Wednesday, 4 October 2017

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (4th October)

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo). Twelve two-year-olds take part over 6f on Standard to Slow going. Nine juveniles have race experience with three making their debut. A number of leading trainers. 

It is worth your while visiting for the best betting odds.  

An intriguing contest. 

The betting suggests this is out of seven juveniles.

Roger Charlton has been a little quiet this season although captured the imagination which his debut winner Herculean. L'Explora is a well-bred daughter of War Front and expensive yearling purchase at $320,000. A relatively wide draw isn't ideal but a trainer who can go very well with fancied debutantes. 

Brian Meehan hasn't achieved a great deal this season. Mushahadaat looked a winner waiting to happen after a promising debut when starting favourite at Newbury when runner-up to Mayyasah. The betting suggested a big run was expected second start when made the jolly at Goodwood. The soft ground didn't help and I drew a line through that performance. Dropping back to 5f at Chepstow - favourite, again - saw another below-par performance. As far as punters are concerned, this daughter of Invincible Spirit has been a burning thorn in their side. This step back up in distance may help as well as a first start on the all-weather. A wide draw isn't good news. Cheek pieces have been applied to concentrate the mind. I suspect there is more to be seen with this juvenile but she has been hard work. 

Scandaleuse is a homebred daughter of War Front in the ownership of Flaxman Stables Ireland Ltd. Sir Michael Stoute's bay filly was fancied to go well on debut over course and distance but finished second from last. She needs to show more here. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less SP would register but if outside this guide would be a negative.

Society Lilly was a beaten favourite. This daughter of Society Rock was a relatively cheap yearling purchase at £32,000. She didn't achieve a great deal on debut at Ascot in testing ground. Perhaps that was the issue. More will be needed. If weak in the betting, it would be enough for me to look elsewhere. 

Andrew Balding is a capable trainer whose horses can go well on debut even at bigger odds. Silver Swift is well birthed in stall two. This daughter of Dutch Art cost £42,000 at the yearling sales. Would have claims if priced 10./1 & less SP, especially so if 7/1 & less.

I always find Richard Hannon a difficult trainer to assess with debutantes. No More Thrills cost 160,000G at the yearling sales so a pretty expensive buy. Worthy of interest if well backed. 

Chizz De Biz would be worthy of note if backed. 

Conclusion: Not the easiest of races to assess. I would let the betting settle before taking the plunge. It may knock one or two of these on the head. L'Explora could go well if strong in the market. If Scandaleuse, Society Lilly, Silver Swift & No More Thrills are priced  13/2 & less SP it would give some hope. If weak in the market I would take it as a negative. Mushahadaat may have ability but been a serial offender and I would take a watching brief although not surprised if sparking into life. 

Monday, 2 October 2017

Labour to Tax Bookmakers over Problem Gambling

Tom Watson - Tax Bookmakers
Labour calls for bookmakers to pay towards gambling addicts' NHS treatment

If Labour gets its way, bookmakers may face a levy to fund NHS treatment in an attempt to curb problem gambling.  

Labour will investigate how mental health services are coping with the impact of soaring numbers of addicted gamblers. Reports suggest problem gambling has increased by two-thirds in the last three years. 

Tom Watson, Shadow Cultural secretary, will hammer gambling firms who ''deliberately target'' the most vulnerable. They will review how a tax could fund NHS treatment for those whose lives are affected by addiction. 

The Gambling Commission has estimated that around 440,000 people over 16 suffer from a serious gambling habit. While two million others can be views as problem gamblers or at risk of gambling addiction. 

Speaking at the Labour party conference, Mr Watson said:  Some gambling companies, driven by greed, are deliberately targeting our poorest communities even as hundreds of thousands of lives are ruined by addiction. The number of problem gamblers in this country has risen by a third in just three years. Two million people are either problem gamblers or at risk of addiction.

Children and young people are being targeted by betting adverts, while some betting firms make it difficult for addicts to opt out of online gambling, he will claim.

