Thursday 5 January 2017

2:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (5th Jan) 32RED.COM MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (3yo+)

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f 216y on Standard going. 

Nine three-year-old runners with race experience bar one debutante. 

I have my eye on a speculative bet. Perhaps a mix of sugar and spice and all things nice...

A big price can be great news but it can also be viewed as a dose of hemlock if passed by the wrong person.  

So who's the lucky girl? It is actually a horse I mentioned earlier in the season. To be honest, all didn't go to plan that day.  

Dashing Poet is the bay in question. This daughter of Poets Voice cost 45.000G when purchased at the yearling sales. Jeremy Gask is a decent trainer who deserves more juveniles in his string. This twice-raced filly showed limited ability leading to this contest.  It is no surprise to see this March foal priced at 33/1. Even greater odds should be available on the exchanges. 

The Dashing Poets own this filly who is making her third start after a lengthy absence of almost 160 days. 

She made her debut a Sandown, which suggested to me connections held her in some regard even if not expecting too much on that formative race. In truth, she made a satisfactory debut giving the impression the experience was needed. 

I must admit, I expected more when racing over course and distance second start. Dashing Poet led until the final furlong but was literally left standing as her opponents battled to the line. She finished tired many lengths adrift. 

It is difficult to say what happened that day. Connections may have expected a bold show. Certainly, she was ridden with some confidence so it might just be a case she disappointed. Being on the sidelines for such a period of time could highlight an injury or more likely Gask coming to the conclusion she needed time to strengthen up. 

We still haven't witnessed a performance that identifies a winner in waiting. So what is the reason for giving this horse a chance? 

It pays to have a long memory in this racing game and I have that with my working methodology. Earlier in the season, I identified Dashing Poet held a few significant entries which caught my attention. It might have been the equivalent of the pie in the sky but her trainer isn't the type to make such entries for no reason. I would be pretty confident that at some time this filly has shown ability on the gallops.

She has a good draw in stall one. And after taking the lead second time out it may not be a surprise to see Marquand try to lead. In that sense, if betting on the exchanges, I would be tempted to try and lay the bet at shorter odds to at least cover your stake. 

Conclusion: A tricky horse to make any strong conclusions. My interest is based on those early entries which hinted this filly had shown ability. Perhaps that was true and things didn't quite pan out and better will be seen today. That is the gamble. A speculative bet - long term - is never bad news to me as you need only one to come in to make you a handsome profit. I wouldn't go mad. I'd hope this filly is a huge price because that is the angle of interest. I can't say I am confident because this is more of a hunch than a statement. There is another concern with this being her third run. Connections may have an eye on handicaps. 

However, I will place a very small bet on the exchanges and hope she has enough spirit to lead and lay my stake early. [Not confident but if I can get 50/1+ on the exchanges I'll be happy enough].

Then I will cross my fingers and hope for the best. Unless you really like a blind punt, I'd keep your money in your pocket. I hate not to have a few quid on a big price winner because I've seen far too many of those slip, by the way, trying to be that little bit too clever for my own good. Interesting race to watch if nothing else.

3:10 Southwell - 

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 6f on Standard going. By median price, this is a very restricted race type. Ascot Day has been fancied in the betting on both starts. David Simcock is a superb trainer and I would be surprised if this bay colt didn't go well.