Thursday, 22 June 2017

Thursday's Racing Tips


Thursday 22nd June

1:50 Chelmsford - 

Central City is proving frustrating, beaten on all three starts to date for Hugo Palmer. To be fair, this son of Kodiac has run respectably on each start including a fine effort in the Lily Agnes Stakes. His debut effort at Doncaster reads well. A third at Chester is worthy of praise. His most recent contest saw him beaten by a talented juvenile in Great Prospector. Richard Fahey's charge will be racing at Group class. Third best Kit Marlow is a fair sort. He and Central City led that day. Both may have gone a stride too fast. 

This is a drop in class, being an auction race and a return to the minimum trip is a positive. The application of blinkers looks unnecessary, but I guess Palmer is trying every angle too win. 

There is a concern that a horse may regress after a few hard races and that is a possibility with Central City and needs to be factored into the price. 

Ed Walker's Simpson doesn't hold any Group race entries at present but likely to do so in the near future. This son of Dragon Pulse was well-backed on debut and ran a sterling race. 

The winners is a fair horse for the grade and Simpson was clear of the third. This drop back in distance shouldn't be a problem although the pace between five and six furlongs can be significant. 

From a statistical point of view, this horse has sound claims. 

In conclusion, I expect both horses to run well. There is a slight concern that Central City may regress at some point and invariably be a short price when doing so. Simpson will run his race and more guaranteed. At the odds, I can't see how you can make much use of these horses. You could go bet on both but that is often a hard way of making money. You only need one horse to pop up with ability. They look the type to put in an each-way double.       

6:20 Lingfield -  

George Baker has been very quiet this season with his two-year-olds and proven limited so far. Chess Move was noted by the trainer earlier this season which gives some hope. 

Interesting to note this bay colt is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. 

This son of Kodiac cost 120,000G at the yearling sales. Baker doesn't have many juveniles in training and this is a significant purchase for the stable. The stable, in general, has a poor strike rate with debutantes. In fact, he is often very poor. Baker has won with debutantes but these are often exceptionally well backed. Ferguson's horses are often supported in the market is fancied to go well. You could bet early and anticipate a gamble which could put you in a good position to lay off to a no-lose bet if using the exchanges.I would let the market tell the story. Even if well backed I would tend to be reserved with this stable because I have seen a few at short prices on debut look very inexperienced. If backed to crazy short odds (1/1) it would be a huge pointer but at those odds, I wouldn't get involved. The only angle I can see is betting and hope he is backed to shorter odds. However, you are kind of betting a horse will be gambled rather than whether you actually think it can win.

Move Over has been noted by Richard Hannon. He ran a fair race on debut. Bookmakers are giving little away at 11/10. 

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

5:40 Brighton 2YO Racing Tips (20th June) Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 5)

2yo horse racing tps
Tuesday 20th June

5:40 Brighton - 


Alaska has been knocking on the door and gone close in all three starts to date. A Windsor Castle Listed Race entry details Sylvester Kirk holds her in some regard. Dragon's Teeth disappointed in the Brocklesby Stakes. He held an engagement for the Lily Agnes but didn't take it. This son of Dragon Pulse found himself in a very strong Novice Stakes at Haydock on soft ground and trailed home many lengths behind. He is best judged on his second at Kempton. Jo Hughes' charge has plenty of pace but limited in some respects. This idiosyncratic course may suit.   


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Monday, 19 June 2017

Monday's Racing Tip (19th June)

2yo horse racing tips
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6:15 Windsor - 

Gotti is interesting. In truth, I was expecting more when he ran at Brighton on debut. In his defence, the form of that race is working out well. The winner, second & third have been entered for Royal Ascot so by general course standards it seems as though he bumped into a few fair types. The blinkers have been removed. It's the only ride for Gerald Mosse. He is probably retained by the owners. He drops back to 5f which is a slight concern considering he struggled to go the pace over five and a half furlongs on debut. That may have been due to inexperience but it is a concern. He looked a touch lazy. A wide draw, again, isn't ideal. However, he still holds an entry for the Railway Stakes Group 2 (Ireland). That experience must help see a more professional display. From a statistical point of view, he holds decent win and place claims. I still feel a slight niggling doubt as to whether he will be outpaced in the early stages before running on at the death. For exchange players, you may get much bigger odds in-running.   

