Tuesday, 28 March 2017

Wednesday's Child is Full of...

Racing tips

The Flat turf season is closing fast. Like a horse champing at the bit. Trainers have been working their two-year-olds on the gallops. Leading handlers, rookies, wealthy owners, syndicates...race fans waiting for that crash of stalls. The Turf season begins...

As readers may be aware...there is a lull before the storm. This is a time for change. The words will still be written but our prose may not be so enlightened. For a long time, we have detailed our immense knowledge. An understanding of two-year-old racing that in my opinion is second to none. If you know better then feel welcome to introduce yourself. Becoming an expert means that you appreciate your understanding has great value. You scratch my back I'll scratch yours. 

I enjoy helping others succeed. To help people learn. What I don't enjoy are people who take without appreciation. We can all take. It is so very easy but unfulfilling, hollow and meaningless. In giving we receive. That giving is forwarded to be reciprocated. Without that what is the point? 

I can keep my information to myself. 

In my opinion, too many people take. Those words will only hurt people who take. Not only do they take, they seemingly feel as though they are doing me a favour by giving a moment of their time when others, myself, have given a thousand times more. 

In truth, I need no one. When the door is shut it is those beyond who lack, want, need. If I was a reader of this blog, information, I would stop for a moment and reflect upon the time it has taken to detail this expertise. 

Have you ever considered that point?

In the future I will be the same good person, helping, building, providing information to others. The difference is that it will be less. 

If you want more then you may wish to join Professional Gamblers.  

Sunday, 26 March 2017

I'm Embarrassed to tell you about this Bet

I quite like the odd quote or two. 

“In the desert, the only God is a well.” 

Everything is relative, hey. How much is a cup of water worth to you? 

A loaf of bread? 

I guess it depends if it's a time of famine or feast. 

It's often the case people only realise they needed, enjoyed, loved, wanted something - when it's gone. 

Who doesn't love a gamble? Horses, dogs, two flies crawling up a wall? I've gone for the craziest, obscene, disturbed bet.

I'm almost embarrassed to tell you about it... 

I know some of you will think this is truly wrong. Sick. 

Listen up. There's this really rich guy. I know it sounds ridiculous but I've become obsessed with this punt. He lives in a mansion.  Aston Martin in the drive, luxury cars in the garage, homes around the world. Basically, he is a mega-rich, Bastard. I say that as a private joke because it makes him laugh. I'm all about making people smile. Let's face it, why the hell would I want to make someone sad? I am a profusion of positivity because I truly believe in giving we receive. 

It works. 

I have met some amazing people over these last few years. People who have made my life what it should be: happy, fulfilled, which allows me to dream and follow this beautiful path... 

For many people, a gamble can be a road to destruction. 

With running a number of websites, betting, the people I know and work I am lucky in so many ways. I certainly intend to be richer in the near future. 

But back to my friend, The Rich B'  


It's a ridiculous bet. It's about being rich. Who, in time, will be the richer?

Here's the bet...

I'm gambling that I can live at least one day longer than him. 

Strange, hey. 

Not your average bet. It makes it more interesting because he is ten years younger than me. So, in a kind of chronological way, he's an odds-on favourite. 

He keeps fit, eats healthy, doesn't smoke and drinks little alcohol apart from the odd bottle of Dom Perignon Rose 1996. Well, he would, hey? 

Basically, I'm doing everything I can to outlive this beast of a man. I'm almost killing myself to outlive him. I will live longer. (That's the gamble.)

Who knows who will go first. I'm not sitting here willing his demise. There's no hitman hiding in the bushes outside his Mayfair home. It's a good, old, gentleman's handshake of a bet. I wish the ''Bastard'' Well. 

You know, if I can live just one day longer I will be the richest man on earth. At least richer than him. 

How come, you may ask? 

Becuase if you were days from death but could buy one extra day for all the money in the world.

What would you do?

So if I can live a long, healthy life...I will be a rich, rich man.

He won £10,000 at the casino. Why stop betting?

betting, Uri Geller, Casino
It's interesting to watch others gamble. To appreciate their understanding, philosophy & methodology.

