Wednesday 9 August 2017

2:40 Pontefract Racing Tips (9th Aug)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 6f on good to soft going. 

Eleven two-year-olds take part but most likely a fight between half a dozen juveniles. A quick run down of those with leading hopes.

David O'Meara field *Battle Commence a debutante racing in the familiar silks of Clipper Logistics Ltd. This son of Declaration Of War cost 35,000 Euros at the yearling sales. Would have more confident claims if seriously backed. 

Richard Fahey is always worthy of note when training for Cheveley Park Stud. Chief Justice is a son of Acclamation and a substantial breeze up purchase at 150,000G. Fahey can ready a debutante and this youngster deserves respect. 

Michael Dods has a decent string of two-year-olds and David Armstrong is a significant owner of exceptional horses. Tebay, a son of Elzaam, was relatively fancied on debut but disappointed in fifth. This bay colt may have needed the race. He most certainly benefitted from a step up to 7f when similarly positioned to debut at Redcar. Arbalet powered home after looking a touch outpaced but had too much class and denied the field in easy fashion come to the line. Has ability but may need to find extra. 

Sir Michael Stoute has a fantastic juvenile in the shape of Expert Eye. He has a decent record at this course. *Capesthorne is a daughter of Oasis Dream is a homebred for Ballymacoll Stud. The mare was a three-times winner: group 2 success and group 1 placed. The important factor to this bay's chance is the betting. Very few of the trainer's debutantes win when priced over 13/2 SP. If fancied in the betting she holds each-way claims. 

Mark Johnston had a great Goodwood. He says it himself, that he sends the best of his debutantes to the Glorious racecourse. Dowitcher is a homebred from Godolphin in the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. This daughter of Lonhro should be respected. I find the stable debutantes difficult to call. As I often quote: they are usually easy winners or poor losers. Time will tell. 

Karl Burke is represented by Beatbox Rhythm in the silks of John Dance. This chestnut son of Beat Hollow was fancied to go well on debut. This 62,000 Euro yearling purchase ran well but beaten into second by a surprise package in 33/1 Make Good who trailed home on debut. He franked the form with a creditable second under a winner's penalty next start. The fourth placed, Hippeia, wasn't disgraced on her second start. Burke's charge led and hung in there for a place. 

Conclusion: Unless you are banking on a horse being backed, I would let the market settle because it is very important to the chance Capsthorne. If seriously weak in the betting may be in need of the run. To be fair a few of these could figure and likely to be fancied in the betting. Experience counts for a lot at this course as they often set the pace and if ring rusty it can make life hard playing catch up. Chief Justice hails from a stable who can win on debut. Dowitcher is worth noting in the betting. It would bring more hope if seriously backed. I find Johnston difficult to assess on debut. They win with ease or toil in the wake of others. Beatbox Rhythm ran well on debut and likely to progress for that initial start. If drifting to an each-way price would make more appeal.   

NR: Capesthine, Battle Commence, Saisons D'Or, Troop,