a few of us venture to Great Yarmouth for a day at the races. 

It's a superb location being on the Norfolk coast. Plenty of hotels, historic pier, fun fair, greyhound racing & racecourse - even a couple of casinos for those who love the spin of the roulette wheel. Talking of casinos, take a look at this bgo bonus and promo code. I've always enjoyed a little bit of flutter and a win is even sweeter than the rock on sale down Regent Street.  

One thing to note, Yarmouth is a favourites course. In fact, so many jollies win at this track you need to take note of the horse at the head of the betting. Since the straight mile has been upgraded the quality of horse has risen quite significantly. Well, definitely larger fields. To be fair, this venue always had a reputation for quality thoroughbreds. Hardly surprising when the likes of Sir Henry Cecil frequented the course in the good, old days. A true gentleman, who took the time to chat with everyday racegoers who remember and cherish his words. 

These days, a new breed of trainer walk the turf. Remember the late Michael Jarvis? His once assistant trainer, Roger Varian, is now a leading light and I keep my eyes open for his two-year-old debutantes. Few of his better juveniles win at big odds but a winner is a winner.  

Taking a look at Varian's better juveniles, I've got a couple worthy of your time. Whether they will appear at Yarmouth is another thing but here goes. 

Farnham 

This bay filly is a daughter of Farrh out of an Irish-bred dam called Purple Tiger - who never raced. However, Farham is no slouch which a 110,000 Guinea sales tag details. This May foal is owned by Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to good horses. They had done well with Soldier's Call, a two-year-old trained by Archie Watson. In addition, to a decent pedigree, Farnham has been given a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry. This is one of two entrants for the trainer. The other horse Yourtimeisnow ran a cracking race on debut at Newmarket when third, beaten less than one length. This indicates the judgement of Varian and why you may be wise to put Farnham in your mythical notebook. 

Here to a lovely day at Yarmouth races.

Thursday, 19 July 2018

Ebor Festival Betting

Ebor Festival 2018
A ‘day out at the races’ is a common favourite pastime in Britain, with punters travelling to many of the fantastic courses all across the nation to place their bets on the horses at some of the best and most enjoyable festivals that the sport has to offer. 

The Ebor Festival at York Racecourse is one of the last major meetings in the horse-racing flat season, and naturally there will be plenty of punters seeking the best tips for the festival at the end of August: The Winners Enclosure provide free tips and predictions on all major horse racing meetings and continue to provide some of the best insight into the sport on a daily basis. 

Types of betting at Ebor 

There are several different types of bets that punters could place at Ebor: the popular choice amongst racegoers is picking out a single horse in each race and backing it to win. There are ways that you can narrow down your selection for these types of bets – by searching for a NAP. Most tipsters will provide a NAP for each race day, and The Winners Enclosure’s NAP of the Day page provides their pick for that day’s racing. NAPs are important for tipsters in showing consistency with their victories, so it is unlikely that any NAP has ridiculously large odds, but the price usually accurately reflects their chances of winning.

Punters may want to spread their betting differently however, and for that there is the Lucky 15. A Lucky 15 is made up of fifteen different bets in one selection, consisting of four singles and trebles, six doubles and a four-fold accumulator. The beauty of a Lucky 15 bet is that with all the bets running alongside each other, just because you lose one part of the selection does not necessarily mean you will not get any returns provided that another part of the Lucky 15 lands. As such, there is quite a lot of potential for a Lucky 15 to land some big returns for punters. Any punter at Ebor that is looking to win big might find some fortune in a Lucky 15 bet. 

Tips for Ebor 

As previously mentioned, The Winners Enclosure is the best place to visit for Ebor Festival tips as the meeting draws closer. Odds can fluctuate in horse-racing, but as is usually the case with antepost betting, they can shorten closer to the race if big money is going on one horse – so if your plan is to have a flutter at Ebor, keep your eyes peeled over the coming weeks.

Monday, 16 July 2018

5 Dark Horses Catching Pigeons on the Gallops

With the two-year-old season into full swing, we have our eye on a number of exciting juveniles that are yet to make their debut or relatively unexposed – basically winners in waiting. 

On trainer who ticks all the boxes is Karl Burke, who does exceptionally well at Spigott Lodge, Coverham, Leyburn, North Yorkshire. He is particularly able at placing horses to win and his opinion is worthy of note. This stable likes to gamble so it is a good idea to follow the money, especially for those who like horse racing and betting. These horses are going to be winners for sure, and placing a wager online is a good idea for all horse betting lovers around the world.

Readers may remember his exceptional filly Quiet Reflection, owned by Ontoawinner syndicate. She proved a talented juvenile who went on to win the Group 1 Common Wealth Cup at Royal Ascot. 

Commanding Officer 

This British-bred colt is a son of Poet's Voice in the ownership of Clipper Logistics. This yearling cost 34,000 euros after a paltry sum of 800 guineas as a foal. Interesting to note that connections have entered this February foal has been entered for the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) in Ireland. While these future entries are no guarantee of ability there is a fair chance this horse is held in some regard. Stallion Poet's Voice was best over one mile while the mare never raced.

Kadar 

This son of Scat Daddy was born on 1st January, so could be forward compared with his stable mates of the same age group. He is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited who are significant buyers and this January foal cost 700,000 euros when purchased at the breeze-up sales (2yo). His sales price rose markedly from a yearling tag of $195,000. The mare Kaloura, won on debut in France, winning twice at listed class in a seven-race career. Once again, this youngster has received a National Stakes (Group 1), which is to be run at the Curragh on the 16th September 2018. 

Oak Park 

The final two-year-old of the trio is Oak Park. This chestnut colt is a is sired by Sea The Stars in the ownership of Mrs Maureen Gittens, who is a loyal patron of the Burk stable. She has owned a number of very talented horses over the years including Mjjack, a big earning in the last couple of seasons. Interesting to note that this horse was not sold for 170,000 guineas as a foal but then sold for 100,000 guineas as a yearling (vendor). This colt is entered for the National Stakes (Group 1). Could well be visiting the winner's enclosure this season.

 A few form horses of interest for the trainer with race experience: 

Havana Ooh Na Na

I'm sure the stable considered this brother to Havana Grey a potential winner on debut at Hamilton. However, that was far from the case when this son of Havana Gold finished last of four over the five furlong trip. A well backed juvenile, this chestnut colt was slow from the stalls and struggling to find his stride or make any inroads on the eventual winner I Believe In You. Intriguing to note this February foal had been earmarked for the Dragon Stakes Listed race at Sandown – won by his full brother Havana grey. That race has come and gone, which was a wise decision for connections but it does give the impression Havana Ooh Na Na does have a level of ability even though his debut effort didn't inspire confidence. Definitely a horse to keep note of and could be a bet next start when I suspect a big run will be on the cards. 

Blissful Beauty 

This bay filly has raced twice and went very close in a competitive race at Deauville, France. Karl Burke has done well with his two-year-olds this season with noted performers Life Of Riley, Little Kim, Shine So Bright & Comedy.