Monday, 20 May 2019

In-depth Look at Samcro's Winning Chances at Cheltenham's Novice Hurdle

Samcro Cheltenham Novice Hurdle Hope
The Cheltenham Festival is one of the biggest horseracing events this year, and it’s just a few months away. Now, one of the top candidates to dominate the scene is Samcro, an Irish horse that’s hopeful to ace the biggest race of his career.

The recently-held Deloitte Novice Hurdle proved to be a massive success for Samcro after smoothly acing all six victories. This comes as a surprise knowing that the gelding is still six-years-old.

In fact, he even has two more hurdle wins this year, proving that he's all set for the big event this March. If all goes well, then it'll be his first race as a Grade One level racer. But that doesn’t mean that he’s assured victory. It’s because Samcro’s more used to making much shorter trips. Cheltenham is known to have a long race track, making eventual exhaustion likely.

Meanwhile, the horse’s trainer says that Samcro’s in great shape and it makes him very happy that the gelding managed to pull of the previous races with style. He even adds that Shane McCann gets to ride the favorite every day, checking out if it’s in max health and condition.

Indeed, Samcro’s getting a lot of attention and special care, especially that he’s the best chance for victory for his team. As of now, Samcro is the top favorite for Cheltenham’s Supreme Novices Hurdle as he gets a comfortable 6/4 odds edge.

This comes to no surprise as he’s been the top gun on previous race odds as well. He also managed to pull off all his wins with style, letting his opponents trail him with a considerable gap. Meanwhile, Getabird takes the second spot with strong 2/1 odds.

As of now, there’s still no assurance that gelding can overtake the favorite. But one thing’s for sure and that Mullins trained this one right. Trailing the top two horses are If the Cap Fits and Apples Shakira who both have 6/1 odds.

It’s still unclear who’s better between the two, but it seems like Apples Shakira gets the better hand this time knowing that this bay filly is younger and has fresher legs. Nonetheless, no forecast can still assure the one who gets the upper hand.

Then there’s Next Destination trailing with 8/1 odds, followed by Mengli and Laurina who both have 10/1 odds. Duc des Genieveres and Salsaretta also are tied with 12/1 odds.

With these being said, there's no doubt that this year's Cheltenham Festival will be an exciting event to witness. Not only because the world's top horses are going to compete with each other, but because it’s going to be a close game for all participants.

Nonetheless, it would make sense for you first to check out more information. To know what to expect, click here for Cheltenham 2018 page. This gives you a lot of ways to increase your likelihood of winning, in case you’d like to bet. Let’s just hope that the horses will remain fit and healthy before the big day arrives. They most likely will.

Tuesday, 14 May 2019

A Guide to Surviving Early Season Betting

Surviving Early Season Betting
So, the Flat turf season 2018 is underway. 

Those preseason nerves, excitement and anticipation transformed to focus on the here and now. 

The two-year-old season started with the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, just like the good, old days. Testing ground conditions have made the turf even more problematic. 

Those first few weeks, if not months, can be difficult for any age of horse but especially two-year-olds. Considering most early juveniles will be cantering over the winter period the weather can impact on their progress. Also, the going, if running on the turf. It may be a positive if they have soft-ground breeding or a negative if not. Most trainers will not take a chance with a debutante because they want them to have a pleasant introduction. For many, travelling, a change of routine, different environment and hustle and bustle of the racecourse can be a frightening experience. 

But how do we consider betting early season?

I would suggest you take care. The enthusiasm for wanting to bet can be strong (and not always a bad thing). The difficultly being you don't want to look for bets but neither do you want to miss gilt-edge chances. That is the difficulty of guidelines because they need that element of flexibility which says: ''You should bet even when you normally wouldn't''. 

Reasons why you should be careful when betting early season:

1) Even trainers need time to assess the merit of their two-year-old string. Sure, they have older horses to run against and gauge the standard of, perhaps,  their most precocious juvenile. They need a few runners to appreciate their worth. It's a time even the best of the best hold their breath and hope. 