Interesting to note that David Evans has Time For Wine entered to run at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes Group 3. She cost 20,000E and presently priced 20/1 for this contest [Windsor]. Sometimes trainers enter horses from Royal Ascot simply for a day out or to get owner's and trainer's badges. Only time will tell if this is the reason for such an entry. If she has an abundance of ability, I would expect to see her heavily backed. 

6:45 Windsor - 

Quick Skips Lad held an entry for the Brocklesby Stakes. He is a consistent, battling horse. He was beaten by a fair animal at plating class when behind Milton Road, who wasn't disgraced in the SKF Rous Selling Stakes at York [worth almost £10,000]. Stan Moore must be confident Quick Skips Lad can win at this level. He steps up in distance which may be ok. There is always a slight concern when a horse changes trip, although he looks a fair prospect of getting this extra furlong. It is often a plus to finish a race at this level rather than blast a trail and fold in the closing stages. From a low draw, he may lead. This gelding should win. At 2/1 I'd take a watching brief just because this extra furlong is an unknown. He may improve for this stiffer task.I would rather see him race over 5f. 

Saturday, 17 June 2017

Saturday's Racing Tips 17th June

2yo racing tips 1:35 Musselburgh -

A few of these have been noted by trainers and this looks a competitive heat. Palmer ran well last time out. He is very small but fast. Rocket Man Dan ran in the Brocklesby Stakes but regressive. He is held by Palmer on their recent effort and best watched. Shobrom is another capable horse. Ce De Nuilles wasn't fancied when making her debut in the Hilary Needler at 33/1 but ran on to finish third. On form, that looks a great effort. She was outpaced early and you have to wonder if she was a touch flattered. She may be a fair type but I wouldn't rush in at shortish odds. Jive Lady was given a Listed entry but proven to be a short runner and unless strengthening up is best watched. 


Conclusion: A tricky race. A number of these have ability but the major fancies don't look to hold much value unless drifting to each-way prices. Musselburgh is a difficult track and a number of these like to lead. If they go a stride too fast it could well play into the hands of a horse which sits off the pace. I like Palmer to hit the frame. I would be more optimistic if he is held up off the pace as seen last time out. 


3:00 Bath - 


Short Call ran in a small race on debut but the form looks good with the second winning at Sandown next start. This daughter of Kodiac has a couple of entries for Royal Ascot but connections look to be taking a more prudent option although she has to carry a penalty. *Pursuing The Dream has plenty of speed and wasn't disgraced behind the smart winner Consequences. Jamie Osborne has given her a Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 entry although that looks an impossible task to win. She has a good draw, plenty of pace and could, perhaps, steal a few lengths lead over the favourite and hope to hang on.


*NR

6:50 Lingfield - 


A big field. Debutante Dusty is quite interesting here. Mick Channon has her entered for the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) which indicates some ability. Connections are clearly heading for this easier target than the Royal meeting. Presently priced 14/1. Needs to be backed to about 8/1 & less to figure as a live chance. Take Shelter is rated by Tate. She ran well first and second start. She has been given a couple of hard races which does bring slight concerns that she is regressing. That last effort at Newmarket was poor and brings question marks. In her defence, Tate has given her a good rest, which may indicate she suffered an injury last start. It is positive that this daughter of Harbour Watch has been considered for Royal Ascot. If back to best should go well although at short odds I wouldn't want to take the gamble even though I do think this bay filly will go well. 


7:40 Leicester - 


Izzy Bizu is well regarded by Mark Johnston. She won well at Carlisle after showing limitations at York. I think she will try to lead but I do wonder if that last success was as much to do with the opposition falling by the way. This winner's penalty will make life more difficult as she is only small. 


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Tuesday, 13 June 2017

Tuesday's Racing Tips

Not a great deal of time so I will keep this to the point. 

2:00 Salisbury -

Initiative caught the eye on debut for Henry Spiller. In many respects, it was a remarkable performance to finish runner-up after a slow start. 