Perhaps most gamblers don't even consider this point. For many, gambling is just something you do: pastime, hobby, fun, buzz... It can be any number of things. Some psychologists may even say that really people gamble because they want to lose. 

''Although, I guess some people consciously think ''who gives a f***'' 

We've all seen people betting like that. Bizarre.

Each to their own. Only a fool limits others. I could watch some random bloke in the bookmakers, bet in hand, and think ''what does he know?'' 

But what does he know? 

The truth of the matter is unless you know really know someone they may be the best or worst gambler in the world. Although it is part of the human condition to make inferences, it doesn't pay to think you know others. 

It pays for each individual to question, reflect and learn from what they do in all aspects of life including gambling. With self-reflection, we have an opportunity to learn. I would rather learn from my mistakes, even more, others. Why? 

Because they are usually less costly for us, personally, and help keep us on the right path which may lead to success. 

I went to Grosvenor casino at Great Yarmouth on Friday night. I went with my two brothers. It is a social evening rather than going to take them to the cleaners. For anyone who knows anything about gambling at fixed odds, it would be a stupid exclamation. Do you think you can beat fixed odds? The casino rake will slowly, slowly, slowly...take its profit (your loss). 

The only way you can win betting at the casino or any fixed odds is to get lucky, stick your winnings in your pocket, and go home. If you go to the casino once a month with that approach you may even win money. If you get lucky. 

I don't bet much money at the casino. I bet on the roulette. A single number and corner. If the single/corner number comes up it pays 43-1. In that sense, if I get lucky, my little bit of luck pays 43 x £5 = £215. If that coincidence comes early in the evening it's a good day. I put the money in my pocket, or at least my stake, and conclude, with a smile: ''You won't be winning anything from me tonight.'' 

There was a bloke at the casino with his wife, playing roulette. She was standing by watching proceedings. He didn't look like he had two five pences to rub together. But as I have said, it doesn't pay to limit others. For all I know, he may have been the richest man in the room. The staff knew his name, so he was clearly a regular. 

''He was betting £300 a spin. He bet wide and far across the table with £5 chips. Plenty of stacks of chips on single numbers''

I like watching people bet. Why? Because I know about betting from a professional perspective. I never bet for fun on my speciality of two-year-old horse racing. I bet because like a professional stockbroker - it's business. Every gamble in life, unless it is illegal or insider trading of some kind, is the same. Don't be fooled into thinking one gamble is different to another. The only difference is the person and their understanding, knowledge, professionalism, insight...or lack of it. The best gambler, investor, call him what you may, wins. 

I bet at the casino for ''fun'' but even then I try to play with some logic. I don't even like saying I bet for ''fun'' even at the casino but it is one of the few exceptions to my rigid rules. Principles, guidelines, foundations to your gambling knowledge are the key to success. 

''I don't like losing'' 

I definitely don't bet to lose. I can take a small loss at the casino because I do class it slightly different being more sociable (still hate saying those words). Thankfully, I am winning. Truth.

But back to this bloke... 

He wasn't doing too well, then hit on a winning streak. Number nine was hot and he got lucky a good few times. After a couple of hours, he cashed his money to £100 chips and had probably four or five grand. 

Not bad. 

However, my question, thoughts, understanding, wasn't to do with the amount of money won.  

What went through my mind was: ''How do you view your gambling?'' 

He was clearly a regular at the casino. He mentioned the day before he won £10,000. Did he regard himself as a pro gambler? You know what I'm thinking, hey? Or you should do if you have any understanding of gambling. 

Fixed odds. It is the equivalent of betting at a table and the banker has horns sticking out of his head, a ruddy complexion, and the room feels rather warm. In fact, you just placed a bet against the devil himself. No f****** wonder he's smiling. 

Fix odds. How can you win long term? Infrequent bets. Perhaps. Cheating. You can win cheating. You need that in your armoury of skills (especially at the casino). 

''But the security is tighter than Uri Geller's underpants''

You won't get out the door with a bent spoon from the restaurant. 

