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Friday, 26 August 2016

Friday's Racing Tips

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A few races today and number of talented if not very talented two-year-olds to highlight.  

2:00 Newmarket - Maiden Fillies Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. The betting suggests this is a two-horse race and it should be a cracking contest. Sir Michael Stoute's Spatial ran well on debut when second, racing in the silks of Cheveley Park Stud. This daughter of New Approach is out of a talented mare [Spacious] who was trained by James Fanshawe. A dual winner at Group 2 and Group 1 placed on a few occasions. A tough horse to beat. Sobetsu will need to be primed to lower the colours of Cheveley Park Stud but this daughter of Dubawi, trained by Charlie Appleby, is held in high regard at home. Appleby can ready a debutante and they go well at Newmarket. Both look priced to chance at 1/1 - 5/2 respectively. I would hope that backers get their teeth stuck into Spatial and Sobetsu takes a marked drift in the betting. If available at each-way prices I would definitely have a bet on the boys in blue. 

3:10 Newmarket - An EBF Stallions Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. Very excited about this two-year-old race. A few of these debutantes are held in high regard so we should see some sparks fly and a race where there will be many future winners. Here's the shortlist in no particular order:  Law And Oder, Mandarin & Rummani.

Remember the names of these horses because they will be winning. They are all rated highly by their respective trainers and this should be one hell of a race.

Law And Order was all the rage on debut at Yarmouth and done little wrong finishing third. I'm sure connections went to the seaside course counting their chickens and unlucky to bump into a wolf dressed up as Little Red Riding Hood, with a machete stuck down her draws.

I detailed the winner that day, Salsabeel, as being held in high regard. It was such a hot contest that she drifted markedly in the betting - won well at the line. The money definitely came for Law And Order and William Haggas' Novoman, who had valuable race experience. Novoman won well at Brighton next start, not that the form needed franking. 

Law And Order looks a fantastic buy at 40,000G. This son of Lawman is favourite in the betting and has, from my information [which I cannot detail], strong win and place claims. I would go so far to say this youngster has outstanding place claims. 

The interesting thing is that Rummani may well be a very hot challenger. I am sure Charlie Appleby will be well informed of where this son of Dubawi stands with Law And Order via Salsabeel.This grey colt is very good. I know this colt is very high in the pecking order for Godolphin and it wouldn't be a surprise to me to find he is fit and ready. The greatest concern with any debutante is inexperience. In addition, connections are, to a point, unlikely to go crazy to win if it comes a battle. However, I would favour Rummani because I am sure connections will be pleasantly surprised to see James Tate's colt in opposition. 

To add to the mix Marco Botti has a top-class juvenile in Mandarin. This bay colt is a son of Lope De Vega and a bargain buy at 55,000G. Botti sent out a good sort in Qatar Man, who was narrowly foiled when runner-up at Chelmsford City. This youngster is held in high regard and will be winning this season. I wonder, in ways, if out of the two debutantes detailed here if Botti's horse will show more inexperience? Interesting.


Conclusion: This isn't any ordinary maiden. I can quite imagine these three juveniles racing at pattern class sooner than later and here they are looking for their first win. Law And Order is a fair measure and any chink in the armour of Rummani and Mandarin will be costly for their supporters. It will be interesting to see how the betting goes for this race because it could be quite volatile.

Law And Order has very good win and place claims. I would be surprised if he isn't in the first three. That may not sound like I'm telling you anything but it would be a plus if drifting in the market and available at an each-way price. I would consider this a bet to nothing. 

I feel Rummani is sent here with high expectations. He has a level of ability. Over this longer trip horses can get away with inexperience although connections will be unlikely to go mad to win if it means he has to have a hard race. I can't help think they will use Salsabeel as a measure of how Rummani compares to Law And Order. If starting favourite I would consider it the answer to the question. However, if drifting to an each-way price I would still be betting. 

In some ways, I would rather Mandarin not be in this field. He may turn out to be a thorn in the side. Out of the three, I would have this as the lesser of the trio simply because I feel Botti's debutantes can be slightly more in need of the run. A negative to that thought is the fact that if a trainer really likes a horse they are likely to make sure they are primed to gain that elusive first win. 

