Tuesday, 13 February 2018

Key Runners at Cheltenham

Mighty Bite
It's getting to that time again. You know the occasion where everyone loves to bet. The pulse races, an ear-popping roar that can only be described as the Cheltenham Festival 2018. 

The Grand National is big. Royal Ascot full of pomp and ceremony. Epsom Derby, the pinnacle of equine history. 

The National Hunt used to be the poor relation to the Flat. 

Times have changed. 

Prestbury Park beats the opposition hands down. Its betting popularity literally dwarfs the field. Bets the size of houses. Everyone wants a slice of the action. The lucky punters set foot on course while others sit watching the box. Stories of plots, bets and liabilities that frighten even the biggest bookmakers in the land. 

Are you ready for Cheltenham?

Ante-post favourites. 

Races. Big. Bad. Brash. Champions.

Names. Winners. Legends by the time the cheers die down, the mud settles and the bets are paid. Who will be your big winner? Get stuck into the greatest race meeting of them all. 

From the 13th - 16th March, it's a battle of English, Irish, the rest of the world and his wife. 

3 Big Race Favourites to Savour. 

13th March - 

3:30 Cheltenham - Champion Hurdle 

Nicky Henderson has a real powerhouse here with Buveur D'Air he's been nothing short of a winning machine. Unbeaten in his last two seasons. This French-bred gelding is owned by legendary gambler J P McManus. Will he want to step into the ring at 4/9f? The Irish supporters will be hoping Fauheen can fly.   

14th March -  

3:30 Cheltenham - Queen Mother Champion Chase

One of the talking horses for this Grade 1 contest over 2 miles. Altior hails from Nicky Henderson's stable and been simply imperious over the last three season. This ten-year-old gelding, an Irish-bred son of High Chaparral will be very likely to start odds on for this race and by all accounts will take a world of beating. Willie Mullins has Douvan entered and at fair odds may be an each-way chance if making the big day. 

16th March - 

3:30 Cheltenham - Cheltenham Gold Cup 

The jewel in the crown of this prestigious festival. A race with unequaled history. Another Nicky Henderson charge hoping to conclude a truly memorable meeting. Mighty Bite has a reputation and will be primed for this Grade 1 contest over a distance of 3m 21/2f. Other major hopes are Native River, Sizing John & Road To Respect. 

Monday, 12 February 2018

Horse racing betting tips

You hate sports betting. 

Stop! 

Whether a newbie, traditionalist or still making up your mind, don't make the mistake of neglecting Racing Tips because winners are waiting to be found.

I favour horse racing over other sports. 

In fact, it has been 30-years since I discovered two-year-old horse racing. Admittedly, it felt alien at first. Then I realised something amazing. 

I could win!

It's surprising what I have learned over three decades. To be a successful gambler isn't about being the best. The key to making your betting pay is simply knowing a little more than most. 

Many punters hate two-year-old horse racing.  

They say: 

''How can you pick a winner from a field of debutantes?''

It's like looking at a blank page. 

They are wrong.

When I look at a field of two-year-old horses making their racecourse debut, it isn't from a perspective of lack.  

These 5 strategies will allow you to unlock two-year-old winners. 

1) Know Your Horse Trainers

Guess what? The majority of horse trainers struggle to win with any horse let alone two-year-olds. Name a trainer who can make good money? Hugo Palmer. 

This trainer has plenty of fancied two-year-old debutantes. They often start short odds and win. Here's an angle to win big. Take note of Palmer's two-year-olds on their second start. Especially, those that went unfancied on debut and then backed second time out. It's a sign they are expected to win.

2) Group Entries

What are Group entries (often known as pattern race entries)? You've heard about high-profile races such as the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2). This is just one race of many races which have early declaration stages. What makes this information so helpful is that trainers are forced to show their hand by detailing the best two-year-olds in their stables. Keep a note of these horses (especially smaller trainers) because you can guarantee it will reveal classy winners.

3) Trainers Who Win at Big Odds

Most trainers with large strings of horses struggle to win at huge odds. It makes sense, because they are in the public eye and very little gets past the faces who are one step ahead. That doesn't mean you cannot find trainers who not only give a run for your money. One trainer stands out. 