Good luck to all gamblers. I love to see a winner. Only a loser wants to see someone lose! But if you bet too regular at the casino I would fear that one evening that devil will steal what once looked to be a burgeoning purse. 

When betting it pays to stop and consider whether your bet is based on skill. 

I mean you wouldn't want to play chess against a world champion unless you knew better or fancied you had the odds in your favour? Skill is an asset which you can use to win. Fixed odds like to wave their magic wand with the illusion that you can beat the book.It is the hardest, strongest, most confident, ruthless opponent you will ever meet.   

Long term you will lose.

Saturday, 25 March 2017

Grand National Tips (8th April)

With the Cheltenham Festival over for another year, all the attention now in National Hunt racing turns to the Grand National meeting, with the feature race being the world’s most famous steeplechase and the only contest to take place over the distance of 4m4f.
Here is a look at three horses you should consider for the 2017 running of the Grand National.

Vieux Lion Rouge arguably has the best form over the bigger fences than any of his 39 rivals for the race this year. He made his debut over the Grand National fences in the 2016 contest, where despite going off as a 66/1 outsider in the betting, he was up with the pace for a large part of the trip before weakening in the closing stages to finish a respectable sixth place. That experience was clearly put into good use during the Becher Handicap Chase last December as he came out on top that day by a short-head following a battle with Highland Lodge at Aintree.
David Pipe’s runner is now up to a career-high official mark on the back of success in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, where he was able to prevail by over three lengths ahead of Blacklion in the 3m4f contest.
The eight-year-old will be ridden by Tom Scudamore, who is one of the leading national jockeys in the sport today. It is trained by Pipe, who is bidding for his second Grand National success after Comply or Die in 2008. He also has the guidance of his father Martin, who won the race in 1994 with Minnehoma. As you can see on Oddchecker, Vieux Lion Rouge is a top price of 10/1 to win the race next month and that looks generous at this stage as he is clearly the one they all have to beat.
The Last Samuri is also having his second shot at the Grand National this year, as in 2016 he finished second behind Rule The World. Kim Bailey’s runner clearly handled the test of the race well but just found one horse better than him on the day.
As you would expect, the nine-year-old will need to carry more on his back this time around as he has gone up the ratings since his run in 2016. His form this season has been nothing special; however, he will have been trained to peak for Aintree again. His best run was actually over the Grand National fences in the Becher Chase, where he was only a length behind Vieux Lion Rouge at the finish.
Some horses, no matter how good they are, just don’t take to the Grand National course. That can’t be said about The Last Samuri. If you back the chaser, you know you will get a good run for your money at the very least. At 16/1 in the betting for this year’s race, he looks a cracking each-way bet to get into the frame once again.
The Grand National is the one race each year where you should not be afraid to back an outsider. Mon Mome won at odds of 100/1 in 2009, while in each of the last four runnings, the winner’s starting price has been 25/1 or bigger. The horse which stands out at the larger prices in the latest betting is Raz De Maree, who is 50/1.
Photo: Sporting Life, Twitter. Aintree Racecourse, Twitter

Friday, 24 March 2017

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (24th March) MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES (Class 6) (3-5yo) Winner £2,588 5 runners 5f Standard ATR

racing tips
A more prosaic style in future. If you are serious about betting with insight then take note of this offer because when the places have gone... 

Take a look at this page and email me at Professional Gamblers.  

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f on Standard going. Just the five runners: all three-year-olds bar one aged five. 

The only debutante is David Baron's Melonade.  

A few of these are relatively fancied in the betting apart from Six Of The Best who is the rag at 66/1. 

One horse which stands out from the crown is James Tate's Royal Request. This bay filly is a daughter of Royal Applause who was withdrawn from the sales as a yearling. The mare raced up to Listed class and had an official rating of 104. Saeed Manana does well with his horses, often purchased at cheap prices, as an owner who doesn't need to count his pennies. 

Royal Request ran over 6f on debut at this grade. She lost by a head at odds of 3/1. A slow start didn't help her cause and she will need to be fit and primed for this minimum trip.