2) Assessing form. Early season form horses can be very deceiving. A horse finishes second and it feels natural to think it has ability. That may be correct or a big mistake. Many of these early form horses will start favourite on their second start and often poor bets with little value. In fact, many will be horrendous bets. Beaten out of sight.

3) Going concerns. As detailed above, these early months can see testing ground conditions on the turf. This makes life difficult on the day and assessing horses when making their second start, which may see them go to race on the all-weather. 

4) Betting on debutantes. Even after years of betting, I am fearful of betting on debutantes. You just never know how they will handle the day. As all the early races are over 5f, a slow start, running awkward on a bend or just very inexperienced may leave you with a mountain to climb. It is a strange fact, but often the best horses have terrible debut runs. I take note of favourites who trail home in last because they often fly next start. 

So what can we look for as positive pointers?

1) Listen to what horse trainers say. All trainers love to get in front of the camera especially when their horses are running well. Mick Channon was buoyant in his view that because Izzer won the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes, they have a decent two-year-old string. It has proven correct with winners and big runs following.

2) Experience counts for a lot. That first start gives a big advantage when opposing debutantes, especially on a turning course. 

3) The intention of the trainer. Trainers are creatures of habit. How do they train their two-year-olds? When do they usually win? You will find that certain trainers never win on debut. Others place their horses to go well on their second start. While most of their chances are price driven. They need to be fancied in the betting. That is true for many but not all. I know trainers who go much better with outsiders than favourites. You simply need to have an understanding of what makes trainers tick. 

4) Keep an eye on significant entries. If there is one pointer which helps identify a talented juvenile it is their race entries. Group Horse Daily details all this information for free this season. We work hard to detail the best two-year-old horses in training. You can take a look at previous year's analysis to appreciate how good this information is. It is exceptional. 

My personal opinion is to be careful betting early season. You should enjoy what you are doing and be confident in your ability which comes from hard work or attaching yourself to people who do the work for you. The best bets always stand out. The only exception I would make about chancing your luck is if you have an inkling a big priced horse could win. You need so few of these selections to win to be in profit that I wouldn't let them pass by without a small bet. 

Wednesday, 8 May 2019

When Lady Luck Catches Your Eye

An interesting topic of conversation. 

You know why people have a fascination with gambling? 

Because they think it's easy money. 

I can tell you now if you honestly think you are going to win at gambling by sheer, blind luck then you are correct, it can happen. 

People looking at websites such as Online Casino Deutschland for all the latest free bets, spins and bonuses. They are like the majority of gamblers hoping they will hit the jackpot. 

We've all seen people winning the lottery. Sure, there is some lucky bloke round the corner from your old grans who needed a larger cheque because they couldn't fit all those zeros. 

The old dear who walked into Tescos and got a scratch card and won a million as she was tucking into a pie. 

Have you ever seen lady luck? Do you know what she looks like, what she wears or her favourite perfume? 

I have this image in mind. She has the style of Coco Channel, her perfume comes from one of those giant bottles you only see in boutique stores. Perfect hair with a flash of purple in the front (pictured, Lady Luck at Great Yarmouth Casino). Without question, she is a beautiful lady. If she brushes past you while buying a scratch card from W H Smiths you will notice that look, touch and sweet, heavenly smell. She is fleeting like willow the wisp, often brushing past one to favour another with a smile on her face. She turns those waiting in line to green-eyed monsters while those she touches feel like a million dollars even if they only get three bells come up on the fruit machine. 

While she is in your presence she is a queen. As she walks past with her head held high, she's a bitch. 

Lady luck will visit everyone at some point in their life. She is only surpassed by skill or knowledge but even then she may make someone a fortune without a moments thought.

The next time you are about to place a bet, buy a scratch card or play at the casino, stop for a moment, look around and see if she is waiting in the wings. If she comes closer, place a bet because this may be your lucky day. 

She is waiting for you...

Wednesday, 17 April 2019

Betty's Hope Misses the Gin...

