Thursday 22 June 2017

Thursday's Racing Tips

Thursday 22nd June

1:50 Chelmsford - 

Central City is proving frustrating, beaten on all three starts to date for Hugo Palmer. To be fair, this son of Kodiac has run respectably on each start including a fine effort in the Lily Agnes Stakes. His debut effort at Doncaster reads well. A third at Chester is worthy of praise. His most recent contest saw him beaten by a talented juvenile in Great Prospector. Richard Fahey's charge will be racing at Group class. Third best Kit Marlow is a fair sort. He and Central City led that day. Both may have gone a stride too fast. 

This is a drop in class, being an auction race and a return to the minimum trip is a positive. The application of blinkers looks unnecessary, but I guess Palmer is trying every angle too win. 

There is a concern that a horse may regress after a few hard races and that is a possibility with Central City and needs to be factored into the price. 

Ed Walker's Simpson doesn't hold any Group race entries at present but likely to do so in the near future. This son of Dragon Pulse was well-backed on debut and ran a sterling race. 

The winners is a fair horse for the grade and Simpson was clear of the third. This drop back in distance shouldn't be a problem although the pace between five and six furlongs can be significant. 

From a statistical point of view, this horse has sound claims. 

In conclusion, I expect both horses to run well. There is a slight concern that Central City may regress at some point and invariably be a short price when doing so. Simpson will run his race and more guaranteed. At the odds, I can't see how you can make much use of these horses. You could go bet on both but that is often a hard way of making money. You only need one horse to pop up with ability. They look the type to put in an each-way double.       

6:20 Lingfield -  

George Baker has been very quiet this season with his two-year-olds and proven limited so far. Chess Move was noted by the trainer earlier this season which gives some hope. 

Interesting to note this bay colt is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. 

This son of Kodiac cost 120,000G at the yearling sales. Baker doesn't have many juveniles in training and this is a significant purchase for the stable. The stable, in general, has a poor strike rate with debutantes. In fact, he is often very poor. Baker has won with debutantes but these are often exceptionally well backed. Ferguson's horses are often supported in the market is fancied to go well. You could bet early and anticipate a gamble which could put you in a good position to lay off to a no-lose bet if using the exchanges.I would let the market tell the story. Even if well backed I would tend to be reserved with this stable because I have seen a few at short prices on debut look very inexperienced. If backed to crazy short odds (1/1) it would be a huge pointer but at those odds, I wouldn't get involved. The only angle I can see is betting and hope he is backed to shorter odds. However, you are kind of betting a horse will be gambled rather than whether you actually think it can win.

Move Over has been noted by Richard Hannon. He ran a fair race on debut. Bookmakers are giving little away at 11/10.