Joegogo could be a viable each-way alternative if prices allow. 

Clive Cox has a good string of juveniles and Autumn Leaves is worth noting in the betting. Has fair each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less. It would be significant if started 4/1 or less. 

2:15 Yarmouth -

All debutantes. The betting should help sort the wheat from the chaff. Marco Botti can win with debutantes and does well at this seaside course. Early Dawn may hold each-way claims if priced 10/1 & less SP. Best watched if outside this guide. 

Michael Bell has a handful of talented two-year-olds headed by the impressive Main Desire. First Drive is owned by the Queen and ridden by Ryan Moore who has three rides here. This homebred daughter of Street Cry is worthy of respect if priced 13/2 & less SP.

One trainer who hits the turf running here is Roger Varian who fields Hermosita who races in the familiar silks of Newsells Park Stud. This daughter of Exceed And Excel comes from a good family. 

Simon Crisford has been in the superior form with his two-year-olds of last season which saw most win on debut. However, this year's lack is due to numbers rather than disappointments. Tell Me cost 80,000E at the yearling sales. Worthy of respect especially if backed.    

Another trainer who sends smart juveniles to Yarmouth is John Gosden. Tivoli is a daughter of Dark Angel and expensive yearling purchase at 180,000G. Hold decent each-way claims. 

Conclusion: Definitely let the betting settle because it may highlight a few weak links. Hermosita, Tell Me & Tivoli look to be the major hopes. In fact, all three trainers can go very well with debutantes so a difficult race. Early Dawn & First Drive would make this a tough race to assess if in their respective betting guides. I would take a watching brief.   


2:30 Salisbury - 

Aquadrabra has been running consistently behind a few fair types, Not sure if I would jump in at short odds but if drifting a touch in the betting looks the sort to put in an each-way double or treble. 

Sunday, 11 June 2017

1:50 Nottingham Racing Tips (11th June) EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

Santry, Declan Carroll
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 8y on soft ground. Eight two-year-olds take part: six horses with race experience and two debutantes. 

Richard Hannon's stable has a wealth of talents. Body Builder is a son of Power and cost £42,000 at the yearling sales. This February foal was fancied in the betting when making his debut at Salisbury. However, he could never quite get involved although beaten under five lengths in sixth. The form of that race is probably fair. Certainly, the winner, Youkan, trained by Stuart Kittow, proved something of a surprise package to punters. He was backed from 40-1 so the stable must have felt their sizable son of Choisir would be in with a shout. He won well. 

Perhaps Body Builder had been flexing his muscles on the gallops because he was well backed when making a return to course and distance. A form line with Joegogo suggested he ran a similar race. The form of that contest has been franked. The winner, Nine Below Zero, was keen but shot clear in the closing stages. A tidy win, under a penalty at Windsor next time out, indicates that Ralph Beckett's charge is high class. The second, third & fourth all have ability. Body Builder was in the mix. This race shouldn't be as competitive. A horse with a fighting chance but may be prone to a talented opponent.

The betting suggests this is a pretty open affair. 

Peter Leonard is better than seen on debut when making his first start at York. That venue in itself is a pointer worthy of note because Richard Fahey doesn't send poor horses to that course. This bay colt is a son of Kyllachy and 70,000G yearling purchase. Although a Median Auction Stakes, it was a tough contest. The first three are fair types. So what happened to Peter Leonard? He pulled much too hard and ruined his chance. He was priced 6-1 which adds to hope he was expected to go well. Fahey gave this February foal a Brian Yeardley Stakes entry, one of three horses. He needs to settle and show fewer signs of temperament. However, that exuberance may well have been down to inexperience and if those loftier plans were at all realistic he should run well.          

Declan Carroll doesn't have the biggest string of juveniles but has always been a trainer who can shine when given a horse with ability. He has shown that with Santry who won the Brocklesby Stakes and then defied a penalty, cruising to an impressive victory. Santry will be heading to Royal Ascot and likely to show a few big guns who is the boss.

Carroll fields two horses here. 

