Friday 25 November 2016

1:45 Newcastle 2YO Racing Tips (25th Nov) £10 FREE AT 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 7f 14y on standard going. 

Fourteen two-year-olds take part: eleven colts and three fillies. Nine have race experience. I will try to keep this succinct as it has been a long day although I'm always full of enthusiasm for these contests.

Envisaging is worth inspection after being fancied in the betting on both starts. James Fanshawe must have been a touch disappointed by those efforts. This Irish-bred son of Zoffany cost 110,000E when purchased at the yearling sales, after being bought as a relatively cheap foal at 17,500E. Ben CM Wong has a number of talented horses in his ownership and this bay colt was fancied on debut at Sandown over 7f. To be fair, this April foal was pretty weak in the betting, which may have suggested he needed the run. There could have been a grain of truth in that because he dwelt, keeping on to take fourth near the finish but never dangerous. 

It is difficult to assess his betting at Goodwood next time out simply because it was a four-horse race. However, on basic statistics, this juvenile was fancied to go well although once again quite weak in the betting. Stepping up to one mile, he was much too keen to a point where it soon became obvious he wouldn't be winning. Weakening in the final furlong, the two favourites were left to their own devices. 

Envisaging has not been seen for about three months and the betting suggests punters have not lost heart. This drop in the distance looks a good move and this straight all-weather course should be positive. It is no bad thing to show pace on this course although racing too keenly would be a concern. Fanshawe will have been working behind the scenes to calm this character's temperament. This factor is crucially important. In many respects, a temperamental horse isn't good news because you are betting for a professional display and enough ability to win. If betting, watch this juvenile going to post, if you can. If headstrong, don't bet. 

I wouldn't bet on this horse unless each-way prices are available, which seems unlikely. 

Note: Ran well in 3rd. Almost touching EW odds at 7/2.