Gambling companies are even harvesting data to deliberately target low-income gamblers and people who have given up gambling. More than half of companies profit from 'risk' gamblers. This has to stop. Gambling companies must be held to account for this abuse of trust and power. "Can you imagine the uproar that would ensue if drinks manufacturers targeted members of Alcoholics Anonymous by selling vodka outside AA meetings? We wouldn't tolerate that - and we should no longer tolerate the same pattern of irresponsible behaviour by some bookmakers."

The party insists they will crack down on fixed-odds betting machines, which have been criticised in recent years. These games feature a maximum stake of £100. Calls for the sum to be reduced to just £2 have been discussed. 

In addition, there have been calls for bookmakers sponsoring football to be stopped. 

At present, gambling forms give 0.1 percent of their profits to GambleAware which funds education, prevention and treatment services. 

The Association of British Bookmakers said: They backed " an evidence-based approach to helping problem gambling in the UK" and would support the probe, if it facilitated this. A spokesman said: "We also would not oppose an appropriate, compulsory levy on the gambling industry to fund problem gambling treatment, as we have long argued that the gambling industry needs to work together to reduce the number of problem gamblers and address the fact that most problem gamblers move between different forms of gambling."

Wednesday, 27 September 2017

6:10 Kempton Racing Tips (27th September)

V I Araci - Hugo Palmer
7f  Novice Stakes  (Plus 10) (Div I) (Class 4) (2yo) on Standard to Slow going. 

Thirteen two-year-olds take part: Eight debutantes taking on lightly-race opponents. 

Two horses catch the eye. Both were meant to run in the Convivial maiden at York but William Haggas' Nicklaus was a non-runner that day.  

This chestnut colt is a son of Exceed And Excel and expensive yearling purchase at 180,000. Racing in the familiar silks of M J Jooste, this March foal was pretty fancied on debut at Newmarket over six furlongs. Little went right that day. He finished last and that race is best forgotten because this juvenile is much better than seen so far. The fact that he was meant to race at York in the Convivial is a significant pointer. In addition, he has been earmarked for another Group race. This step up in distance is positive. A wide draw (9) isn't ideal but that initial experience should see him sit in a handy position. You are clearly basing this horse's chance on reputation rather than form. However, there is plenty of pointers to suggest he will go well on his second start. 

Corrosive made his debut in the Convivial. This American-bred of Uncle Mo, in the ownership of V I Araci, hails from a top stable in Hugo Palmer, who has done particularly well with his juveniles this season often on their second start. This bay colt was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 150,000G. He started 33/1 on debut. The Convivial feature the biggest price money for any juvenile maiden at £43,575. It is worth more than a number of Group races. The majority of juveniles racing in this contest are held in high regard by their respective trainers. Corrosive finished in fifth place just over six lengths behind the winner. The form has and will be franked. I don't consider this colt one of teh best in the juvenile ranks but up to winning a fair race. From both a form and statistical point of view, this horse holds fair claims. If drifting to each-way odds would make even more appeal. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. I am confident these two horses will run well. A win bet on both may yield a return. However, I would be looking to bet Corrosive each-way if prices allow.   

Sunday, 24 September 2017

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Saturday, 9 September 2017

Saturday's Racing Tips (9th September)

Saturday 9th September - 

1:35 Ascot - 

Noted juveniles: Danceteria.

Interesting:  Danceteria wasn't disgraced when running over a mile at Goodwood. He travelled well and I suspect connected were hoping for more. This horse is held in decent regard and dropping back to seven furlongs a positive move. With experience on side, he could hold each-way claims at 16/1. 

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1:45 Thirsk - 

Noted juveniles: Alkhawaneej Boy.

Interesting: The sole significant entrant Alkhawaneej Boy. Kevin Ryan can train debut winners although they can be a little hit and miss. However, this doesn't look the strongest of races so connections will be expecting a bold show. 