Who?

Michael Dods. 

This excellent handler is no stranger to talented two-year-olds. Strangely, they often win at huge odds. Even more so when when racing on testing ground. These big-priced debutantes have excellent win and place claims. I've seen a number of huge price winners. I've seen a number win at 20-1+ while a fair percentage hit the frame.

4) Horses Dropped in Class

If it looks too good to be true. Many two-year-olds start the season with verve. They look near certain to win. However, after a string of placed efforts, they are dropped into Selling class to pick up an easy win. 

They are bad news. 

After a number of hard races two-year-olds regress. A consequence of this is that the trainer drops the horse in class. If starting favourite, look elsewhere to find the winner.

5) Stable Form

I know a few experts suggest there is no such thing as a stable out of form.  I disagree. If a stable is struggling to find winners I would leave them alone until their fortunes change. 

Thursday, 8 February 2018

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (8th February)

Karl Burke horse racing
A 6f Fillies' Novice Stakes on Standard going.

A large field.

Not a great deal of time, so I will detail one or two worthy of note. 

Mayfair Rock is interesting. I am always watching for Karl Burke's horses on their second start. This chestnut filly is a daughter of Society Rock and 35,000G purchase at two. She was relatively weak in the betting on debut at Newcastle over the minimum trip. A slow start, made it a stiff task but this Irish bred ran on well to finish third beaten just over three lengths. This step up in distance should be ideal. Not the biggest price at the time of writing, but looks the type to show up and go well. 

Others to consider. 

Probably a noteworthy jockey booking with Josephine Gordon riding Mick Channon's Marietta Robusti. If backed, could well hit the frame. 

Regina Nostra was partnered by Gordon on debut when 3/1. William Haggas' filly was very ring rusty that day and never competitive. Racing in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud, this March foal makes a quick return and should be ready. 

Porrima hails from Ben Haslam's stable. Not seen for a long time so may be a good idea to see if she is strong or weak in the market.

Mark Johnston should always be respected and Zadorra makes her return after racing over 7f on debut. Well backed on debut from 7/1 - 9/2. She was much too keen and ruined her chance. This drop in distance is most likely considered to help this three-year-old settle.

Conclusion: No great opinion about this race. Interested in seeing how the major hopes go. Mayfair Rock is the type to go well. Intriguing to note the jockey booking for Marietta Robusti. Channon is another trainer who can prime a horse for its second start and if seriously back could hold each-way claims.  




Wednesday, 7 February 2018

In-depth Look at Samcro's Winning Chances at Cheltenham's Novice Hurdle

Samcro Cheltenham Novice Hurdle Hope
The Cheltenham Festival is one of the biggest horseracing events this year, and it’s just a few months away. Now, one of the top candidates to dominate the scene is Samcro, an Irish horse that’s hopeful to ace the biggest race of his career.

The recently-held Deloitte Novice Hurdle proved to be a massive success for Samcro after smoothly acing all six victories. This comes as a surprise knowing that the gelding is still six-years-old.

In fact, he even has two more hurdle wins this year, proving that he's all set for the big event this March. If all goes well, then it'll be his first race as a Grade One level racer. But that doesn’t mean that he’s assured victory. It’s because Samcro’s more used to making much shorter trips. Cheltenham is known to have a long race track, making eventual exhaustion likely.

Meanwhile, the horse’s trainer says that Samcro’s in great shape and it makes him very happy that the gelding managed to pull of the previous races with style. He even adds that Shane McCann gets to ride the favorite every day, checking out if it’s in max health and condition.

Indeed, Samcro’s getting a lot of attention and special care, especially that he’s the best chance for victory for his team. As of now, Samcro is the top favorite for Cheltenham’s Supreme Novices Hurdle as he gets a comfortable 6/4 odds edge.

This comes to no surprise as he’s been the top gun on previous race odds as well. He also managed to pull off all his wins with style, letting his opponents trail him with a considerable gap. Meanwhile, Getabird takes the second spot with strong 2/1 odds.