I would favour Rummani but, to be fair, I would wait for the betting to settle because each of these three could make excellent each-way wagers and we simply will not have that information until nearer the start. 

A race to savour.

Thursday, 25 August 2016

2:10 Leicester Racing Tips (25th Aug) GLEBE MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. Nine two-year-olds take part. Six have race experience and three debutantes from a mix of trainers.

Quite an interesting betting heat. Check out horse racing odds on special markets including top jockeys, special distance and etc.  

Sidewinder is trained by Tom Dascombe and raced four times showing a fair level of ability for this restricted race type. This bay gelding went close to closing his maiden status when running on with purpose on debut at Pontefract over the minimum trip. This son of Majestic Missile has raced over six and seven furlongs these last three efforts running respectably although struggling last time out when attempting a nursery for the first time when a disappointing favourite. Whether that was due to heavy going is a matter of opinion although The Sidewinder Partnership may start to threat if this is another disappointing display. There is always a concern that after a few hard races a horse may sour.

Peter Chapple-Hyam is a trainer of note but sadly seems to have fewer and fewer two-year-olds in his string. Charlie Rascal is a son of My Boy Charlie ran in a competitive maiden on debut at Doncaster. For an auction race that was a pretty hot contest with the winner, Western Duke, capable of better things. Charlie Rascal showed good pace that day before tiring into seventh place. He was relatively weak in the betting at 20/1 which could have been a consequence of needing the race or simply unfancied. Generally, Chapple-Hyam's debutantes would be stronger in the betting so there was some reason: lack of fitness, limited ability or perhaps priced to chance. In the context of this race, it wasn't a bad performance to be beaten less than six lengths. The betting is important. If priced 13/2 & less SP would hold fair win and place claims. If outside this betting guide I would take a watching brief. 

Prince Of Clappers run in the same race and finished last. A cheap yearling purchase at just 6,500G. Best watched.

George Margarson does well with John Guest's two-year-olds although Daring Guest wasn't fancied on debut at Sandown when made 50/1. This son of Fast Company finished mid-field beaten twelve lengths. He cost 47,000E as a foal then sold for 25,000G at the yearling sales. Much more is needed. If substantially backed, it would bring hope. Best watched unless there is significant money.

Brian Meehan has not had a vintage season with his two-year-olds to date and Young Officer was made 50/1 on debut a Newbury. That was an EBF Maiden but finishing last of thirteen doesn't inspire. This drop in grade will help but a horse I would rather learn a little more about.  

William Muir fields Master Billie. This chestnut son of Mastercraftsman cost 26,000G when purchased at the yearling sales by the trainer. I often associate Muir with sending some of his better juveniles to Leicester although he has a poor strike rate with his debutantes and only the superstars prevail. If this youngster is beyond the norm, he will be substantially backed. Unless a marked move in the markets I would imagine better will be seen in his second start.

James Tate is a very good trainer and I respect his debutantes, who, surprisingly, can go well at big odds. Ocean Air won't be starting at fancy prices today and around 5/1 in the betting at present. Racing in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana, an owner who may have huge wealth but not afraid to buy cheap purchases, which often go well. This son of Rio De La Plata cost 26,000G at the yearling sales. A horse to respect.

Another trainer who is under-represented is Will Jarvis. He has a small string of two-year-olds but can go well with his debutantes. Aqshion Stations is a son of Aqlaam out of a three-time winning mare that won at Listed class and achieved the highest official rating of 100. He looks a good buy at just 11,000G. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would expect a bold show. Interesting jockey booking with Silvestre De Sousa. 

The only filly in the field, which could be a slight negative. Claire's Secret is a chestnut daughter of Sakhee's Secret who ran at Newmarket on debut in a fillies'maiden when one of the outsiders in the betting at 25/1. She wasn't disgraced in seventh although never troubling the leaders giving the impression the race was needed and this extra furlong will be appreciated. Philip McBride is a talented trainer who often has his juveniles primed to go well the second start. One for the shortlist.

