Monday 20 March 2017

3:30 Kempton Racing Tips (20th March) MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (Class 5) (3yo) Winner £2,911 9 runners 7f Standard RUK

A Fillies' Maiden Stakes over 7f on Standard going.  

Nine three-year-olds take part, four with race experience. A number of high-ranking trainers in what looks a competitive affair. 

Double Spin hasn't been seen for two hundred and sixty-five days. This American-bred daughter of Hard Spun is trained by John Gosden in the ownership of Newsells Park Stud. She made her debut over course and distance back in June last year when showing promise in fourth place, beaten just over two lengths. This bay filly was backed to 3-1 but dwelt before making rapid progress to lead, then headed when impeded in the closing stage, most likely tiring due to pulling too hard. If fit and primed, should go well. 

David Simcock fields From A Distance who was fancied to go well on debut at Chelmsford over 6f but disappointed. The betting is key here. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a much-improved performance. If weak in the market best watched. 

Garnetta & Irish Sky are best watched unless seriously backed.   

Clive Cox can hit the ground running with his debutantes. Global Alexander is a daughter of Dark Angel for owner Noel O'Callaghan. An expensive yearling purchase at 160,000E. Another horse who holds claims if the betting speaks in her favour. If priced 13/2 & less SP could hit the frame. If even shorter would be significant.

I have been following Preobrajenska, who was trained by Michael Bell but now handled by William Jarvis. This daughter of Paco Boy was sent to the sales in February but withdrawn. Interesting why she has changed stables. Not sure if it is a positive or negative but may just sway to the later. I have little doubt this bay filly went well on the gallops before debut and rated as a fair juvenile. Pretty sure I had a bet on her second start when a short head loser. Fancied in the betting on all starts to date confirmed a horse of some ability. She disappointed at Chelmsford, probably going too fast and in need of the run. A similarly disappointing effort was displayed at Wolverhampton when dropping back to 6f. Those last two efforts bring concerns and may indicate a horse in regression. It's possible a change of scene and a new training regime may ignite the fire. I would take a watching brief just to re-assess. 

Jeremy Noseda doesn't have too many debutantes over the winter months so Reckless Woman catches the eye. This daughter of Helmet is owned by Budget Stable and cost 50,000G at the yearling sales. The betting is key. If priced 8/1 & less is worthy of respect. If weak in the betting best watched.

Jamie Osborne has been doing well these last few weeks. Secret Salvage ran well on debut at odds of 33-1. She was fancied to go well second start but put in her place over 1m. This daughter of Roderic O'Connor led and it might be the case the trip was just a little too far. I imagine owners The Bo Derek 10 Partnership gave her a hard-pressed six with the hope of more next time. She may need her hair braided to bring a bit of vigour. Definitely, something to prove after that effort but not without hope if appreciating this lesser trip. 

Owners Clipper Logistic have debutante Western Safari making her first start with Richard Hannon. The dam was a Group 3 winner, which gives hope and fancied in the betting at the time of writing. I always find Hannon a difficult trainer to assess on debut. 

Conclusion: Quite a large field. Not the easiest of contests to assess with a number of high-profile trainers. Definitely, let the betting settle before jumping in unless you are pre-empting a gamble. Double Spin has bold claims but whether you will find value at short odds is a matter of opinion. If From A Distance, Global Alexander & Reckless Woman are in their best betting guides I would be careful with the favourite. If they are fancied in the betting all feature respectable each-way claims. I'd watch Preobrajenska after two disappointments and a stable change. Secret Salvage may show more over this shorter trip. Difficult to assess Western Safari but if very well backed could figure. At the time of writing, I will have to take a watching brief. 

That opinion may change nearer to the race start.