Free horse racing tips A couple of two-year-old horse races at Beverley, both restricted auction stakes which often go to form horses. 

The two divisions are interesting although not the easiest of races to consider for betting opportunities. 

2:15 Beverley - 

Rod Millman has an interesting juvenile taking part over this 5f sprint in the shape of Betty's Hope, a daughter of Anjaal a bargain buy at just £3,000. This bay filly was no match for Archie Watson's Lady Kermit who showed no signs of greenness at Kempton a couple of weeks back. At this time of year, it is difficult to assess form. The angle here is that Millman's two-year-olds on their second start often go very well. The downside is that they either win or finish unplaced, so if betting, it is probably wise to go for a straight win rather than eachway. In addition, this January foal has a plum draw in stall one. Priced about 7/2, has claims although I will be taking a watching brief unless drifting to bigger odds. 

2:50 Beverley - 

This second division is worth a second look. Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and his two-year-olds are worthy of respect on their second start. Gin Gembre made his debut at Windsor when finishing a credible fourth of nine. There was some money for this son of Dandy Man, which adds to the idea this February foal has an element of ability. This 4,500 euro foal increased in price at the yearling sales (24,000). It is difficult to assess the form of that race although the winner, Chasanda, trained by David Evans, looks a fair filly beating mostly a field of colts. I was left with the impression that Gim Gembre was pretty fit for his debut and ridden with some gusto. Today's race is pretty weak being pretty restrictive, which, as mentioned, favours, form horses. With valuable racecourse experience and a good draw, this looks a fine opportunity. The price doesn't leave much meat on the bone. I think Gin Gembre has very good claims here but the price would need to drift to tempt me to put my hand in my pocket. 

Monday, 15 April 2019

Monday Racing Update (15th April)

Ontoawinner horse racing syndicate
The two-year-old season is slowly gathering pace. It can be a tricky time of the year if you are searching for bets. They are usually very good or very bad. The classic Mark Johnston type of debutante which equates to an easy winner or poor loser. 

He has started the season with spirit. A fair winner in Xcelente at Thirsk, and a few others running into places. 

A couple of two-year-old races for Monday. 

2:30 Windsor - A big old Fillies' Novice Auction Stakes. Most look pretty cheap buys. I see a couple have come in for money. 

Archie Watson's Lambeth Walk could well start odds on. He has notched up a few winners with Electric Ladyland, Lady Kermit (who flew home), and another nice prospect in Exclusively who had a battle with Tim Easterby's Iva Go at Redcar, the pair drawing clear of the field. You will notice that all three winners have been priced 4/1 & less SP. Saxon Gate Stable must have a sharp string of juveniles. Watson has done remarkably well with his horses since coming on the training scene in 2016. Last year, saw a smart string of juveniles including Shumookhi, Nate The Great and Soldiers Call. The latter winning four of his eight starts including a Listed, Group 3  & Group 2 (Flying Childers) and narrowly denied at Group 1 when third in the  Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines in France.

It's very unlikely Lambeth Walk will achieve those dizzy heights but time will tell her story. The stable is in tremendous form with his two-year-olds and they go particularly well when strongly fancied in the betting. 

The other horse for money is Tom Dascombe's, Dr Simpson. This bay daughter of Dandy Man has been well backed on the exchanges with a few punters bagging odds as big as 6/1. I noticed someone laid a bet of £1000 at 4.6 (7/2), so there is no lack of optimism and still plenty of people wanting similar odds for good money. His debutantes have decent stats at 7/1 & less SP. They can win at bigger odds too so a very capable trainer who know what it takes to win a race. Dr Simpson will need to be pretty smart to win from the draw (1) (see the note, below) unless the going changes or the horses run down the middle of the course or far rail. It is a wide draw with fourteen runners, but a sharp two-year-old can often negate that if speedy enough from the stalls. I must say, it would put me off betting. 

I will be taking a watching brief. 

Note: Head in the cloud regarding the draw...saying  Dr Simpson had a wide draw. Must have regressed about 20-years as obviously it is against the stands' side rail. Apologies for being half asleep when writing.  