Back in April, Bee Machine made his debut in the second division of the Brocklesby. This son of Footstepsinthesand was fancied in the betting. In fact, to start at odds of 8-1 suggests the stable had some confidence. This 50,00G buy finished ninth. He hasn't been seen since that run. That may indicate he suffered an injury or had issues. The betting is the best guide. If strong in the market it would be encouraging especially considering his stablemate is the smart Santry.

Carroll comes here double handed with Abel Handy. This son of Arcano was a breeze-up purchase costing just £16,000. The stable can win with horses making their racecourse bow. The betting is key. If strongly fancied in the betting it may be significant. If weak, I would take a watching brief.

Mark Johnston hasn't hit the heights of previous years. His two-year-olds are, on average, not as strong as the last two seasons. W G Grace wasn't fancied on debut when making his appearance at Catterick over 5f. The form of that race looks fair but this son of Exceed And Excel really needs to show much more zest for racing on this second start. In fact, unless he needed the race I would have grave doubts about this horse winning. Horses can improve markedly from first to the second start. The betting will be the best guide. If weak in the market, I would take a watching brief. If seriously backed, it would bring greater hope. 

William Muir is a capable trainer. Cent Flying wasn't best fancied when making his debut at Newmarket over 6f. He was very keen, held up in rear, and made no impression. Muir drops this horse in trip mostly probably trying to nullify his tendency to pull. The betting is key. The stable can go well with horses on their second start and if priced 15/2 & less SP may have each-way claims. If outside this guide, best watched. 

Newmarket trainer Martin Smith hasn't really registered with me for his two-year-old runners, not having a winner in the last five years from a dozen runs. That doesn't mean to say he cannot win. Roman River is a son of Holy Roman Emperor cost 43,000G at the yearling sales. I would have to take a watching brief.        

Peas On Earth shows limited ability on debut. Derek Shaw's horse will improve for that racecourse bow but best watched today. 

Conclusion: I would let the betting settle before jumping in with both feet. The only exception to that may be if you fancy Peter Leonard and think he will be backed. If this colt is a powerhouse, he will be backed. Body Builder sets a fair level without being a talent. He will run a race and likely to hit the frame but may be prone at short odds. I must admit, Peter Leonard could be a dark horse. He ruined his chances on debut but racing at York plus a recent Brian Yeardley Stakes entry does give some confidence. If less keen I would expect this horse to hit the frame. Declan Carroll's representatives are best assessed by the betting. The shorter of the two in the market is the most likely. Not the easiest of trainers to assess but someone who can make waves. Bee Machine cost a fair sum and was a short price for the Brocklesby Stakes. It could be a sign of significance. W G Grace didn't inspire on debut. Unless he was seriously in need of the race on debut I would take a watching brief. If seriously backed, it would bring greater hope. 

Saturday, 10 June 2017

1:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (10th June) Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (Class 4) (2yo)

Charlie Appleby at Newmarket racecourse
A Novice Stakes over 6f on good going. Ten two-year-olds take part. The leading contenders are detailed. A very competitive race. A few of these are talents so take note.

Al Fujairah was quite fancied on debut and held in some regard by Hannon. He was coltish that day and only tired in the closing stages. 

Could go well at a price. 

*Central City has been running creditably and steps up in distance. 

Glorious Journey has been entered for a couple of significant races and Charlie Appleby's stable have been unstoppable this season with debut winners. 

Grand Koonta ran well enough on debut when fancied in the betting. Clive Cox has a good string of juveniles and adds to a competitive heat. 

John Gosden has been a little slow with his two-year-old crop this season but Qayes cost 400,000G at the yearling sales. The stable can go well with their debutantes although the betting is the best indicator here. If priced 13/2 SP & less holds sound each-way claims. If weak in the betting best watched. 

David Elsworth is another trainer who hasn't been seen with many juveniles this season. This could well be the first. Cosmopolitan Queen is well owned by J C Smith. This chestnut filly is priced 20/1 in the betting but very well bred. It is interesting to note that Elsworth often sends his better prospects to start at Newmarket. If a huge price, it may suggest she needs the race. 