Looks a tough nut to crack. 

Thursday, 23 March 2017

5:50 Chelmsford Racing Tips (23rd March) Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+)

racing tips and casino action
Interesting week so far. I'm going to Great Yarmouth casino this Friday evening. It should be fun. I know a good number of our readers enjoy betting online so take a look at Online-Casino.CA for more entertainment. It certainly beats travelling on the road and they have some great bonuses.   

A Maiden Stakes over 5f on Standard going. 

Six horses take part: one four-year-old gelding and five horses aged three. All bar one have racecourse experience. 

Derek Shaw fields the only debutante Tartufo Classico. This son of Paco Boy was bred by Lyndsey Shaw. The dam, Tartatartufata, was an out and out sprinter who raced for many years and achieved a highest official rating of 89. This bay gelding is still in the ownership of the breeder. Shaw doesn't, usually, have his debates fired up and chomping at the bit. It isn't beyond the realms but unlikely. In addition, an age penalty makes life harder because the three-year-olds seem to take advantage of this system. To be fair, this isn't a badly bred horse so connections should see an able sprinter in time. 

The twice-raced Kowaiyess hails from a mighty owner in Hamdan Al Maktoum. Owen Burrows knows his horses. This bay gelding is a son of Exceed And Excel out of a dual-winning mare who raced at Group class. She had a highest official rating of 107. Kowaiyess was relatively fancied on debut when finishing third at odds of 7-1. It wasn't the strongest maiden but he was slowly into stride before running on strongly in the closing stages but never going to catch the leading pair. He ran well the second start when held by a short head. Looks a fine chance at short odds. 

Rae Guest is a class trainer. I particularly like the way he places his juveniles/debutantes because it shows he knows exactly what they can achieve. Many trainers seem wholly poor at making the most of winning opportunities. Midnightly was fancied to go well on debut. To be fair, it didn't look the strongest of races. Mercers won in professional style, making the most of her experience. It was telling she was made favourite that day and detailed a weakness in the opposition. Midnightly is a 50,000G foal, bought in by the vendor. She should improve for that debut. 

Three C's has been kept busy by David Dennis. This bay gelding has raced five times for Favourites Racing Ltd. Connections have a consistent horse, if not a star, who has gone well a number fo times. They must have been left deflated at Brighton when disappointing at odds of 4/11. Clearly, something was amiss that day and not been seen for two hundred and thirty-one days.This son of Kodiac has an official rating of 77 which isn't bad for maidens this time of year. 

Tooti Fruitti comes from a gambling stable so worth noting in the betting if you see some bloke holding a big purse, smoking an over-sized cigar. This bay filly raced earlier this month when fading in the closing stages to finish sixth of nine. Beaten a long way but may be capable of better if coping with this drop to the minimum distance. 

Vicky Park is trained by George Margarson. She hasn't achieved a great deal in two starts. This daughter of Compton Place is out of a sprinter mare, Sonko, who readers may remember. A bonny type who won six times in her career. Owned and bred by J A Khan, the apprentice takes off a handy 7lb. She was relatively fancied on debut so there is a chance she may have disappointed first and second start. On balance, that is unlikely but stranger things have happened. If seriously backed it would bring more confidence. 

Conclusion:  An interesting race in ways. It looks out of the two favourites: Kowaiyess and Midnightly. The former has ability while the latter needs to improve after that promising debut. At the prices, I'm not sure which I would favour. Burrow's charge has to come off a long absence so needs to be fit and ready. Three C's would have a chance at best but another who has something to prove after beaten favourite at big odds on. 

A watching brief. 

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

6:15 Kempton Racing Tips (22nd March) MAIDEN STAKES (Class 5) (3yo+) Winner £2,911 14 runners 1m Standard RUK

Group Horse 2YO Racing Tips
A Maiden Stakes over 1m on Standard going. Fourteen runners for this 3yo+ contest. I'm certainly not writing about all of these. 