As of now, there’s still no assurance that gelding can overtake the favorite. But one thing’s for sure and that Mullins trained this one right. Trailing the top two horses are If the Cap Fits and Apples Shakira who both have 6/1 odds.

It’s still unclear who’s better between the two, but it seems like Apples Shakira gets the better hand this time knowing that this bay filly is younger and has fresher legs. Nonetheless, no forecast can still assure the one who gets the upper hand.

Then there’s Next Destination trailing with 8/1 odds, followed by Mengli and Laurina who both have 10/1 odds. Duc des Genieveres and Salsaretta also are tied with 12/1 odds.

With these being said, there's no doubt that this year's Cheltenham Festival will be an exciting event to witness. Not only because the world's top horses are going to compete with each other, but because it’s going to be a close game for all participants.


Nonetheless, it would make sense for you first to check out more information. To know what to expect, click here for freebets.co.uk Cheltenham 2018 page. This gives you a lot of ways to increase your likelihood of winning, in case you’d like to bet. Let’s just hope that the horses will remain fit and healthy before the big day arrives. They most likely will.

Saturday, 27 January 2018

3:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (27th January)

Godolphin horse racing
A Maiden Stakes over 7f on Standard going.

Thirteen runners take part. 

Not a great deal of time so I will try to keep this brief. Saeed bin Suroor has been the poor relation to Charlie Appleby last season and he will be hoping this year brings greater success. 

Al Mustashar is an interesting three-year-old for Godolphin. This American-bred son of Shamardal had a big reputation before making his debut. However, he has proven a major disappointment. Odds-on when making his debut over 6f then stepping up to 7f second start when flopping big time. This bay gelding needs to show much more if connections hope to realise the potential of this horse. He had an impressive string of entries but those lofty plans at two may well be a distant memory. The option to let an apprentice ride does bring further concerns. I couldn't bet on this horse because he has proven hard work. In truth, those two efforts look too bad to be true. A horse can disappoint on both starts. The absence of over 100 days shows that there has been issues. If betting, I would rather watch, you may be better just going for the straight win. I get the feeling he will either win or disappoint.  

Friday, 26 January 2018

8:15 Kempton Racing Tips (26th January)

Jeremy Noseda - Walk In The Sun
A Novice Stakes over 7f on Standard going. 

Fourteen three-year-olds take part. A mix of lightly-raced horses with a few intriguing debutantes. 

Ghost Serge, trained by Archie Watson, is a class, experienced, opponent, competitive at Listed class, achieving a highest official rating of 99. This grey colt has the burden of carrying a win penalty which makes this task a little harder than connections may have thought. This dual winner from five starts is a good measure for some of the debutantes who come here with reputations.

Sometimes, you have to wait a long time for a horse to make its debut. That is the case for Jeremy Noseda's colt, Walk In The Sun. In the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited, this American-bred son of Street Sense cost 1,400,000 euros when purchased at the breeze-up sales at two. We had this talent on our radar early in its two-year-old season via our exceptional Group Horse (which details the best unraced and lightly raced 2yo horses in training). This April foal is definitely one of the better three-year-olds in the stable. The betting suggests that thing horses hasn't gone unnoticed. It is probably as much to do with the price tag although a string of Group entries suggest this runner has always been considered worthy of note. Ryan Moore is booked to ride. A good draw if starting on terms. I would keep an eye on the betting as the tissue price of 1/1 really doesn't offer much value. It could be the case, he drifts markedly in the betting which would bring a few concerns. I would watch the betting to get a feel for this horse. Even if fit, against experienced opposition, he wouldn't want to be slow from the stalls on this turning course. Noseda does well with fancied horses on debut, especially if strong in the market. However, I wouldn't jump in at odds-on if the money comes. 

Charlie Appleby has been a true power this juvenile season. First Contact kept on well to win on debut at odds-on. He has to shoulder a win penalty and a wide draw. A horse which is likely to improve. Could go well but will need to be pretty smart in this race.

