Monday 9 July 2018

6:10 Windsor Racing Tips (9th July)

An EBF Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to firm going. 

A competitive heat with a few horses looking to bounce back after touching the clouds or disappointment. 

Brian Meehan's Boa Nova won well on debut but totally outclassed when competing at Royal Ascot in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). Has to carry a win penalty which makes life harder. Sets a decent standard. 

Interesting to see Ed Walker has a few rare talents this juvenile season. Glorious Lover wasn't overly fancied on debut when ridden by Gerald Mosse. A slow start saw this British-bred son of Tamayuz finish well in third place behind Confiding, who is held in high regard by Martyn Meade. Glorious Lover cost 100,000G at the yearling sales. The form of that race has been franked a number of times. There is likely to be improvement to come. A wide draw is not ideal, especially if slow starting today. However, from a form and a statistical point of view this February foal has strong claims. 

Another horse which could prove much better than we have seen is Kevin Ryan's Sense Of Belonging. This son of Dutch Art looks a bargain buy at 40,000G. He started his racing career at York, which is a racecourse Ryan often sends his better juveniles. After being keen, and held up in rear, this chestnut colt ran on with verve to finish third, losing by a couple of lengths. In some respects, the form of that race has proven fair if not anything special. He was all the rage at Hamilton when starting 4/9f. The going was soft and it was a trappy affair which may not have helped. A disappointing third place left punters scratching their head in wonder at what they had seen. A recent entry in the National Stakes (Group 1) gives hope that there is better to come. I am sure connections will be more hopeful here on this faster going and a prime draw may encourage a front-running performance (after being keen they may be more interested in hold-up tactics). Intriguing.

Hughie Morrison doesn't have many two-year-olds out early season and it is a positive sign. In fact, just about all go on to win in their formative season. Requited has enough ability to win a race. I had a bet on this son of Requited when making his second stat at Kempton. I got about 150/1 and half fancied my chances. A wide draw didn't help and being keen meant his jockey was at pains to settle. It is a shame he hadn't settled, because he ran on all to late to finish sixth but beaten just four lengths. Winning is all about circumstance. Not sure if this colt is quite up to the standard of a couple of these but I wouldn't knock this runner at all especially if settling, which could be the case on this third start. Could hold each-way places. 

Swiper has been given a significant entry for Richard Hannon although not one of the stable's better juveniles. He was leading on debut when backed to favouritsm but faded tamely in the closing stages. Much more is needed here and unless in need of the run on that first start over course and distance looks to have something to prove. 

I'm Billy Murphy and Superseded showed a glimmer of ability on debut but need to improve. 

Deadly Force, Indian Horseman & Show The World are best watched. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. This looks out of four horses. Boa Nova, Sense Of Belonging are coming back from defeats. The former outclassed the latter needing to come back from disappointment. Both are potentially fair horses. Requited may struggle to against one or two of these but could hit the frame. Glorious Lover ran well on debut and Ed Walker's charge could be going places but a wide draw and a short price may not be value. A watching race.