Conclusion: A restricted race type which often favours horses with experience. The favourite has claims at best although needs to come back after a disappointment. The betting will be key for Charlie Rascal & Aqshion Stations. Both have claims if priced 13/2 & less. Ocean Air is worthy of respect. Claire's Secret looks to hold each-way claims. 

Monday, 22 August 2016

Monday's Racing Tips

Not a huge amount of time to go into detail so I will try to keep this succinct.

2:45 Carlisle - Stakes races are not really my betting medium. This will be  a pointer rather than a ''fill your boots'' bombshell. Surprisingly poor prize money for a race with a few fair juveniles. Mere Brow wasn't fancied on debut when a big drifter in the market but showed ample promise to finish fourth over an insufficient distance. This bay daughter of Clodovil is owned by David Armstrong. Interesting to note she was purchased for only £3,000 by Peter Fahey, which gives the impression she was originally heading for Richard Fahey. Mere Brow has been entered for a couple of stakes race which is a confident sign from Ann Duffield. This February foal was withdrawn a couple of weeks back when becoming unsettled in the stalls. This step up in distance will help although it is worth noting she was meant to race at 7f last time out. With the favourite Parnassian shouldering a penalty she should go well and have each-way claims. 

5:35 Thirsk - Karl Burke is a class trainer and Connacht Girl is an interesting bay filly who is no doubt held in some regard for Spigot Lodge to make her debut at Sandown. This daughter of Dark Angel was purchased for 58,000E at the breeze-up sales. She was slow away on debut but made progress to contend the lead before tiring in the closing stages to finish third some eight lengths clear of the fourth. Maureen Gittins' filly isn't one of the top juveniles in the stable but holds respectable each-way claims. At present, she is priced 7/2, and if drifting a touch in the betting is a fair wager. 

7:20 Kempton - A tough race with Blushing Rose, Raven's Lady, Manama, Snow Squaw & Millie's Kiss heading to Sunbury with thoughts of winning. Philip McBride is a top trainer and I particularly like his two-year-olds on their second start. This bay filly, a daughter of Aussie Rules, ran well on debut at Yarmouth, in a pretty hot race, and this step up in distance should be to her advantage. Comes here with fair win and place claims. There will be no hiding place in this maiden. 

Sunday, 21 August 2016

2:00 Brighton Winning Horse Tips (21st Aug) DELIVEROO.CO.UK MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 59y on good going.

Just seven two-year-olds take part. Five horses with race experience and two debutantes. There is a fair difference between top and bottom weight.  A very restricted race type which favours form horses. 

By all accounts a poor race.

Tullinahoo is one of few juveniles trained by Denis Coakley. This bay colt is a son of Elzaam and £20,000 breeze-up buy. He has shown flashes of ability but disappointed to some extent last time out at Bath. A touch too keen when priced 9/4, this March foal finished fourth some six lengths behind the winner. Tom Queally takes the ride on this even money shot which tells the story that the opposition have hardly been catching pigeons at home.

David Denis is a talented trainer. Blastofmagic is one of three two-year-olds to race this season with the handler for Tyre Hill Farm Ltd. This grey daughter of Hellvelyn cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales when purchased by David Denis Racing Ltd. He was withdrawn from the sales as a foal. Half fancied in the betting on debut, a slow start, and detached in last, meant this youngster had a tall order and finished seventh of eight. It is difficult to assess this juvenile because even at this level improvement is needed. The betting suggests this juvenile has a fighting chance but at relatively short odds I couldn't bet. My trainer data is limited for Denis as he is a new trainer. If seriously backed, it may tell its own story. 

Trainers are looking for anything to bring improvement, and Surfina has the cheek pieces applied. This bay daughter of Acclamation showed a whisper of ability when sixth at Windsor when floundering behind Grey Gallion. With an official rating of just 54 that figure details that this race would need to fall apart for this juvenile to win. 

I sometimes say the worse a horse looks on debut the better they turn out to be. I'm not sure if that maxim will work for Lady Gwhinnyvere. This Irish-bred daughter of Sir Prancealot [who has done well as a first-season sire]  was priced 100/1 on debut and tailed off last by some thirteen lengths. The mare won twice and was far from disgraced in the St Leger Yearling Stakes at two. Spearing is a canny trainer. Although this second starter looked as slow as a slug on debut, if seriously backed it would give some hope. If priced 13/2 & less SP would have each-way claims. The betting suggests, she will be the outsider of the field and if that is true take a watching brief. 

