Saturday 11 March 2017

3:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (11th March) Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+)

Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 1m 1/2f on Standard going. 

Eight runners. Five with race experience. One four-year-old taking on those aged three. 

Heartstone is the four-year-old in question, trained by David Evans. Fifteen races and seven times runner-up. This bay filly has achieved over £10,000 in prize money and versatile horse racing from 7f - 1m 4f. Certainly, holds claims being a consistent type who has an official rating of 71. Has to defy the weight penalty but that is pretty much the norm for her previous efforts. Worthy of respect.

Hugo Palmer is a powerhouse of a trainer. First Moon was relatively fancied on debut and a narrow loser, defeated by half a length. This daughter of Oasis Dream was keen on debut over one mile. From a statistical point of view has bold claims. If drifting to an each-way price is a decent bet. 

Ice Dancing has fair each way chances if priced 13/2 & less.

Mick Channon has suffered a loss of numbers in his string and consequently more limited horses. This stable's debutantes need to be 8/1 and less SP to register as a bet. If Best Of My Love is weak in the market, best watched. 

William Muir is a smart trainer who could do with a slightly better class of horse. Although he does get one or two expensive types. He can hit the highest levels. Miss M wasn't overly fancied on her first start over 7f but ran a fair introduction in sixth place. This step up in distance could help. Horses often make giant strides from first to the second start. However, I would focus on the betting. If strongly fancied, it would give confidence but if weak I'd take a watching brief.

Jonathan Portman has applied the blinkers for the first time on Mayfair after four starts. This daughter of Zamindar has an official rating of 66, which isn't outstanding by maiden standards although some of these races don't take much winning. 

Rae Guest is worth noting with his debutantes because they often go well. California Cliffs is an April foal but pretty cheap yearling purchase at just 10,000G. The betting will tell the story. If priced 10/1 & less may hold fair each-way claims. If weak in the betting I would imagine she is limited or needs the run.

Kevin Ryan fields the once raced Appreciating. This bay filly was bred by The Queen and very cheap two-year-old purchase at 3,000G. She was priced 12-1 on debut when racing over 6f and although fifth wasn't disgraced when beaten less than three lengths. This is a step up in distance. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest race to assess. I would let the market settle before jumping in unless you are anticipating a gamble. None of these are expensive purchases. Heartstone is a consistent horse who will be thereabouts. First Moon is the pick on statistics. California Cliffs may have claims if priced 10/1 & less SP. Not enthused about this race at the time of writing so unless something happens to capture my attention in the betting it is a watching brief.