Andrew Balding's Luna Eclipse has been fancied in the betting on both starts to date but flopped back in June when behind the talented Nyaleti. Not seen for over 200 days, Balding probably holds this colt in some regard. A good draw. Needs to improve a lot but stranger things have happened. 

Conclusion: A race worthy of your time. For lowly price money, this could well be a top-end Novice Stakes. The winners are decent horses who will not lack for experience or most probably fitness. Those factor could be enough to defy the penalties of Ghost Serge and First Contact. The latter, Godolphin horse, has more on his plate with a wide draw. You have to feel Adam Kirby will try to get to the rail. It is slightly off putting. The talking horse is Jeremy Noseda's Walk In The Sun. It is exciting to see this horse making his debut and I'm confident it is a talent going places. However, turning courses are never easy for debutantes. A slow start would bring problems, so that is a problem. For those who enjoy betting in running, they may be hoping for a few hazards and just hope class prevails. I couldn't bet at 1/1 because if he is slow from the stall you will be feeling the pressure. If drifting it may bring more hope but you have to be fearful that a big drift may relate to inexperience or needing the run. Noseda does well with short priced horses on debut but you may be wiser to watch unless the odds appeal. Luna Eclipse has a lot to prove but may hold each-way claims. On balance, I would just watch the race and enjoy it from a purist's perspective.     

Thursday, 18 January 2018

8:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (18th January)

Horse Racing Tips
A Novice Stakes for 3yo+ on Standard going. 

Seven horses take part, which is a slight downer for those who like an each-way wager with three places. 

I'm not betting in this race, but interested in seeing how Global Pass goes on his third start. This three-year-old bay gelding is well bred being by a son of Exceed And Excel out of a talented mare who won a decent amount in prize money. Global Pass cost 160,000G at the yearling sales. He was half fancied on debut at Kempton when fourth of nine. I expected a big run second start at Wolverhampton over 6f. This May foal was unsettled before the stalls and nearly escaped under them just before the off. Whether that created a problem, we can only surmise. It couldn't have been a positive. He started slowly and then a touch keen off the pace. Turning courses can be hard work for inexperienced horses given two options: run through the field or try to run wide, which is a disaster. He had a mountain to climb, but I was half hopeful he may run on to get a place. Ed Walker's finished sixth of ninth and a pretty disappointing effort by all accounts. 

I suspect there should be improvement on the first two starts and could go better than seen.

   

Wednesday, 17 January 2018

Wednesday's Tips (17th January)

The Toast Of New York
I've been a little quiet just lately. Still on holiday in US. The time difference is makes it seem as though I am always catching up. 

Just a couple of notes for the day.

12:10 Lingfield - 

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m 4f on Standard going. Worth keeping an eye on Jamie Osborne's horse Genuinely Crowded. This bay daughter of Zoffany wasn't fancied on debut and beaten into fifth place. There doesn't look too many fancied in this although just seven runners isn't ideal for each-way bettors. If priced 13/2 & less SP hold fair each-way chances. 

Friday, 5 January 2018

Five things we learned from the festive racing

Little went to script over an engrossing festive period as heavy favourites were brutally vanquished, unsung heroes emerged, legends fell and new stars were born. Many punters may have been cursing the performances of runners like Sizing John and Faugheen, but others would have been laughing all the way to the bank as several long shots landed. Here are five things we learned from an exhilarating week:
Henderson’s hero might beat everyone
One favourite that did justify his status was Might Bite, who landed the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The field was extremely competitive, featuring Betfair Chase champion Bristol De Mai, last year’s winner Thistlecrack and in-form Fox Norton. But it was a 50/1 shot that gave Might Bite his biggest fright as Double Shuffle chased him every inch of the way for a superb second place. Tea for Two was third, while the much-vaunted trio of Bristol De Mai, Thistlecrack and Fox Norton were well off the pace.

The King George VI is the second most prestigious chase in the National Hunt calendar after the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and Might Bite’s sensational victory has left him as the favourite for the forthcoming March showpiece. Check out the odds at https://www.sunbets.co.uk/ and you will see he is 7/2 and that looks very tempting as he is a superb jumper. Bristol De Mai will return to form, and you cannot write off Sizing John, but right now Might Bite is the one to beat. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an extremely strong hand heading into the business end of the season, as Might Bite’s stablemate Buveur D’Air won the Christmas Hurdle in effortless fashion and has great potential.