Chiconomic has show very little ability in two starts but drops down in distance. Rae Guest is a superb trainer but I would imagine he is looking to get this daughter of Clodovil a handicap mark. 

Generally, I would consider juveniles with form to hold an advantage at this grade. It may well be the case because the two debutantes were both cheap purchases which suggests they are no world beaters. However, they haven't yet proved they are limited, which the others, unless they progress with racing, have done.

The most interesting horse in the field is Lord Clenaghcastle. This Irish-bred son of Big Bad Bob cost 6.500E at the breeze-up sales when purchased by his present owner Michael Baldry. The major hope for this bay colt is that he is fancied in the betting. If priced 13/2 & less SP there is a very good chance he will hit the frame. Conversely, if outside this betting guide I would take a watching brief. Interesting to see Hector Crouch is booked to take off a valuable 5lb claim. It's all about the betting with this horse. 

Michael Madgwick isn't the most fashionable trainer when it comes to training two-year-olds although he has had one or two show ability on debut. In that respect, it isn't beyond the realms he could have a fighting chance here. General Gerrard is a son of Captain Gerrard, gelded, racing in the familiar silks of Mrs L N Harmes, who did well with sprinter Multitask [changed owners]. This juvenile was purchased by the vendor for just 5,000G. I couldn't have any real confidence in this debutante as a betting proposition but in a race which looks like an egg and spoon race crazier things have happened.

Conclusion: I think I set myself a challenge writing about this race. It is a very poor race and we are dealing with limited ability which is difficult to measure. We are talking more about how bad each horse is to find a winner rather than how good. Not the best pointer. The betting will be the key for most of these. If one has much more ability than seen it will be backed short. Tullinahoo has shown the most ability and may well win but even money seems short. I would bet on an even money shot with ability rather than one without. However, each to their own. Blastofmagic may hold claims. Lord Clenaghcastle is the most interesting. If backed to 13/2 & less SP I would take it as a significant sign. If weak, I would watch. A poor race and a watching brief for me.   

Thursday, 18 August 2016

3:30 Sandown Racing Tips (19th Aug) TCA ABU DHABI/BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f  16y on good to firm going.

A giant field of sixteen two-year-olds. A number of talented juveniles make this one hell of a contest.  I will detail a few horses of interest and try to keep this succinct. (Mission impossible).

Calibration is held in high regard by Martyn Meade and ran well on debut at Ascot over 6f. This extra furlong, low draw, and valuable experience will see this bay colt go well. In any, average, maiden I would be all over this like a rash but we have a few opponents who will be battling hard.    

Interesting to see Deningy take a maiden rather than compete at Stakes or pattern class. This chestnut gelding is trained by Charlie Appleby and I'm pretty sure connection will be hoping this son of Sepoy can win and then take his chance at a higher level. He was a touch diappointing last start when defeated by Mutawakked, who is held in high regard by Brian Meehan. Deningy stepped up from five to six furlongs and today he attempts seven furlongs. This may be a revelation although I am slightly concerned he might be a tough keen, which wouldn't bode well. Previously, this March foal had proven to be temperamental and even though better behaved last start I am left with the impression he isn't the easiest of horses. Interesting to note he held an entry for the Convivial at York but takes this instead. 

City Of Joy is another juvenile to register on my list of talents. Sir Michale Stoute can win on debut although very few do so when bigger than 13/2 SP. It is a difficult to beat experienced horses who are far from your average fare. If strong in the betting it would give greater confidence but I would have to take a watching brief. 

William Haggas is represented by *Good Omen who was beaten favourite on debut at Ascot. That was an auction race rather than a fully-blown maiden and this juvenile has no lofty entries which suggests this bay colt may still have something to prove. 

Meteor Light has been going well on the gallops and worthy of respect at big odds.

