Tuesday 17 April 2018

3:00 Newmarket Racing Tips (17th April)

An EBF Novice Stakes race over 5f on good to soft going. 

Eight two-year-old colts take part: two with race experience. 

Both I Am A Dreamer and Ynys Mon shaped with promise on their racecourse bow. 

The former trained by Mark Johnston was a beaten favourite and third of three when failing at even money on testing ground at Musselburgh. This son of Dream Ahead cost 62,000G at the yearling sales. Worth noting he was the only horses entered for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. Musselburgh saw heavy going that day, which is far from ideal. Time may tell it was a decent race even with such a small field. The betting on debut and Brocklesby entry encourage me to think I Am A Dreamer has ability. 

The first thing that struck me about Ynys Mon, he is a good-looking colt. This son of Olympic Glory drifted to huge prices on the exchanges before being backed down to 13/2 SP.  That was a decent Class 2 race, with very good price money of £12,000+ to the winner. Izzer won under a penalty after taking the Brocklesby Stakes. The second that day, John Betjeman, wasn't disgraced on his second start. Ynys Mon is an early runner for Charlie Hills. He doesn't have too many out this time of year and it is often a sign they have ability. The ground that day at Bath was horrendous being over ten seconds slow. This bay colt cost 85,000G. He was slow away from the stalls and playing catch up thereafter. True, on form he didn't show a great deal but there were reasons to forgive that performance and on better ground and experience on side, he isn't without hope. 

Aidan O'Brien fields the well bred debutante Van Beethoven. The stable have the ability to win at leisure with their talents. However, this colt doesn't look to be value at short odds although respected. 

Tom Dascombe sent out his first two runners the other day but neither achieved a great deal, unfancied in the betting and struggling with wide draws. Jackstar is a grey son of Dark Angel and costly yearling purchase at £120,000. The mare won and contested Group class. If priced 13/2 & less SP should be respected. 

Brian Meehan isn't usually one to start the season so early with his two-year-olds. Treasure Quest is a son of Sepoy and cost £30,000 at the yearling sales. The stable can win at speculative prices. Would have more appeal if backed. 

Pesci hails from Richard Fahey's stable. He is a superb trainer when it comes to readying a debutante although each horse is best judged on its merits. This son of Elzaam cost £35,000 at the yearling sales. 

The first two-year-old of the campaign for Kevin Ryan in Aloysius Lilius. This Irish-bred son of Gregorian cost 46,000 euros at the yearling sales.The stable can win on debut and worthy of respect. 

Robert Cowell is a capable trainer who can pop up with a decent juvenile. Vikivaki was far from disgraced on debut at Newcastle. Owner, Mrs Fitri Hay wasn't holding back when this son of Kodiac was purchased for 180,000 euros. Ballistic is out of a twice-winning mare who raced over sprint distances and rated about 90. The betting suggests others are more fancied but could be backed. 

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. A few of these are fancied by connections ,while others cost good money. I Am A Dreamer is likely to have ability. Ynys Mon has something to prove but a good-looking colt who may shine brighter here. Difficult to know what to think about the favourite. I wouldn't be betting at short odds but respect the stable.It means you have bigger odds to play with for an each way bet if that is your angle. The two form horses have valuable experience but this looks a tough race to call.