Monday, 5 December 2016

11:50 Lingfield Professional Gambler Racing Tips (5th Dec) 32REDBINGO.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Professional Gambler, Racing Tips, Betting,
A Maiden Stakes over 1m 2f on Standard going. Originally fourteen two-year-olds declared but two non runners. There may be more. 

John Gosden has three going here: Make Memories, Naseem & Peaceful Passage. 

Make Memories has the visor fitted for the first time after finishing last at Newcastle when racing over a mile. Priced at 40-1 suggests this $400,000 foal isn't taking after Street Cry, his sire. 

Peaceful Passage is an American-bred daughter of War Front out of an unraced mare. This March foal is a home bred, still in the ownership of Mrs Emory A Hamilton. She was relatively fancied on debut when towards the rear over 7f at Redcar racing on good to soft going.She gave the impressive the trip was much too sharp. She was relatively fancied next start when stepping up three furlongs. She was taking on a couple of fair colts and finished runner-up. That Stakes race featured respectable prize money. Should be primed to go here although it would seem a slight negative if their stablemate starts favourite.

Gosden has Naseem is making his debut for Hamdan Al Maktoum. This brown gelding is a son of Sea The Stars cost 450,000G as a foal. As stated, the betting will be insightful. Gosden's two-year-olds are often tough nuts to crack when priced 5-2 & less SP. Considering the stable have a couple of horses in opposition it would reinforce the view that this expensive buy will be fit and ready if going off favourite. 

Mark Johnston comes here triple handed. 

Nothing Compares is priced 66-1 which suggests this daughter of Harbour Watch has limitation.

The Blues Master is a grey colt, an Irish-bred, sired by Mastercraftsman. He has raced five times with one third place and official rating of just 70. There should be better to contest this race. 

Addicted To You is the shortest in the market from Kingsley Park Stables. This home bred son of Medicean was recently sent to the sales but withdrawn. This chestnut colt was relatively fancied on debut but finished last over one mile, then sixth at odds of 66-1, while he went close last time out finishing fourth in a blanket finish losing by just half a length. This is a marked step up in distance which may be the key. However, an official rating of 71 implies that any horse of ability will take advantage. 

James Tate's Serenade The Star cost 70,000G at the yearling sales racing in the colours of Saeed Manana but shown very little in two races to date. The blinkers are applied in an attempt to find something although nursery races look better suited. 

Good to see Archie Watson making his name in the training ranks. Plead ran well last start at Newcastle over a mile when placed third just two lengths behind the winner. This daughter of Dutch Art was bred by Cheveley Park Stud and recent purchase at the sales for 37,000G. Another horse taking a step up in distance. Rated just 70 means this extended trip must benefit.

Saeed bin Suroor is represented by *King's Shadow. This American bred son of Distorted Humor cost $200,000 but started unfancied on debut beaten a distance. Cheekpieces are applied. If weak in the market, I'd take a watching brief. I substantially backed it would give hope, especially is priced 13/2 & less SP.

Jamie Osborne does well on the all-weather courses and The Statesman is another colt stepping up a couple of furlongs. This Irish bred son of Zoffany cost £60,000 at the yearling sales and a recent purchase for 90,000G. That price tag tells a story in itself. Originally trained by Aidan O'Brien, he was placed on his first two starts and started 15-8f when placed third at Newcastle over one mile eleven days ago. Considering this colt was struggling for pace, before running on, this step up in distance looks more to his liking. I can see this juvenile going well. 

A couple of debutantes round off the field.

Dervish is interesting. This home bred gelding is a is an Irish son of Cacique. Luca Cumani does have debutante winners but they are usually priced 10-1 & less SP. They do have  a tendency to be placed more than win. If weak in the betting best watched.  

William Muir is always worthy of note with two-year-olds on their racecourse debut as they can do well at a price. To be fair, most have to be talents. Franny Nisbet is a daughter of Mount Nelson. She was withdrawn from the yearling sales. Probably struggle today.   

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. With a debutante or two looking likely to figure at the head of the betting and form horses stepping up in distance there will be a few question marks. I'm not keen on backing debutantes but Gosden's Naseem cost a fortune at the sales and with two stablemates in the mix it would be a sign of confidence if this gelding is strong in the betting, especially if priced 5/2 & less SP. The general stats for this runner are decent. The Statesman was quite an expensive purchase and this step up in distance should help. May well be an each-way alternative. Peaceful Passage ran well last start and should be there about but if Naseem is stronger in the betting you can't help feel this would be a negative to this fillies' chance of winning. Dervish may have each-way claims if 10/1 & less SP. I would let the betting settle before jumping in if you are betting as it may winkle out one or two. I would take a watching brief. 
       
*NR