Conclusion: A few big guns here. Cannons. Calibration will go well. He looks a straightforward colt and showed up nicely on debut. This extra furlong is a positive and I wouldn't knock anyone having an each-way bet. Deningy is a funny horse. Clearly talented he is a temperamental cad who has his own ideas. Appleby had him entered for the Convivial at York but decided to let their debutante Capezzano take his chance. I guess in ways that could be taken as a negative because you would think the experience of two races would be an advantage in a huge field. Deningy is held in high regard but I think connection realise he is a live wire and probably hoping this would turn out to be an easy maiden. A wide draw may bring problems if he has to be rushed to find position and stepping up in distance may make him prone to pulling. This gelding could well win well but with a number of niggles I wouldn't feel confident we won't have an issue of some kind and that would make this very hard work. I couldn't bet on Deningy even though I fear him. City Of Joy will need to be very good to win on debut and if weak in the betting is best watched. I wouldn't bet even if fancied in the market.   

*NR

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

2:20 Chepstow Racing Tips (17th Aug) EQUESTRIAN SURFACES MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 16y on good going. 

Tschierschen has been favourite on both starts to date and done little wrong with a head defeat on debut at Windsor and then put in her place at Thirsk when bumping into a Bryan Smart juvenile who will have lofty ambitions. This bay daughter of Acclamation out of a talented mare [Roo] races in the familiar silks of the China Horse Club who have very deep pockets. This juvenile cost 280,000G at the yearling sales and trained by William Haggas. This doesn't look the strongest of contests and five and six furlongs come alike. This filly has her limitations and I very much doubt she will be contesting pattern races. She has strong claims here but as seen with both defeats prone to a fair juvenile and that factor would make me careful of taking short odds. 

Nikki Evans doesn't have many two-year-olds but has found debut winners in the past. Polkadot Princess is an £8,500 breeze-up purchase and interestingly received a stakes race entry. This may be a sign of confidence although it would take a smart performance to win against these talents at the first time of asking. At odds of 66-1 I wouldn't knock a speculative bet but I would be hoping for a place rather than a win. Although if this daughter of Sir Prancealot has ability this type of bet are all or nothing. Meaning, they have as much chance of winning as placing to be fair. 

Sheila's Palace is held by Tschierschen on their Windsor performance.

Coronation Cottage showed good pace on debut over 6f at Chepstow but disappointed when dropped in distance at Sandown. More will be needed.

David Simcock has a number of talented juveniles and Island In The Sky has run twice at Newmarket over against hot opposition. Interesting to see how this drop to the minimum distance goes but decent challenger against the favourite.

Charlie Hills two-year-olds are in good form and Coral Sea is held in some regard by connections. Actually owned and bred by former trainer Peter Winkworth [he knows a good horse] this grey daughter of Excelebration ran well on debut at Newbury over 6f but too free although beaten by a decent juvenile in Poet's Princess. She ran well at stakes class when dropping to the minimum trip at Bath and it was no great loss behind two very talented juveniles who had penalties. 

Conclusion: This looks out of the three favourites. I couldn't bet Tschierschen at even money as I would be fearful of Island In The Sky and Coral Sea. The latter is proven over the minimum trip and if an each-way price with three places could be a bet to nothing and fingers crossed gets her head in front.

Monday, 15 August 2016

2:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (15th Aug) JOOLS HOLLAND HERE ON SATURDAY MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes (Plus 10) over 6f on standard going. Eleven two-year-olds take part, eight with race experience and three debutants.

Quite an open-looking contest. 

Bee Case is likely to start favourite. Hug Palmer's filly is a daughter of Showcasing out of a Galileo mare. She wasn't strongly fancied on debut at Kempton over 6f but far from disgraced when a running-on fourth just two lengths behind the winner. This bay filly was priced 2-1 to win next start at Windsor over the same distance when runner-up to Bahamadam, trained by Even Johnson-Houghton. This filly, herself, has been entered for a few fancy races and for Bee Case to be defeated may not have been a huge disappointment. Johnson-Houghton detailed that the winner was thought to need the race and the fourth that day, Hathfa, didn't quite live up to reputation over the weekend which does give the impression the Windsor race may have been no more than average. Interesting to see how Bee Case goes here.

