Wednesday 15 February 2017

7:20 Kempton Racing Tips (15th February) MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3-4yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 4f on standard going. 

Of the older horses, Henry Croft, has to shoulder a huge age penalty giving at least 21lb to the three-year-olds. Hard work. 

As we have seen in recent days, this makes winning pretty difficult, especially if we have a talented horse in the line-up.

To be fair, this looks an open heat with, at this time, six horses priced in single figures. 

Alexander M has raced twice. That experience is valuable although over such a trip it gives the debutantes plenty of time to learn on the job, although no one wants to give someone a massive lead even if you're a spotty kid in a sack race. 

Andrew Balding's Cartavio has been fancied in the betting on his last two starts and although finishing fifth on both occasions hasn't been beaten by many lengths. Connections must feel this extra couple of furlongs could show improvement. 

A few debutantes take part from significant stables. 

I would let the betting settle before jumping in with both feet. The only exception to that rule is if you anticipate a gamble.

With horses making their racecourse bow - it depends on what you know. 

It often pays to be careful when betting on debutantes, especially so if you don't have a good reason.

All these things have to be considered to gain a picture of what, if or maybe. 

John Gosden has two horses - both fancied in the betting at the time of writing. Peaceful Passage has raced three times and relatively fancied on all starts. She hasn't been seen for seventy-three days and steps up by a couple of furlongs. 

Kyneton is making his debut for the stable. He has blinkers applied for the first start, which brings a question mark or two. This son of Fastnet Rock didn't go through the sale's ring. Not sure if he is a home-bred. 

The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less has respectable place claims. I use betting guides to give a basic understanding. There are exceptions to every rule and it doesn't mean a horse outside a betting guide cannot win. However, on balance, this statistical approach is worthy of respect.

Hugo Palmer is a very good trainer. Shine Through races in the familiar silks of Dr. Ali Ridha who many readers will associate with Gifted Master. This daughter of Poet's Voice cost 55,000G when purchased at the yearling sales by Palmer [trainer]. If priced 13/2 & less SP would hold fair each-way claims. 

Mehmet Kirt's home-bred Tomorrow Mystery didn't achieve much on her first two starts but went well last time out at odds of 20/1. She was given a bold run that day and it will be interesting to see if connections try that approach over this greater test of stamina.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. This post is as much about my thinking process as finding a winner. Unless you know something about the debutantes I would let the betting settle. It may weed out one or two if limited. Henry Croft may as well be pulling a cart because some of these are carrying a featherweight by comparison. He is a consistent horse and may well run well but if one of these three-year-olds has ability he may settle for a place at best. I have no real interest in this race and will be taking a watching brief.