2:10 Ascot - 

Noted juveniles: Arabian Sea, Arthenia, Lubinka, Sheikha Reika & Soliloquy. 

Very interesting:  This looks a very hot Novice Stakes. Arthenia wasn't fancied on debut and most likely needed the race. To be fair, she ran a good race and this step up to a mile will suit. That initial experience will see her well. She may hold claims today at 25/1 but this is such a competitive heat it could be a difficult race to call. Lubinka was noted on her debut but so weak in the betting I thought she may have needed the race. By the way she ran, that looks unlikely. A strapping filly who will be fit and ready for today. Charlie Appleby can do little wrong with his juveniles and Soliloquy is held in high regard and beaten favourite on debut but did little wrong in second place. Roger Varian's horses haven't been in the best of form of late but Sheikha Reika is held in high regard and one of the better juveniles in the stable. She will need to be primed to give valuable experience but a horse you should respect. Arabian Sea is priced as though limited or needing the race. 

Conclusion: A fascinating but difficult race to call. Soliloquy sets the standard on form but on soft ground and a number of talented horses in opposition I would be careful. There may be some value in Arthenia but just two places with bookmakers detract. For exchange players (3 or 4 places) she may be worth a small each-way bet. A race to enjoy as much to bet as there will be lots of winners come from this contest. 

2:15 Thirsk - 

Noted juveniles: Travelcard.  

4:30 Ascot - 

Noted juveniles: Agar's Plough.

Interesting: Ed Dunlop's Agar's Plough ran well at 100/1 on debut and one of two horses he entered for the Convivial at York, which is a significant pointer. A couple of well-bred juveniles in opposition but without significant two-year-old entries. Shame this race is just two places with bookmakers. For exchange players, Agar's Plough may be worth a small each-way bet. 

7:00 Wolverhampton - 

Noted juveniles: Bakht Khan.

Interesting: Kevin Ryan's Bakht Khan wasn't overly fancied on debut but a horse held in pretty high regard by connections. He hasn't been seen for a month after a disappointing debut over six furlongs. This drop back to five furlongs is interesting (not sure whether this is a good or bad move) and a plum draw should be a bonus on this turning course if starting well. He is 8/1 with bookmakers. By entries, this colt has a level of ability and worthy of note. 

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Wednesday, 6 September 2017

2:10 Chepstow Racing Tips (6th September)

Dr Johnny Hon
A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5f 16y on good going. Nine two-year-olds take part in this intriguing contest. 

Global Rose is trained by Gay Kelleway and held in some regard. This daughter of Dark Angel races in the ownership of Dr Johnny Hon, bred by Shadwell Estate Company Ltd. This bay wasn't overly fancied on debut at Windsor but we noted this juvenile who could quite easily have won if being a little wiser on her first day at the races. 

She was made a 2-1 favourite second start at Sandown and did little wrong when third just half a length behind May Girl. If available at each-ay odds, I would be interested in this horse's chance. 

Brian Meehan has been rather hit and miss this season with his juveniles but I suspect Mushahadaat is a decent prospect. This daughter of Invincible Spirit was made favourite on debut at Newbury over 6f and finished a creditable second. She was made favourite next time out at Goodwood. However, coniditions turned tretchourous with heavy rain and softening ground. The going clearly didn't suit Mushahadaat. From a statistical point of view, she held very good claims that day. I would ignore that disappointing effort. Meehan does well at this course, which gives confidence. It is interesting to see she has been dropped in distance. I'm not sure this will be to her favour. However, you have to consider the trainer knows best. It is possible she may be outpaced in the early stages before running on. 

Shaya caught the eye on debut. For the simple reason, I was very surprised to see a debutante trained by Roger Fell starting favourite. There must have been some confidence and money behind this daughter of Invincible Spirit. She wasn't disgraced over course and distance behind a few fair types at that grade. I imagine connections were hoping for more. Priced 25-1 with bookmakers at the time of writing. If fancied to go well, I would expect this bay filly to be backed. 