Prufrock wasn't fancied in the betting when made a 33-1 shot making her debut at Leicester of 6f. This Irish-bred chestnut daughter of Roderic O'Connor was purchased as a foal for 40,000E. Trained by David Simcock, Prufrock raced at auction class on debut which in theory is a lower level than this event. The form of that debut is probably nothing beyond the norm but if the price illustrated she needed the run then there could be more to come. From a statistical point of view, if priced 13/2 & less has respectable win and place claims. If weak in the betting, it may be for a watching brief. 

Sir Michael Stoute fields Believable for her second start, who was a beaten favourite on debut at Newmarket over 6f. This daughter of Acclamation is owned and bred by Cheveley Park Stud. Stoute's debutantes are rarely pressed with a view to progressing with racing and they can often show big improvement. I would suspect Believable goes well here and if strong in the betting would add confidence. 

Marco Botti has been perhaps a little quiet with his juveniles this season. *Alice's Dream is a daughter of Showcasing and 8,000G breeze-up purchase. She made her debut in June over the minimum distance and not overly fancied at 14-1. Bletchley won on the line that day beating a talented horse in second place. Alice's Dream dwelt and then ran on giving the impression a step up in trip was needed. A step up to 6f at Pontefract saw her made favourite but a disappointing in fourth. Better is needed.

Mark Johnston has been in sparkling for this year and his two-year-olds setting an example to most, envied, trainers. Apamurra made her debut at Goodwood over the minimum trip and a hot favourite. This daughter of Lonhro was thrashed by Kachess who has proven to be top flight. Once again, this bay filly was made favourite at Sandown, travelling easily but tiring in the closing stages. Johnston must have been sure this youngster would shine but clearly, to some extent, she has disappointed. No doubt this is the reason connections are stepping up in distance. It is something of a negative that she hasn't received any flashy big-race entries. A wide draw is not ideal. 

Simon Crisford has proven a star trainer when it comes to winning debutantes and Muthmira is interesting. This daughter of Arcano was purchased from the breeze-up sales for 70,000E. Once again, it is a slight negative that this chestnut filly hasn't received any big-race entries. However, if seriously backed, it would be a good sign. 

Oudwood looks to be second string representing Hugo Palmer and best watched unless seriously backed.

Robyn Brisland has taken over from Nick Littmoden and similarly knows a decent horse when he sees one. Queensbrydge ran well on debut at Kempton over 6f when a 33-1 shot. To finish third behind the talented Rajar was a promising run. This April foal was weak in the betting next start at Windsor. She proved disappointing that day and I think much of that was to do with a wide draw and pressing for the lead. A lower draw should he a big positive but after a poor effort there will always be question marks. That debut effort, if improving, could give this filly a fighting chance at big odds. 

Conclsuion: An open race. A few of these have something to prove in ways and that will include a couple at short odds. Bee Case was a little bit disappointing last time out. Believable needs to improve and if fancied in the betting most likely will. She has fair each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less PS. Profrock was a big price on debut and you have to question the reason for that. Was she in need of the race? From a statistical pointer, Simcock's charge has fair each-way claims if priced 7/1 & less SP. A good draw is a positive but it weak in the betting [outside the betting guide] is best watched. Queensbrydge may have claims at big odds but like a few here needs to answer a question or two. A watching race for me.  

*NR

Saturday, 13 August 2016

2:35 Doncaster Racing Tips (13th Aug) BETFRED TV EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Luca Cumani, Aljezeera, Al Shaqab Racing
Not a big post. It doesn't need to be. One word. Frankel. Another two-year-old sired by Frankel comes galloping into the headlines.This time, a bay filly trained by Luca Cumani, racing in the respected silks of Al Shaqab Racing. Bred by Newsells Park Stud, this debutante was purchased at Tattersalls October Yearling Sales (Book 1) 2015. Gordon-Watson Bloodstock Ltd purchase this yearling for 450,000G. 

Racegoers will be looking forward to seeing Aljezeera who is out of a five-times winning Dynaformer mare. Dynaforce won on her debut at France. She went on to win a Grade 1 in the United States where she resides as a successful broodmare. 

