Saturday 30 July 2022

Saturday's 2YO Races (30th July)

Four maiden races today: 

1:05 Goodwood - 

Class 2 stakes race. A competitive race. Classic ran well on debut when fancied. Ran on well and wasn't hard pressed. Looks a decent horse but at the odds the only value is to get it beaten. Loyal Touch was pretty short priced on debut and ran well enough without showing outstanding form. Could well improve and has decent ew stats. The Foxes ran in a hot race on debut and then stepped up in distance on his second start at Ascot. Difficult horse to assess but must be well thought of so a chance. There's been money for Peter Chapple-Hyam's, Scorch. Would have fair stats if 13/2 and less sp but would need to be something special to win this on debut. A tricky looking race where the value is probably finding an ew alternative to the favourite. 

1:20 Newmarket - 

A couple here who have entries in what could be a fair race. Luckin Brew is a good looking horse who was fancied but drifted a lot in the betting on debut. Could well improve as wasn't knocked about that day and ran on well. Art Of Magic has very good stats if 13/2 and less sp. Needs to improve but may do and the stats suggest some hope. Sir Michael Stoute has a debutante. He can go well but generally his debutantes don't have the best win stats unless very short odds and a horse I would take on. Canadiansmokeshow is well regarded and looked to need the run on debut when not that far away at the line. Finished well and after a break and stepping up in trip could hold realistic ew claims. 

2:06 Thirsk - 

A fascinating race. Harry Brown looks a fair juvenile but you have to question if he has been slightly flattered on those first two start as last time was a touch disappointing. After three starts you have to consider he might be vulnerable. Borough was very well backed on debut and showed up well until tiring in the closing furlong. Dropping in distance today, we will see how he fairs. Very interesting to see how Bryan Smart's Jamie Bond goes. Clearly well thought of by connections with a Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) entry and Gimcrack Group 2. An expensive breeze-up buy £130,000. Smart's debutantes from a stat point of view can be a little hit and miss but he does have debut winners which gives hope. If backed to 11/4 and less sp would be a live chance. Definitely one of the more interesting horses here. Overnight Oats ran a fair race last time out when beating Harry Brown. He was outpaced for the most part and ran on in the closing stages. The two leaders that day went plenty fast enough and he was catching tiring horses. Muir is a decent trainer and this horse is heading here probably following the soft ground as he has something of a pronounce running action and wouldn't want fast ground. My be outpaced and run on. I would think you'd get much bigger odds if betting in running. Eternal Class is well bred, cost a lot of money, and received a couple of significant entries from connections. Burke's debutantes can be hard to get right but they can win especially if single-figure odds. This is the best month for the 2yo debut winners from this stable. A horse I suspect has ability. 

5:40 Lingfield - 

A lowly banded race. Bonnsie is a short price but decent sort and should go well but no real value. Connie C didn't do much on debut at Class 3 and has received another class 2 entry. It would look unlikely but if disappointing on debut Stan Moore's charge may have a glimmer of hope. You've be chancing your arm but a 66/1 shot you don't bet on those prices confident. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest races to assess. A few horses of interest. The betting may help detail strength and weakness at the off. Interested in Jamie Bond but always fearful of betting on debutantes. If Smart's colt is backed to 11/4 and less you would be confident of a big run.

May well be watching today.