Wednesday 27 September 2017

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (27th September)

7f  Novice Stakes  (Plus 10) (Div I) (Class 4) (2yo) on Standard to Slow going. 

Thirteen two-year-olds take part: Eight debutantes taking on lightly-race opponents. 

Two horses catch the eye. Both were meant to run in the Convivial maiden at York but William Haggas' Nicklaus was a non-runner that day.  

This chestnut colt is a son of Exceed And Excel and expensive yearling purchase at 180,000. Racing in the familiar silks of M J Jooste, this March foal was pretty fancied on debut at Newmarket over six furlongs. Little went right that day. He finished last and that race is best forgotten because this juvenile is much better than seen so far. The fact that he was meant to race at York in the Convivial is a significant pointer. In addition, he has been earmarked for another Group race. This step up in distance is positive. A wide draw (9) isn't ideal but that initial experience should see him sit in a handy position. You are clearly basing this horse's chance on reputation rather than form. However, there is plenty of pointers to suggest he will go well on his second start. 

Corrosive made his debut in the Convivial. This American-bred of Uncle Mo, in the ownership of V I Araci, hails from a top stable in Hugo Palmer, who has done particularly well with his juveniles this season often on their second start. This bay colt was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 150,000G. He started 33/1 on debut. The Convivial feature the biggest price money for any juvenile maiden at £43,575. It is worth more than a number of Group races. The majority of juveniles racing in this contest are held in high regard by their respective trainers. Corrosive finished in fifth place just over six lengths behind the winner. The form has and will be franked. I don't consider this colt one of teh best in the juvenile ranks but up to winning a fair race. From both a form and statistical point of view, this horse holds fair claims. If drifting to each-way odds would make even more appeal. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. I am confident these two horses will run well. A win bet on both may yield a return. However, I would be looking to bet Corrosive each-way if prices allow.