It is clear to me that no Frankel offspring [at least this year] will be heading to the course unless it is bestowed with Frankel-like ability. Or enough ability to promote the Frankel brand. I'm sure there are many lesser-Frankel offspring who will never set foot on course because, basically, they will not be allowed to tarnish the sparkle of this money-making sire. 

Luca Cumani doesn't have the highest strike rate with his two-year-old debutantes but they can go well at short odds and I have few concerns that this March foal will be primed to win here today. Basically, if you backed all Frankel's two-year-old debutantes and continue to do so you will be in profit. 

Looks a good bet @ 6/5f

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

1:50 Beverley 2YO Racing Tips (11th Aug) RACING UK HD EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Fillies' Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on good to firm going. A busy day so I will try to keep this shortish and sweet. I struggle to keep this info brief as I'm a consummate professional. 

The betting would suggest this is a three-horse race. I would agree. 

Street Jazz has shown a glimmer of ability for James Givens on her two starts to date. I prefer others although it is beyond the realms she sneaks a place. I would suspect she will run on and could be outpaced.

Hugo Palmer has a tremendous string of juveniles and Bithynia has been short priced on both her starts to date. This daughter of Kodiac was an expensive breeze-up purchase at 210,000G. This bay was made 11/8f on debut at Sandown, running against the rail, held every chance but outpaced in the closing stages by the talented Grizzel, while Naafer, second, has won since. Next start, Bithynia stepped up an extra furlong in a hot maiden at Goodwood where the winning prize money topped £12,000. Racing in the familiar silks of owner V I Araci, this April foal was much too keen, finding herself off the lead, and then when she did hit the front paid for those earlier exertions tired into 6th. It is likely Hugo Palmer drops her back to the minimum distance to counter that keenness. By all accounts, this is a drop in class but there may be a couple of juveniles who have similar ideas. Interesting the trainer gives the apprentice a ride. Gordon, is in fine form so I would class this as a negative although it does suggest connections feel they need every advantage going and respectful that this juvenile will be worth a lot more money in future if winning. Definitely a horse with a touch of class but perhaps slight temperament problems. 

Mark Johnston has been outstanding these last two years since their juvenile string increased markedly and their training regime too. Queen In Waiting is very interesting and I have heard a good word or two about this daughter of Exceed And Excel. This grey/roan filly runs in the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. This homebred is held in some regard but it will take a bold display to win on debut against a couple of juveniles who will be primed for the day. A wide draw isn't ideal and she will be better over an extra furlong.

David Brown's two-year-olds have been in very good form this week and One Too Many, racing in the familiar silks of John Fretwell, is worthy of respect. A good draw in stall two. This grey daughter of  Zebedee wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Nottingham when comprehensively outpaced. The winner and second held the rest well that day and One Too Many was most likely sent out needing the run. This 30,000G yearling purchase stepped up to 6f next start and was made 33/1 racing at auction class. She led and was headed in the closing stages to be beaten by less than one length. By race type, this is a step up in class and you have to slightly question if the starting prize suggested such a bold show wasn't expected. The form of that race isn't easy to assess although it wasn't a bad standard. Whether this drop in distance will be positive is also something to consider. 

 Conclusion:  Potentially a three-horse race but a few question marks about all. Bithynia is definitely the form pick and this drop to the minimum trip shouldn't be a problem and help negate his keenness seen over 6f.  With the fear of Queen In Waiting, I wouldn't be betting at relatively short odds. Mark Johnston's filly could well be a class act and I know she is held in high regard. However, a wide draw is a concern. It is never easy for a debutante to start near to the wing. It is a blessing one horse is on her outside. Johnston usually has his better prospects fit and ready to roll but a tardy start could make this very hard work. I feel she will be a better horse over 6f but if as good as I've heard should take some beating if breaking on terms. If touching each-way prices it would make more appeal. One Too Many drops back in distance and whether that is an issue only time will tell. She looked to run well last time out but it is a puzzle why she started at such huge odds. Queen In Waiting is worth an each-way bet if available at each-way prices.   

