Saturday 30 April 2016

3:10 Salisbury Racing Tips (1st May) BETFRED "HOME OF GOALS GALORE" FILLIES´ CONDITIONS STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 3) (2yo)

A Fillies' Conditions Stakes over 5f on good going. This is a proper stakes race rather than these pseudo-maiden-stakes or whatever you wish to call them. 

Decent prize money for this Class 3 with just five fillies taking part: two raced and winners with three debutantes from stables who do not feature very good statistics with two-year-olds making their racecourse bows. Nonetheless, an interesting event.

Daffodil Mulligan, Fair Selene, and Limelight Lady look to have a challenge against the favourites. 

It isn't bad news these juveniles start their campaign in this class. It is a race type that details these horses may well have a future. 

Fair Selene cost just 5,000gns as a foal. 

Daffodil Mulligan cost 12,000gns at the yearling sales when purchased by the trainer.

These two are best watched. 

That moniker is probably worth tagging to Harry Dunlop's Limelight Lady but I will reserve judgment for now. The stable have found shock debut winners at huge odds but the strike rate is pretty poor. Unlikely. 

Unless something very unusual happens this looks a match bet between the two winning fillies Stormy Clouds and Fastnet Spin.

David Evans has sent out a lot of two-year-olds this season [no surprise there] and he has a couple of decent horses including unlucky Ascot runner-up Deningy. Fastnet Storm isn't the fastest thing on four legs but she managed to win second start at Windsor. This daughter of Fastnet Rock was well backed although it was a very restricted auction stakes. This bay filly enjoyed the testing going after looking a touch outpaced. The conditions that day favoured a horse running to the line rather than a speedy sort who tired. I don't think that was a strong race at all. If the ground remains good or faster I would have doubts this April foal will be competitive against the speedy Stormy Clouds. I would be amazed if she isn't outpaced. If betting, bet in-running because I honestly think if someone takes 5/2 on this horse they must have gone mad. Her only chance is if the favourite goes too fast and stops, suffers and injury or has a very bad day at the office.

Stormy Clouds is a bonny filly who has run twice on the all-weather. I wouldn't bet on her if the ground is soft because this daughter of Sir Prancealot [pictured] isn't the biggest and could get bogged down. At 8/13 on [may well be 1/3f before the off] there isn't any meat on the bone. I am always fearful of any horse disappointing and at short odds you can look like a joke if even suggesting a short-priced loser. Richard Hannon's filly was fancied to go well on debut but had no chance with the giant Chaupalla, who for a filly looks a beast. She won well against Decedent Times, sticking her tongue at Dascombe's speedster just before the finishing line for a comfortable victory.

Unless something very strange happens she will win. However, I don't bet big odds on.