Friday, 3 March 2017

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd March) MAIDEN STAKES (Class 5) (3yo) Winner £2,911 8 runners 5f Standard ATR

skyequine racing tips
A Maiden Stakes over 5f on Standard going.

Nine three-year-olds take part. Six have racecourse experience with three debutantes. It looks an open race.

Fast Track, Frank's Legacy & Violet Mist look to have a mountain to climb.

Wishing Time was relatively fancied on debut for Qatar Racing Ltd, trained by David O'Meara. This son of Frankel followed a string of sparkling performances from this exceptional sire's offspring so no surprise to see her in the limelight. The mare won on debut, winning four times in a twenty race career. With a couple of victories at Listed class and Group 3, she was no slouch for Roger Varian. Wishing Time didn't achieve a great deal on debut and will have either underperformed or needed the race. Whatever the circumstance, she needed an excuse. The only hope would be if seriously backed and a shortish price. She is well bred so it may be foolish to consider this is one of the few to lower the flag of Frankel. 

Ivan Furtado doesn't have many talented horses. It was probably the reason Arabella Rose started 50-1 on debut. They were well strung out that day in January over 7f. This bay filly dropped down a furlong at Wolverhampton when 8-1. That was at auction class. As we have seen this winter, there isn't often a great deal between these race types but it is very much dependent on individual horses. Make no mistake, a good horse would beat this one very easily. Owner Ron Hull is a loyal patron and deserving of winners. Arabella Rose is dropping down to the minimum trip. After being keen, many punters may fancy her to show good pace. However, there is a marked difference between the pace of five and six furlongs. She may even be outpaced. Not a horse I would bet.   

The betting suggests this race is out of three horses. In fact, at this time, they are all similarly priced. 

Kevin Ryan has had a few three-year-olds fancied in the betting of late but most are failing to win. Kodicat has run four times and making hard work of things. This daughter of Kodiac has been thereabouts but never close to winning. Campaigned over 5/6f has seen her placed once and fourth and fifths. With an official rating of 71, we're not dealing with Pegasus. However, some of these races are being won by horses rated in the 60s. I would take a look at the two debutantes.

David O'Mear fields Rock Of America. This son of Arch cost 75,000G when purchased at two. Looks to hold claims. 

David Barron has been in flying form this winter season and Poet's Reward races in the familiar silks of Laurence O'Kane. This bay gelding may well be a short price due to the stable finding a ready seam of winners. This 75,000G two-year-old purchase was a cheap foal at just 6,000G. That is a positive. 

Conclusion: An open looking race. It may turn out to be a lot better or worse than imagined. Those with form have limitation. Wishing Time may have a chance being a daughter of Frankel and well bred. However, O'Meara has two horses here and the other looks much more fancied. Unless seriously backed, best watched. The two debutantes may well be the key. If there is a horse with ability it is likely to be one of these. The problem with betting debutantes, especially over five furlongs, is that a slow start or inexperience could mean a tough task. Latent ability often shines through with a three-year-old debutante rather than raw two-year-olds but it can still prove a problem. In addition, the opposition of each other at relatively short odds suggest to me, unless you know one is a flying machine, that it may be best to keep your money for another day. An interesting race in its own right but a watching brief.