Charles Hills' Kodina wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Newbury over 6f on soft ground. She showed up for a long way and could improve for that first start. Interesting to consider how this drop in distance works. It could be a smart move. Hills' juveniles often go well when priced 13/2 & on their second start. I would use this betting guide to assess her chances today. 

David Simcock and Jamie Spencer make an interesting collaboration. Kaaba Stone is a daughter of Society Rock in the ownership of the Never Say Die Partnership. This bay filly cost 92,000 Euros at the breeze-up sales. She was ridden by Spencer at Ripon when a touch weak in the betting. However, it was a fair-looking contest and she ran well beaten by less than four lengths. Another horse who could go well if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Awesome has raced three times and showed ability.

Conclusion: A competitive race for this course. I would let the betting settle before making your decision and definitely take note of any changes in the going. I doubt Mushahadaat will start if the weather turns. Brian Meehan's charge is of interest. She has been favourite on both starts and that says a lot. Meehan does well at this course. Definitely, the horse to beat. Global Rose could make a fair bet if prices allow an each-way wager. She is one of the best juveniles in Kelleway's stable and going the right way. Difficult to know what to think about Shaya. It is very unusual that Roger Fell's charge to be so well backed on debut althouth the owner is into betting. Adds an intriguing twist. Kaaba & Kodina would have respectable claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. Perhaps, not the easiest fo races to find the winner. Let the betting settle as it may well detail one or two lesser lights. 

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Sunday, 3 September 2017

Sunday's Racing Tips (3rd September)

2:00 Brighton - 

Noted juveniles: Ghepardo & Mother Of Dragons.  

Note: Ghepardo will appreciate this drop back to sprint distances. Mother Of Dragons is held in high regard and not had much luck in recent outings. Far from disgraced in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). She went a stride too fast last time and that race is best ignored. Has decent claims and really needs to win this to progress. 

3:00 Brighton - 

Noted juveniles: Myboyhenry.

Note: Needs to handle a win penalty but the class horse of the field.  

Saturday, 2 September 2017

Saturday Horse Racing Tips

Racing Tips
Saturday 2nd September - 

4:10 Hamilton - 

Noted juveniles: Lethal Lunch.

Note: Lethal Lunch is the sole entry here although a change of stable from Hannon to Clive Cox. As I keep saying, not my favourite race type but the entries do the talking.  

4:50 Hamilton - 

Noted juveniles: Humble Gratitude.

Note: Humble Gratitude is a decent juvenile and connections must be bemused they are still waiting for their first victory. Not much of a price but should go well.  

6:20 Chelmsford - 

Noted juveniles: Billy Dylan is the sole significant entry in this race. Has to shoulder a big weight although the apprentice helps a little. 

6:50 Chelmsford - 

Noted juveniles: Kit Marlow.

Note: Far from the best juvenile in the Johnston stable but a consistent sort at this grade. A trappy-looking race.  

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Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Wednesday's Racing Tips (30th August)

Lady Aurelia
Wednesday 30th August - 

1:50 Catterick - 

Noted juveniles: Cool Spirit.

Note: Short priced but a tough nut to beat. Dropped in class and James Givens will be hoping for a bold show.  

2:00 Musselburgh - 

Noted juveniles: VJ Day. 

Interesting: VJ Day probably hasn't achieved what connection thoughts. The form of his first two races is probably better than it looked and this step up in distance will help hold a more prominent position. Could well hold each-way claims. 

2:10 Lingfield - 

Noted juveniles:  Gavota.

Interesting: The sole significantly entered juvenile trained by Roger Charlton. Won by a short-head on debut and has to defy a penalty.   

5:55 Kempton - 

Noted juveniles: Cosmopolitan Queen

Note: David Elsworth's daughter of Dubawi is has been highly tried and this looks a prime opportunity to win as long as not regressed.