Sunday, 24 July 2016

2:20 Pontefract Racing Tips (24th July) FLY HIGH FAYE NICKELS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to firm going. This Plus 10 race has tempted a few trainers to send their better prospects. Seven two-year-olds compete in this fascinating contest. Thos legible for the Plus 10 could pick up win prize money of over £16,000. 

Savannah's Dream set the standard for David O'Meara. This bay daughter of Showcasing out of a multiple-winning mare ran well on debut at Ripon over the minimum trip when fancied in the betting. She ran a creditable third place. This April foal was set a challenge second start when heading to Royal Ascot and made 100/1 on testing ground in the Windsor Castle Listed Stakes. That was a great performance to finish runner-up to ready winner Ardad who disappointed next start when stepped up to Group 2 class. Savannah's Dream showed marked improvement from first to the second start and there may be a slight concern she appreciated the soft going that day which is contrasting today. A horse to respect but I wouldn't be betting odds-on against the potentially fair opposition.

Peach Pavlova wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Thirsk but ran well when second, pulling clear of the third. The form of that race has been franked by the fifth, sixth and seventh winning. This daughter of Elzaam was fancied to go well second start over 6f at Catterick on good to soft going but never looked happy and struggled some way from home. She must have had an issue that day because the performance was too bad to be true. She drops back down to the minimum trip which may not be against her with this stiff climb to the finish. It's never easy betting horses that have disappointed because you have questions even before assessing the competition. True, you can bet at decent odds but I would have to take a watching brief.

Richard Fahey comes here with a trio of runners and I suspect at least one of these two will show ability. 

Party Tiger was made favourite for his debut at Beverley over 6f on good to soft going. This son of Excelebration was seriously backed but left his supported cursing after a slow start, then racing keenly to be prominent before tiring to finish last. Nigel Tinkler won the race with a 50/1 shot and by all accounts, it was a poor field. Interesting to see how Andrew Tinkler's charge goes today after just over a month off course. The betting on debut suggests he has the ability but you have to forgive a debut which left most hot under the collar. The betting should tell the story.

The Musley Bank trainer also fields Kruger Park. This brown colt, a son of Requinto, was purchased in April at the breeze-up sales for £40,000. Interesting to see he is part owned by Andrew Tinkler but racing in different colours. This Irish-bred juvenile still holds an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes Group 2. It is one of only two horses in the stable, so it is far from a raft of entries. It will take a bold show to win this race on debut, especially over the minimum trip. On the plus side, Fahey is a master at priming juveniles to go when on their racecourse bow. I suspect this colt will be heading here with some confidence. Shame this race features just seven runners so only two places for each-way bettors. An interesting horse who is worthy of respect today and later in the season.  

Kevin Ryan's horses are in good form and Hemingway ran well on debut at York over 6f on good going. He may have finished fifth but beaten just two lengths. This chestnut gelding is a son of Dragon Pulse costing £40,000 at the yearling sales. He showed good pace before weakening in the final furlong. Has sound each-way claims.      

Scotch Myst is best watched. 

Conclusion: Savannah's Dream has to go off favourite after a surprising performance at Royal Ascot. In some respects, that may make one of two horses here value. I wouldn't bet the favourite at odds-on. Hemingway and Kruger Park are interesting. The former has vital experience and ran well on debut. Ryan send his better juveniles to make their debut at York and I wouldn't knock anyone from betting this horse each way. Kruger Park catches the eye with his significant entry. I think this colt is sent here with confidence but the question is whether he is ready to beat more experienced rivals? It is difficult to give experience away over 5f but Fahey does feature a strike rate with debutantes which is very similar to fancied horses on their second start. That may seem a general comment but it is actually a startling point compared to those of most trainers. I would be more interested in betting if this was three places for each-way betting. I will take a watching brief but if I had to bet it would be this horse.