Take Me With You is an American-bred daughter of Scat Daddy who cost $800,000 at two. I know for a fact Jeremy Noseda rates this filly and she should run well. 

Conclusion: A tough-looking race which will take some winning. I would definitely follow the placed horse after this because there will be numerous talents progress from this contest. I really wouldn't like to pick one horse. It may be advisable to let the betting settle before taking the plunge as it may just highlight one or two weak links. Pretty sure Al Fujairah, Glorious Journey & Take Me With You have ability. With a few other potentially smart youngsters in the line-up, I would have to take a watching brief. 

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* Central City NR 

Thursday, 8 June 2017

2:40 Haydock Racing Tips (8th June) Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) Card

Gift In Time, James Givens
A Novice Stakes over 5f on good to soft going. Learn the history of Haydock racecourse at Racecourse Directory

Six runners but to all purposes a four-horse race. 

Seyaady looked every inch a winner on debut at Carlisle but the photo showed Mark Johnston's son of Exceed And Excel had been headed on the line. The form of that race looks sound. Certainly holds strong claims here although this may be a tougher race than first viewed. 

Dragon's Teeth is a fair gelding. He wasn't given a very good ride on debut when his jockey went a stride too fast. This son of Dragon Pulse was fancied to go well the second start at Kempton in a small field but couldn't cope with the winner, Plunder, trained by Paul Cole. Jo Hughe's charge has plenty of pace but may struggle to hold one or two horses on the upgrade. 

Tom Dascombe's Big Time Maybe was backed to short odds on debut at Bath and looked to have the race at his mercy until Mutanaaseq flew in the final furlong to steal a tidy winner. Richard Hannon's victor was in need of the run that day and improved markedly on his second start. 

Big Time Maybe was relatively fancied when making his second start in the Lily Agnes Stakes at Chester. He was beaten a long way, running on the outside of the course, a consequence of a wide draw which done this April foal no favours. It is next to impossible to run a race when pushed wide on this turning course. That disappointment is best forgotten. Not been seen for a month. Connections will be hoping for better today although the form of that initial start shouldn't be taken as read. 

The only debutante in the field hails from James Given's stable. Gift In Time would seem to have a mountain to climb facing opponents with valuable race experience. It is never easy for a horse to win on its racecourse bow although a straight is much easier than a turning course which compounds problems.This bay colt is a son of Societ Rock out of an unraced mare. He cost £75,000 when purchased at two by The Cool Silk Partnership. These owners do particularly well with their breeze-up purchases and go well for Givens who has found success at this course over the years with some talented juveniles. This trainer from Willoughton, Lincolnshire, has a couple of fair juveniles to assess the quality of his string including Mistress Of Venice and it is worth noting Gift In Time had been earmarked for the Brian Yeardley Continental (10th June) at Beverley. It would seem connections have decided to take this race as a prudent option. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this juvenile backed or run a big race. 

Sir Walter & Darkanna need to find marked improvement and better suited to upcoming nursery races.  

Conclusion: An interesting race. Seyaady ran well on debut. I think connections were slightly surprised how well he run imagining that inexperience would tell. In truth, he was unlucky to be nabbed on the line. The form of that race looks sound. 

Although respecting this colt's chances I wouldn't be betting at 6/5f. I would be fearful of the opposition. 

Both Dragon's Teeth and Big Time Maybe are speedy horses who could make this a fast-run race. They may burn each other out if disputing the lead, especially under these testing conditions. Dragon's Teeth may just struggle to cope with a smart horse and flounder at the finish if setting the fractions. 

Big Time Maybe ran well on debut. It would be a mistake to consider he is of a similar standard to the winner. 

Nothing was learned at Chester. 

Dascombe's charge has pace and ability but assessing the quantity is difficult. 

Gift In Time could well be the dark horse of the race at 10/1. The Brian Yeardley entry, well owned, breeze-up purchase & good trainer stats give confidence. The problem betting on debutantes is that you have to take a leap of faith. I am pretty sure this horse has ability but needs to be sharp. A slow start, unless a true talent, would make this very difficult. I wouldn't knock anyone having a speculative bet on this horse. What I would say, if you are betting on the favourite, definitely have a small cover bet on this horse just to protect your interests.    