  

   

Tuesday, 9 August 2016

2:00 Beverley 2yo Racing (10th Aug) ST STEPHEN´S MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f  on good to firm going. A restricted race type which generally favours form horses. 

Sir Viktor is a strapping son of Sir Prancealot, racing in the familiar silks of Kristian Strangeway. This bay colt made a monkey out of me at Yarmouth because I was convinced he would struggle to drop back to 6f after running well to finish fourth at Beverley over 7.5f. Considering he started his career over the minimum trip, you have to consider that Karl Burke wasn't quite sure what trip would be best although, to be fair, Sir Viktor is probably versatile. This Irish-bred didn't lack for pace at Yarmouth and had his opposition off their bridles enjoying the sea air with the choke out as he zipped clear of the field but collared in the closing stages beaten less than two lengths. That was a fair performance. It will be interesting to see if he has the pace to try and crack this field in the early stages but it is worth noting that the difference between five and six furlongs from a pace angle is marked. The positive with Sir Viktor is that you know he will have the stamina to run to the line so unless he really is pushed too fast he should be competitive here. Time will tell whether he tries to lead. At a lower level, I would rather a horse finish a race than try to lead all the way. I would be surprised if he has the pace to lead here but after last time out I made to look like a monkey's uncle this time round. Intriguing horse at this grade.

Rag Tatter showed a very little ability of debut at Pontefract when an outsider at odds of 20-1. This bay gelding was 25-1 when making his next start at Nottingham. This son of Kheleyf finished second splitting two juveniles with lively reputations. He did have the advantage of race experience against the debutantes in question so perhaps they were a little ring rusty or he made the most of a good start and battling qualities. The winner [Eaton Square, trained by John Gosden] didn't look like it knew what was being asked but a strapping colt who will be racing at Group class by his physical stature, expensive price tag, and connections. The third horse [Vaulted] ran well at Thirsk on Tuesday when finishing runner-up and beaten by a smart juvenile. If Rat Tag's form can be taken to be a true reflection of the first and third when running at Nottingham, he will be very hard to beat. That's the gamble.   

Mama Africa has been fancied in the betting on both starts to date. This brown filly, a daughter of Big Bad Bob, was beaten quite easily on debut and not disgraced when finishing third over the minimum trip at Thirsk last time out. David Barron has raced this filly quite sparingly so she may have had an issue or two. In a race of this nature, she will have the pace to sit handy and has each-way claims if this race turns out to be weak. She has limitations but so do most in this field. 

Lou's Diamond was 50-1 but less than one length behind Mama Africa that day after leading for a long way. There may not be a great deal between this pair. 

Mark Johnston has been in exceptional form this season. Celestation is an Irish-bred daughter of Excelerbration and a cheap yearling purchase 13,000G. By all accounts, this is a stable syndicate horse for Kingsley Park. Difficult to assess but could be well birthed in stall one, if getting out of the traps. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Alan Swinbank has a small string of two-year-olds but a trainer I take particular note when running on their second start. Little Miss Lola was relatively fancied on debut and then ran well enough next time out at Carlisle second behind Bryan Smart's talented juvenile Alicante Dawn. That was a small field and it may well be the case this daughter of Dandy Man was flattered. She was half fancied when running for a third time at Carlisle but literally dropped in a hole after leading on good to soft going. The first two were decent performers but the rest of the field were detached and Little Miss Lola will need to show much more today.

A Bit Of Ginger looks unfancied in the betting. May be worthy of interest if well backed but best watch if weak in the market. 

Conclusion: A low-class race but interesting in its own way. Trying to assess the form of a few makes difficult reading. If Rag Tatter's form can be believed this will be all about Kevin Ryan's two-year-old. The only problem is wondering if he was somehow flattered that day. On balance, I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Sir Viktor is a big, strong colt who will make most of these look small. He is a progressive horse and it will be interesting if he is sent to the front or whether he has the pace to try. In these low-class affairs, it can be a strength to run on and finish a race  as most go a stride too fast and pay the price in the final furlong. It may be a positive if he is slightly outpaced and finishes with zeal. I would be surprised if Sir Viktor doesn't hit the frame and hold win chances.