2:20 Pontefract - 

Sees a seven-horse race with three two-year-olds once raced. Mark Johnston's Alminoor was sent off favourite at Musselburgh and I doubt punters or connections thought they would finish second. Bryan Smart's Proper Beau battled hard and won at odds of 10/1, the duo pulling many lengths clear of the third (who has been beaten since). 

Alminoor will start at prohibitive odds (depends how you bet) but looks a tough nut to crack. 

Danny Ocean is quite interesting. I would be tempted to have each way bet on this horse if drifting to fair odds (5/1), but rather have three places. This son of Dandy Man was backed on debut at Leicester but pretty clueless, outpaced in the early stages, but ran on well in the closing stages to finish a creditable third. In the ownership of Ontoawinner, Strecker and Burke, he is likely to improve a good deal for that first effort and this stiffer test of stamina will be appreciated. There is a slight concern he will be outpaced in the early stages, but it is often a strength to finish a race at two as many go full throttle and tire at the finish.

To be fair, both the first and second favourites look price to chance. If betting on the exchanges, there may be a chance of getting much better odds on Danny Ocean if Johnston's colt is heavily backed but that is about the only angle I can see to bet. 

Richard Fahey has started the season in a similar vein of form to Archie Watson. Show Me Show Me (owned by Ontoawinner) took the Brocklesby Stakes in authoritative style. While Bendy Spirit represented the stable. He showed good pace before tiring markedly in the final furlong to finish ninth. He was priced as though needing the run. Fahey Brocklesby entrant/runners in previous years have been up to winning standard so I can see this son of Helmet running better today. Certainly, that experience will be a positive and the trainer does well at this course. 

Interesting races. 

Those mentioned are worthy of note but unless I see bigger odds available on Danny Ocean I will be taking a watching brief.  

Monday, 25 March 2019

Bill Turner 2019 Brocklesby Conditions Stakes Winner?

Brocklesby stakes winner Bill Turner 2019
Bill Turner is no stranger when it comes to training two-year-old racehorses, especially when it comes to the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. 

Turner has hit the headlines for many big winners over the years and even for riding a zebra to his local pub in Sherborne, Dorset. 

One race he targets is the 2019 Brocklesby Stakes race and reviewing this year's declarations for the  4:10 Doncaster (30th March) we see this year may be seventh time lucky. 

The first two-year-old contest of the new Flat turf season sees him enter an April foal called Hell Of A Joker, sired by Hellvelyn out of a twice winning mare called Oceanico Dot Com who was in training with Alan Berry. Hell Of A Joker is likely to be heading to Doncaster and if his trainer has anything to do with it, will shine on the day. 

Bill Turner has been very successful in the Brocklesby Stakes over the years with six winners including:

1996 - Indian Spark 

2002 - The Lord 

2006 - Spoof Master 

2008 - Sally's Dilemma

2011 - He's So Cool 

2013 - Mick's Yer Man

Turner admitted he has struggled to compete with the larger stables over the last few years.  

Last year, saw him field Arthur's Spirit (in the ownership of loyal patron E A Brook) priced 10/1. He raced prominently but finished down the field in tenth place. However, he won well at Kempton on his third start under an excellent ride by apprentice jockey Jason Watson receiving 7lb. 

The Lord was a very smart winner of the Brocklesby Stakes for Bill Turner in 2002 who went on to win the Lily Agnes at Chester. This durable horse ran 68 times, winning 8 times and achieving total prize money of over £100,000 and official rating of  105. The best performance success at Listed class. 

Time will tell whether Hell Of A Joker makes the line up on the day of the Brocklesby but you wouldn't bet against Turner fancying his chances to win this race for the seventh time. 

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

Betting Strategy: Can You Defy the Odds of Being Eaten Alive?

So you like to bet.

Everyone has their Modus Operandi. Well, they probably do even if they think they don't. A set way assessing which horse to bet. Even to the point of betting via traditional bookmakers or exchange. 