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Tuesday, 6 June 2017

2:10 Wetherby Racing Tips ( 6th June) Novice Median Auction Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo)

Tom Dascombe Horse Trainer
A Median Auction Stakes over 51/2f on good going. Nine two-year-olds declared. I've not got a great deal of time so I will keep this to the basics. 

Dontgiveuponbob looks to have bold claims. Richard Fahey's charge, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, ran well on debut when in need of the race. The form of that contest has been franked. This bay colt then made his second start in a valuable maiden at York. Dropping down to an auction race gives the impression connections have found a winnable race. 

Magnus might be a fair each-way alternative if the favourite is backed to a silly price. This son of Makfi finished last on debut at Ripon when not unfancied in the betting. Tom Dascombe's horse was sent off 20-1 next start at Redcar when stepping up in distance. He finished sixth of fourteen, beaten under five lengths. The form of that race has worked out well at this level. If slightly forgotten in the betting, there is a fair chance this horse will either be backed or he will run respectably at big odds. 

No time to write a detailed post so this starts and ends with these two horses. 

Conclusion: To be honest, Dontgiveuponbob is going to take a lot of beating. However, the old saying of not to be frightened by one horse often rings true. They still have to run their race which isn't always as easy as going through the motions. It may well be the case but there are no guarantees. Magnus' form, being ninth and sixth, doesn't look that great on paper but that second start deserves respect. I would be hoping that the favourite starts at short odds-on and this horse drifts to big prices on the exchanges. It might be a wise decision rather than betting each-way to place a cover bet on the favourite at 8/11 (if lucky bigger) and put a few shillings on Magnus at big prices on the win market. If the favourite wins no loss and if Dascombe's charge springs a surprise it will be a day to remember. The favourite will go well so you may have to pray for a disappointment. 

Fingers crossed. 

Monday, 5 June 2017

Monday's Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips 2:00 Thirsk - 

An Auction Stakes over 6f on Good to Firm going. Eleven two-year-olds take part. Mabo ran well on debut and will appreciate this extra furlong. Michael Dod's debutantes feature decent place claims when making their racecourse bow. Byron's Choice may have a chance although, strangely his two-year-olds often go better at bigger odds than shorter. Another Day Of Sun is interesting. Mick Channon isn't the powerhouse of old but his juveniles have been showing a bit of form. This son of Camacho is a good-looking chestnut colt and a good buy at 26,000E. He made his debut in a hot Goodwood Novice Stakes and this is a drop in class. I would expect a big run. Karl Burke's Emerald Rocket achieved little on debut at Redcar but was backed which brings greater hope for this second start. If priced less that 40/1 may be something of a dark horse but definitely more of a speculative punt than something you would bet your mortgage. Harvest Day made her debut at York for Michael Easterby, which is most likely a significant venue and pointer that connections hold this filly in some regard. 

Conclusion: Interesting race. There could be a few here with some hope, including outsiders with a glimmer. Mabo and Another Day Of Sun are most likely to prevail. I'm pretty sure the latter is held in some regard by connections. Emerald Rocket may be worth an each-way punt at big odds but if priced 40/1 or greater is less likely. I would wait until the off before jumping in unless you take the price anticipating a gamble. That approach can be good and day depended on the money. Harvest Day is similarly interesting and good is a worthy each-way poke. I very much doubt Easterby sent this filly to York for any other reason than considering she has some ability. 

5:40 Windsor - 

A tricky race. This looks a trappy contest and I will be watching. However, the favourite, Nine Below Zero, ran very well on debut and has a touch of class. A good-looking colt who was exuberant on that racecourse debut but still held all comers without any trouble. Choice Encounter is an able sort but I think not quite up to the favourite although benefits from a 6lb pull with the jolly. Lethal Lunch was made favourite over course and distance but never really going. The form of that race has been franked but with this son of Lethal Force has been off course a long time which suggests there was an issue with injury. Hannon has given this grey colt a 'proper' stakes entry which is a significant pointer that he is fancied to go well and I'd be quite confident this April foal will be winning if not competing at a higher grade.