Thursday 3 November 2016


A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on standard going. 

Quite a restricted race type. Nine two-year-olds take part  - all raced bar one debutante. This doesn't look a very competitive contest. The tissue price suggests Brendan Powell's Odelouca will be favourite. This bay filly by Elusive City looks a bargain buy at just 9,000E at the yearling sales. This American bred was reluctant to enter the stall at Kempton over 6f but showed good pace and battling instincts last time out when losing by a couple of lengths over 7f. Interesting to see if this drop in distance tames that speed. Powell isn't the first trainer you associate with juvenile winners but the betting indicates something is expected. I'm always careful betting on smaller stables and would take a watching brief. 

Peter Chapple-Hyam's Red Sniper was made 3/1f on debut at Brighton. This daughter of Casamento was bought by the vendor for just 8,000G at the yearling sales. She wasn't helped on debut by dwelling at the start before running on in the closing stages without making much impact. This March foal was kept at 7f when heading to Salisbury but weak in the betting and showing little. Cheek pieces are applied on this first attempt at 6f. This looks a lower grade so more may be expected although she doesn't look anything beyond moderate.

James Given fields the twice raced Paquita Bailarina. This daughter of Paco Boy is owned by Ron Spore. A 50/1 shot on debut saw a satisfactory start to her career. She was more fancied next start at Pontefract when running on in the closing stages but the first two went clear of the field. 

No Not Again has raced four times this season showing a glimmer of ability. This is his class. With an official rating of just 73 this Irish-bred has achieved the best of those to have raced three times. Holly Doyle takes off a valuable 5lb. Richard Hannon's charge is likely to hit the frame.  

Lord Cooper has an official rating of just 55. Poor even for this grade. Jose Santos has found a 200/1 winner this season. However, this son of Sir Percy will not be anywhere near those odds but likely to find this tough. 

Sattar makes his debut for Martin Smith. I can't say this Newmarket trainer has registered with me since taking out a licence with no juveniles winners. This bay son of Zebedee was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 4,500G. He was recently sent to the sales ring but withdrawn. That's a negative.

Dean Ivory's Not Now Mum has raced twice and shown little. May be better suited by nursery races. 

Similarly, Banta Bay hasn't achieved a great deal. He was purchased at the breeze-up sales for £8.000.

Four Candles may be worthy of note. Philip McBride does well with his juveniles and this Irish-bred son of Lilbourne Lad cost 13,000G. He was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales. This gelding was relatively fancied in the betting when making his debut over 6f at Wolverhampton. He was shuffled back when short of room which isn't ideal on your racecourse bow, especially on a turning course. He needs to improve on that first start but has the potential to do so. May be worth a small each-way bet at decent odds. [Note: so much for Sporting life tissue betting had this at 12/1...].   

Conclusion: I often refer to these limited contests as egg and spoon races. To be fair all horses which make it to the races deserve respect. Today, one of these two-year-olds will be a winner. None has achieved a great deal so far and that in itself can make it difficult to assess. Four Candles hails from a trainer who gets the best out of his juveniles and at decent odds is worth a small each-way bet. 

Thanks for your support.