Respect the Road
One runner that might stop Might Bite in the Gold Cup is Road To Respect, who made a mockery of odds of 10/1 to win the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown. Last season’s Gold Cup winner, Sizing John, went into Leopardstown’s Christmas highlight as the heavy favourite, followed by much-hyped Yorkhill and Djakadam, but Road To Respect destroyed the lot of them. It was a Gigginstown House Stud 1-2-3 in the big race as 66-1 shot Balko Des Flos and 16/1 chance Outlander followed Road To Respect home in the €150,000 feature.
Disappointment for Mullins
Willie Mullins was downbeat after Yorkhill flopped in the Christmas Chase, but it was not his gravest disappointment over the festive season. Worse news came with the announcement that leading chaser Douvan would miss the entire jumps season. Douvan won 13 out of 13 for Mullins before suffering a pelvic injury in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham last March. He was expected to return to glory this season, but Mullins declared him “intermittently lame” and said he would play no part in the current campaign.

The Irish maestro then lost one of his greatest servants when multiple Grade One winner Nichols Canyon had to be put down following a fall at Leopardstown. Then the great Faugheen was mysteriously pulled up in the Ryanair Hurdle and there are concerns as to whether he might go the same way as Douvan. It was a testing time for the trainer, but Mullins has been in this game long enough to deal with setbacks, and he still earned six winners at Leopardstown and three at Limerick over Christmas. In Footpad, Min, Sharjah and Real Steel he still has a decent hand heading into the second half of the season, and Yorkhill could bounce back if he comes down in trip.

Apple’s Jade leaves rivals green with envy
Michael O’Leary’s brilliant mare dug deep to see off Supasundae in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle, a race overshadowed by the tragedy surrounding Nichols Canyon. With that great jumper sadly out of the picture and Unowhatimeanharry in poor form, Apple’s Jade could go on to dominate the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. She is vying with Sam Spinner for favouritism in the ante-post betting for that race but looks the better option if Gigginstown decides to put her forward.
O’Brien breaks into the big time
Fergal O’Brien claimed his first Grade One winner when Poetic Rhythm romped to victory in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. It drew a guttural roar and a clenched fist from O’Brien, who told reporters he was pleased to finally get the Grade One monkey off his back. It was the perfect end to a fine year for O’Brien, who is emerging as a force to be reckoned with on the National Hunt scene and is one to watch out for going forward. Poetic Rhythm, who overcame a bout of colic to edge Mulcahys Hill with a gutsy display in testing conditions in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle, looks set to continue on an upward curve, while O’Brien has further strong prospects in Colin’s Sister, Cap Soleil, Oscar Rose and Global Stage.



Thursday, 4 January 2018

3:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (4th January)

Horse racing tips
A Novice Stakes over 6f 20y on Standard going. 

Eight three-year-olds and solitary four-year-old take part. 

Jamie Osborne's Kingofmerrows has the burden of carrying ten stone, being the eldest in the field and pressed with an age penalty.  The majority of the field is lightly raced if not making their debut. 

I won't detail the field: just one horse I am considering. 

Ed Walker is a talented trainer. His horses can go well on debut but especially so when making their second start. Global Pass is a bay gelding sired by Exceed And Excel out of a twice-winning French-raced mare. A winner on debut and at Listed class. She achieved total earnings of £65,015 in nine starts. By all accounts, a fair horse on breeding. 

Global Pass cost a tidy sum at the yearling sales going for 160,000G. Racing in the familiar silks of Kir (hk) and Dr Johnny Hon this May foal was backed on debut when racing at Kempton over today's trip. Considering he was unruly before entering the stalls, it was a respectable racecourse bow. Losing by less than five lengths more should be expected on this second start. The hood is applied once more and a prime draw should be positive unless a slow starter.   

The betting is important. I would feel encouraged by a bit of money for this horse. If priced 13/2 & less SP worthy of an each-way bet.