Monday, 15 August 2016

2:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (15th Aug) JOOLS HOLLAND HERE ON SATURDAY MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes (Plus 10) over 6f on standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part, eight with race experience and three debutants.

Quite an open-looking contest. 

Bee Case is likely to start favourite. Hug Palmer's filly is a daughter of Showcasing out of a Galileo mare. She wasn't strongly fancied on debut at Kempton over 6f but far from disgraced when a running-on fourth just two lengths behind the winner. This bay filly was priced 2-1 to win next start at Windsor over the same distance when runner-up to Bahamadam, trained by Even Johnson-Houghton. This filly, herself, has been entered for a few fancy races and for Bee Case to be defeated may not have been a huge disappointment. Johnson-Houghton detailed that the winner was thought to need the race and the fourth that day, Hathfa, didn't quite live up to reputation over the weekend which does give the impression the Windsor race may have been no more than average. Interesting to see how Bee Case goes here.

Prufrock wasn't fancied in the betting when made a 33-1 shot making her debut at Leicester of 6f. This Irish-bred chestnut daughter of Roderic O'Connor was purchased as a foal for 40,000E. Trained by David Simcock, Prufrock raced at auction class on debut which in theory is a lower level than this event. The form of that debut is probably nothing beyond the norm but if the price illustrated she needed the run then there could be more to come. From a statistical point of view, if priced 13/2 & less has respectable win and place claims. If weak in the betting, it may be for a watching brief. 

Sir Michael Stoute fields Believable for her second start, who was a beaten favourite on debut at Newmarket over 6f. This daughter of Acclamation is owned and bred by Cheveley Park Stud. Stoute's debutantes are rarely pressed with a view to progressing with racing and they can often show big improvement. I would suspect Believable goes well here and if strong in the betting would add confidence. 

Marco Botti has been perhaps a little quiet with his juveniles this season. *Alice's Dream is a daughter of Showcasing and 8,000G breeze-up purchase. She made her debut in June over the minimum distance and not overly fancied at 14-1. Bletchley won on the line that day beating a talented horse in second place. Alice's Dream dwelt and then ran on giving the impression a step up in trip was needed. A step up to 6f at Pontefract saw her made favourite but a disappointing in fourth. Better is needed.

Mark Johnston has been in sparkling for this year and his two-year-olds setting an example to most, envied, trainers. Apamurra made her debut at Goodwood over the minimum trip and a hot favourite. This daughter of Lonhro was thrashed by Kachess who has proven to be top flight. Once again, this bay filly was made favourite at Sandown, travelling easily but tiring in the closing stages. Johnston must have been sure this youngster would shine but clearly, to some extent, she has disappointed. No doubt this is the reason connections are stepping up in distance. It is something of a negative that she hasn't received any flashy big-race entries. A wide draw is not ideal. 

Simon Crisford has proven a star trainer when it comes to winning debutantes and Muthmira is interesting. This daughter of Arcano was purchased from the breeze-up sales for 70,000E. Once again, it is a slight negative that this chestnut filly hasn't received any big-race entries. However, if seriously backed, it would be a good sign. 

Oudwood looks to be second string representing Hugo Palmer and best watched unless seriously backed.

Robyn Brisland has taken over from Nick Littmoden and similarly knows a decent horse when he sees one. Queensbrydge ran well on debut at Kempton over 6f when a 33-1 shot. To finish third behind the talented Rajar was a promising run. This April foal was weak in the betting next start at Windsor. She proved disappointing that day and I think much of that was to do with a wide draw and pressing for the lead. A lower draw should he a big positive but after a poor effort there will always be question marks. That debut effort, if improving, could give this filly a fighting chance at big odds. 

Conclsuion: An open race. A few of these have something to prove in ways and that will include a couple at short odds. Bee Case was a little bit disappointing last time out. Believable needs to improve and if fancied in the betting most likely will. She has fair each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less PS. Profrock was a big price on debut and you have to question the reason for that. Was she in need of the race? From a statistical pointer, Simcock's charge has fair each-way claims if priced 7/1 & less SP. A good draw is a positive but it weak in the betting [outside the betting guide] is best watched. Queensbrydge may have claims at big odds but like a few here needs to answer a question or two. A watching race for me.  

*NR