Wednesday 31 August 2016

4:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st Aug) HARLEYFORD AGGREGATES MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to firm going. 

Eleven two-year-olds take part from a mix of trainers. All experienced horse bar one debutante. Roger Charlton fields a good-looking colt in Sfumato. This brown colt is a son of Bated Breath and home-bred from K Abdullah. This February foal has been fancied on each of his three starts to date and expected to go well on debut and second start at Newbury. He disappointed both occasions by pulling much too hard and unable to finish his races with any spirit. I was interested in him next start at Salisbury because after those two hiccups he was a huge price early on the exchanges before the money came. Connections and punters had faith that the hood would calm him down enough to show improved form and that was certainly the case with a very professional run, just losing out to Owen Burrow's highly regarded Akhlaaq. To be fair, Sfumato was unlucky to bump into such a horse and also to be denied by a very late charge which didn't look likely for most. He isn't much of a price at 11/10 but must take some beating here. There is always a concern with a previously difficult horse that he could be a handful and for that reason if betting it may be worthwhile seeing how this youngster goes to post. If he looks too keen it would be a problem and best left alone. 

Magicinthemaking is worthy of note. Jeremy Noseda doesn't have the largest of two-year-old string but this American-bred filly is quite interesting. This daughter of Wildcat Heir is owned by Mrs Susan Roy and purchased at the breeze-up sales for $165,000. Most breeze-up purchased are fit and ready to go well on debut but the betting suggested that day at Newbury that this brown filly wasn't at her best. It was a pretty competitive race but I would expect to see a marked improvement on that first start. If priced 13/2 & less SP has decent win and place claims. If particularly weak in the betting is best watched. 

Conclusion: The betting suggests this is out of four horses unless there is a surprise. Sfumato is a decent sort and seemingly calmed by the application of the hood. If running to that level has to go close. Magicinthemaking doesn't look anything out of the ordinary judged on her debut and one of four fillies taking on the colts here. She is well regarded in the stable and I think better will be seen today. She should strip fitter and be ready to show ability. I would be tempted to have a win bet on Sfumato and Magicinthemaking with hope that Noseda's charge can edge out the favourite, but have that colt as a good safety bet.