Thursday 9 March 2017

4:30 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March) MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3-5yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m on Standard going. 

Eight runners. Five with race experience. Quite a restricted race type although not bad prize money.

Interesting to see David Brown training Clock Chimes for John Fretwell. This partnership has proved fruitful over the years. This bay gelding is a son of Foxwedge which cost £36,000 at two. A good draw in stall one, this horse has claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. If weak in the betting may be limited or in need of run. 

He's A Lad has raced three times. Andrew Balding's Irish-bred bay colt is a son of Lilbourne Lad. He wasn't fancied on debut last July but much more fancied in the betting when returning in January over 1m. He was backed to 5-2 and lost by a head. Dropping back by a furlong at this course saw him outpaced. Connections will be hoping for more on this return to a mile.

Alan Swinbank is a canny trainer. Generally, he doesn't have debut winners but they can go well if strong in the market. Last Chance Paddy is an American-bred son of Paddy O'Prado racing in the silks of Lee Bond Racing. He cost 30,000G when purchased at two. Has claims if priced 7/1 & less SP but if unfancied best watched.

Michael Appleby is something of an enigma. He can spring a surprise but in general, his debutantes need the run or limited. Stragar is a homebred gelding and son of Delegator. He was sent through the sales ring for just 800G, bought in by the vendor. Best watched. 

The two favourites make most appeal. 

Ed Vaughan fields Whosyourhousemate. This chestnut gelding is sired by Bahamian Bounty out of an unraced Galileo mare. He looks a good yearling purchase at just 32,000G. Bookmakers didn't give this horse much hope on debut starting at 50-1. To be fair, they looked right after a slow start and well in rear, before running on with some verve to finish third. The form of that race looks fair in the context of this race type. There is always a fear that a horse of such big odds and comprehensively outpaced on debut could be flattered by his proximity to the leaders. I would give this horse the benefit of the doubt. From a statistical pointer has bold claims although I wouldn't jump in at short odds. 

The Bo Derek 10 Partnership captured the attention of a few punters when Secret Slave gave a double-figure performance when losing by one length at odds of 33-1. This daughter of Roderic O'Connor cost just 16,000E at the yearling sales. There wasn't a great deal between the first five horse when racing on debut over 1m and half a furlong. The form of that race looks respectable with the second horse, Solajan, winning well next start. Should improve and go well.    

Sunoverbel has raced four times and achieved an official rating of just 60. Will need to find something to test this field. 

Melo Magic is a daughter of Dick Turpin named after her owner J De Melo. She was 100-1 on debut at Windsor back in August last year where she dwelt and was always well behind. She finished last.

Conclusion: Quite a restricted race type which often favours form horses. Debutantes Clock Chines and Last Chance Paddy have claims if priced 7/1 & less SP. He's A Lad will appreciate this step back up to one mile. Balding does well with his three-year-olds. Secret Slave and Whosyourhousemate were both huge prices on debut but both went well. They have sounds claims judged on basic statistics. Vaughan's second star may well be a decent horse but you have to be careful to make sure such horses weren't flattered racing so far off the pace then running on. After over fifty days off course, I would imagine connections have taken their time to get this gelding ready for the day. However, I wouldn't jump in at short odds. There is a chance he could be outpaced in the early stages and for exchange bettors may be bigger odds in running. I wouldn't bet on this horse if short priced. Secret Slave may be a viable each-way bet if drifting a touch in the market. I would definitely let the betting settle before getting stuck in as this may help get rid of the debutantes at least.