Friday 13 January 2017

2:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (13th Jan) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 6y on Standard going.

Not really a race of any betting interest but a quick look at Snow Squaw who is trained by David Elsworth, adorning the silks of John Smith. This Irish-bred daughter of Excelebration is out of a decent mare in the same ownership. She won three times, placed at Group class, and achieved the highest official rating of 105. The mare - Snoqualmie Girl - raced over a mix of distances right up to two miles when making her final outing at Newmarket.   

Snow Squaw must have been a disappointment, especially of late with a couple of poor efforts. Clearly, this filly isn't going to achieve too much on the racecourse but worth a lot of money as a broodmare. However, a win under her belt is pretty much a prerequisite to making those offspring expensive purchases at the sales. 

Snow Squaw was fancied on debut and I was quite keen on her chances next start at Ascot. I was slightly miffed she lost second place in the dying strides. Third start saw a narrow loss when just held by a short head defeat. Connections must have been seriously annoyed by that loss because from a breeding point of view it is worth a hell of a lot more money than winner's prize money. 

Things have gone south with the two latest performances which much bring today's chance into question. Basically, it was a no-show at Kempton over 7f, when she weakened quickly and a dismal performance when stepping up to one mile at the same course. 

Look at today's trip - 5f 6y. I'm intrigued to consider what connections, bookmakers, and punters will think about this drop in distance. Snow Squaw is priced at 11/4 with bookmakers so it would seem they are at pains not to give much away in price although, probably, quite eager to take a bet.   

I would fear this three-year-old will be outpaced because this drop in distance is likely to come as a rude awakening even if she has decent pace. 

I won't be betting.