It is all too easy to think you are betting in a vacuum. 

If you bet online, use your iPhone, tablet or old-school and place your wager at Honest Joe's Turf Accountants. I wonder if some old dear has asked how much it would cost to plant a new lawn! 

I say a vacuum because in many ways we are alone in this world. Just like Billy Joel's fantastic song Piano Man, where he sings: ''Sharing a drink called loneliness but it's better than drinking alone.'' 

Betting can feel that way, too. You place your bet as if somehow whatever you do it's a solitary act, no ripple from the pebble you throw. 

However, make no mistake, we live in a truly competitive world. Whether you back or lay, it is akin to swimming with a shoal of hungry piranhas. If your bet lacks cunning, understanding of the best way to swim the current, hiding places, it is only a matter of time before they sniff you out. When one bites at your toe, you need to have a master plan to eat the fish that's trying to eat you alive. If one gets a taste, you can guarantee plenty will follow until greedy mouthful by greedy mouthful you drop to the bottom of the tank, river or ocean of bets, a skeleton of wishful thinking, hopes and dreams. Your ultimate goal putting cold, hard cash in your pockets. 

As the bookmaker at Great Yarmouth quips: ''Money without work!'' 

With each and every bet, it is like someone somewhere, is watching your every move, anticipating your mistake. 

The collective shoal of piranha doesn't sleep. It smiles at itself in the mirror, using blood-red toothpaste and flosses its immaculate white teeth ready for its grub.

The only way you can defy this killer shoal is to know that little more. To smile back with an understanding which says: ''You fancy trying your luck?'' 

Without question, knowledge is power. 

If someone wants to take your bet you have to question why? When bookmakers are keen to take your bets they are fishing to see if you are a piranha, great white shark or an oily Dover sole. If you are the latter, they will welcome you like a long-lost friend. They may even invite you to one of their corporate dues at the races because you are a ''valued client''. You prop up the bar with a turbot, red snapper, cockney jellied eel and a smoked salmon who loves to chat up the girls. 

The story of most people's betting is very similar to a goldfish with a memory span of three seconds. Just long enough to see your horse cross the finishing line - unplaced - to forget long enough to place a bet that longterm is a lifelong loser. So many times people complain about betting as though it is a curse. Funny how people are only up in arms when they lose. In truth, gambling my tempt, be seen as the devil's work, but it is a problem of the person. Without discipline what isn't a potential problem? Alcohol, Anadin, Smoking or whatever fixation embeds itself like a glorious magic leech which at first soothed your mind then addled your brain. 

Here is the answer to the question. If you keep betting and losing money isn't there a little voice - let's imagine it is a guppy playing the banjo - that sings The Gambler song: ''Know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to run...''

You may fancy yourself being a great white shark in a small pond. Those piranhas don't scare you. But when the sun gets hotter and the water begins to evaporate, those big teeth, power and attitude mean little as the mudskipper waves goodbye.  

Friday, 1 March 2019

Football, Tennis & Horse Racing Trading on Betfair

Betfair trading odds on football
Random conversation.

Do you use Betfair for your trading? I was chatting with Eric (Winner) the other day and he was asking about the liquidity of the tennis markets.

So, for instance, the current match I am trading is the Gibbs V Brady match and it is on the lower challenger circuit one below the main WTA circuit and it is not televised apart from online and so far there is around £215,000 matched and as an example I laid Brady at 1.46 for a £50 liability then laid again at 1.18 for the same liability to bring the average lay price down to 1.27 and now she is back to 1.66 so I am able to take out my red (liability) and either equalise my profit on either player or leave the profit on Gibbs and slowly take a bit out at a time. Meanwhile, in the German Bundesliga football, I have currently laid under 2.5 goals in the Holsten Kiel V Union Berlin game and will be looking at the laying the current score in the Duisburg V Magdeburg match if the price hits around 1.70 So as you can see it is quite difficult explaining the on a match preview!

