Monday, 16 January 2017

How to win at gambling by knowing your niche

Gambling. It is a subject that probably puzzles as much as it fascinates. 

Let's face it, most people enjoy a bet. I guess most wagers could be termed ''fun bets''. This would be described as a throwaway bet or betting with your emotions. For the buzz. Backing your favourite football team in a local derby, place a pony each-way on a horse you have a part share, perhaps you feel it in your bones. 

Each to their own. It's your money, so do as you please. It's good up to a point, hey. 

But what if you really want to make money gambling? Going from a gambler into an investor - akin to someone who makes a living as a stockbroker. 

It's a cliche but life is a gamble. Your insurance company is betting that you don't drop dead today. They have good reason to be confident. They are experts in their field. They make a living from selling you a piece of security which you are unlikely to need. When you need it you will find the expert isn't so welcoming anymore. 

The problem with betting from an emotional point of view is that you are likely to struggle with objectivity. Emotions fall short on logic. Have you ever got in a mood and then sat down afterward to realise what you said lacked any reason? It was fuelled by passion, anger, envy...   

Even the most disciplined of gamblers cannot escape emotions in some form or another and objectivity, even if based on scientific methodology, is a difficult subject to get to grips. It's a slippery eel. 

I didn't even want to chat about the subject of objectivity/emotions but all aspects of gambling are, in truth, intertwined with a myriad of variants. It can be a very difficult topic to even touch the surface. 

Let's talk about a niche. A niche is about the specific rather than the domain. 

If I said I want you to read a book because at the given date I will set you a test you'd probably be confident. You'd have an understanding of the subject. 

What if I threw in a couple more tomes: Mills & Boon, War & Peace & The Dummies Guide to Sheep Shearing? 

The chances are you would fail miserably because there's only so many hours in the day to revise, learn... Pass that test!

Jack of all trades - master of none. It's true. To understand more you need to focus on less because even considering the smallest aspect of your sporting niche will become a truly time-consuming endeavour. I know from studying two-year-old horse racing that there is never enough time to do everything. I often refer to it as being stuck on a conveyor belt. Why? Because racing dictates your workload. If you fall behind how will you ever catch up? If you fall behind you may as well give up. If you are lacking you cannot bet with confidence. You need confidence.

To be fair there are many different ways to bet, tip, win, lose, draw.... If you have a super-quick answer to those questions you are lucky. Because the majority of winners prevail for one very good reason - they work harder. If they don't work harder now, they did to gain their knowledge/skills/expertise. This foundation of expertise may start by pure luck or chance. However, it will end with skill and so many aspects that you never even realised were part of the professional gambler's life. 


''You don't, long term, get lucky and win'' 

You win because you know more. You have a greater understanding. Basically, you have learned how to become an expert. 

Even then, it is far from easy to make money betting. 

If you want to make money betting [investing] then it is important to enjoy your work, take your time to understand the subject matter which is likely to be formulated by trial and error. Find angles which you feel give some reward. Try to find something which is unlikely to be replicated by others. If it's ridiculously simple it is very unlikely to work. If you can find this information then others will do the same and probably better. Don't forget that your niche may need only be a slight variation to be successful. That may be enough to tip the balance in your favour. 

It's like the origin of species and natural selection.  No species have the same set or skills, habitats etc. They are the top [of their niche] because they have evolved to be best. You need to have a knowledge which means you have the skills to survive in the betting world. It isn't about being the best just that little better than most 

Good luck.