Yes, it is difficult to put into words, hey. 

I generally bet each on the horses, win and place, although it depends on the horse and circumstance. I usually put my bet up before the race at half the odds just in case it is substantially backed to have a decent no-lose bet. 

In running, I put my potential win up at 1.11, as an insurance policy just in case it goes close but gets beat. Long term there probably isn't a good reason for this but short term it seems to make sense as to help smooth the way. Nothing worse than having a bet go really short in play and losing. However, there is no right or wrong way of doing most things just a matter of opinion. If there is a profit at the end of the season it is working although there is always room for improvement and why assessments need to be made on all these aspects.

The only exception to this rule is if I bet on a huge priced horse. I've had some I take a speculative punt at 200- 300/1. Those I stick a few thousand up in running at 1/1 and less just to make the most if they go close and lose. 

Interesting to hear how you work.

Yes it is interesting as everyone can trade in a different way and it is finding what is right for you and that is the key, so in terms of tennis I am quite aggressive in my trades but in terms of football I always reduce my liability as soon as I can as I have learned that a very important part for me is protecting my bank and without it there is no trading!

Tuesday, 19 February 2019

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

betting, Uri Geller, Casino
It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 

''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-2. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pence to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 

''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''

I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gambler in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different from another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 

''I don't like losing'' 

I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 

''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book. It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent, you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

Thursday, 7 February 2019

Betting Strategy: The #1 Thing That Works (Discipline)

Betting Strategy: The #1 Thing That Works (Discipline)
For many, betting is not a complex subject.

It takes as little time as scribbling out a betting slip: time, meeting, horse's name and stake. How simple was that? ''I don't see what all the fuss is about. It's as easy as ABC...''

However, the question we need to ask those individuals is: ''Does your betting pay?''.

If it does, then you don't need to read anything else because you've cracked it. Perhaps you've gone one step beyond and have a bot placing bets and making a passive income. You travel from country to country only checking your betting account to see how much money you've won!

Sadly, for most people, this is a dream...

Very few winners in life get there by knowing less. How can you know less but make more? I don't think it is possible unless you have some strange theory using quantum physics.

If you wrote a diary of the process of making a betting selection, what would it reveal? I mean, are we talking about something that could be written on the back of a stamp or enough chapters to write a book? From individual to individual both of those examples are true. However, which one of the two extremes would you like to receive a tip?

Unless you have a strange fetish for losing money, I imagine it would be the latter. So, in the main, we appreciate that being successful takes time. 

Discipline is one of many aspects of being successful. You don't see anyone in the army lacking discipline. It is the foundation of being productive and achieving a goal. Successful betting is the same. As I have said many times, you don't wake up one morning to find you are a professional gambler. If you considered that possibility, I would assess that the individual is a professional fool. I know a lot of people associate being a professional gambler with the definition: betting lots of money on short-priced horses. I've seen it myself. Funny how those people are now doing a 9 - 5 job. I don't say that trying to rub salt into their wounds. 

We are simply dealing with facts.  

From my years of betting I have realised how important discipline is to successful gambling.

In many respects, it is about knowing the answer to a question rather than making a knee-jerk reaction. It can be something as simple as being prepared for an upcoming race whether that day, next week or later that year. It may be having a guide in place which says unless there is an exceptional reason, don't bet odds-on. While your pre-season research details that a given trainer has very little chance of winning if priced over a certain price when racing on debut. 

If I wrote down every aspect of discipline when making an assessment whether to bet or not it would be a complex, fascinating and ''boring'' read. 

That discipline doesn't end with placing a bet. Because there may be reasons why I bet more or lay off the bet. 

The guiding principle of discipline is that long term it will bring greater understanding, opportunity and winning (or making money).   

I have known people who have bet all their life and they would read these words and think it is mumbo jumbo. ''Who needs that? What a waste of time? I just write out my bets, job done!''

Sadly, unless they have something very unusual going on, they lose on a regular basis. In a world of competition, you do not need to be the best just one step ahead of the majority leads to success.