At the time of writing, five horses are fancied in the betting. In fact, all these are priced 7/1 & less. A couple of older horses are fancied. 

I will simply detail the three-year-olds. 

Entangling is of interest. I had my eye on this bay gelding when making his debut for Chris Wall. This son of Fastnet Rock is owned by Ben CM Wong who isn't afraid of putting his hand in his pocket. That was the case with this January foal who cost 380,000E when purchased as a yearling. By all accounts, this may be the most expensive horse Wall has ever trained. I always root for the smaller trainers to get a decent horse so I was a touch bemused/disappointed when Entangling vacated the stalls as if he was sauntering around the yard at the speed of a stable lad's broom. 

He was very well supported on debut over course and distance. Backers must have been pretty peeved at the lacklustre response. It's a classic case for many debutantes that winning often takes time. It was simply a case of being inexperienced. Turning courses are never the easiest place to start. To be honest, he wouldn't have been any better on a straight course for those first two furlongs. 

Entangling simply didn't understand what he was meant to do!

I often quote that sometimes the worse a horse looks on debut the better it is. After such a tardy start it wasn't a bad performance. He ran on in the closing stages to be beaten just over seven lengths.       

I'm sure connections expected more that day and probably left Sunbury with mixed emotions. It has been just over two weeks since that introduction and you can guarantee Wall has been working hard to blow those cobwebs away. Ted Durcan takes the ride. A low draw is a positive. 

Today should see a fitter and more experienced horse. There is always a fear that a slow starter on debut may still be a touch ring rusty on its second start. On balance, I would think that is unlikely but it is an aspect you need to consider. It is a positive to see Entangling make his return holding firm in the betting. That is a significant factor worthy of note. From a statistical point of view the stable hold a good strike rate with horses fancied on their second start. In truth, I would rather consider this three-year-old as an each-way bet than a straight win. 

The other three-year-olds are worthy of interest and could well be a force to be reckoned. 

Ed Walker's Sabador hasn't been seen since last October. This grey gelding, a son of Kendargent, was relatively fancied that day but wasn't helped by a slow start. He was a relatively cheap 2yo purchase at 35,000E. He is well owned by P K Sui. I would keep an eye on the betting with this horse. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would expect a big run. If weak, best watched. 

Paul Cole fields another three-year-old named Wonderfillo. I like Cole with his horses on their second start. It is interesting to note this bay colt was formerly trained by John Gosden and moved stables before his racecourse bow. This son of Teofilo made his debut over course and distance earlier this month. The starting price suggested he was in need of the run. Running wide, trouble in running, but staying on strongly gave a positive impression. A wide draw is far from ideal. If priced 13/2 & less SP hold fair each-way claims. The draw will most likely add a point or two to the price. 

Conclusion: A big field. I've stuck with the three-year-olds because they have fair claims. Entangling is interesting. A costly buy. He will improve a good deal for that first start but it pays to be careful with relatively short priced horses with a slight question mark. On potential, I wouldn't knock this horse. Being practical, there is a slight concern he could be tardy from the stalls. He may well be fine but it is a point worth noting. Wall has a good strike rate with his fancied horses on their second start. However, they are more likely to be placed than win. In that sense, I would rather bet on this horse at each-way prices. Looks a better option for an each-way double or treble. The betting for Sadabor and Wonderfillo needs to be assessed because this information will help bring some clarity to the chance of Entangling. This pair may well make stronger bets, especially if priced at each-way odds. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would take note. If both are outside this price guide it would give additional confidence to the favourite. However, if either or both are in the best betting guide I can see them going well. Let the betting settle. Whatever the circumstance on these three horses, I would be looking to bet each-way rather than straight win. 

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

3:15 Southwell Racing Tips (21st March) Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3-5yo)

Sky Equine - Racing Tips
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 1m on Standard going.

Six runners: one four-year-old with the others aged three. Four horses have race experience. 

Billy's Connoisseur is the only four-year-old. Tim Easterby's bay gelding has done little in two starts and has to contend with a hefty age penalty which makes his task difficult, to say the least. Looks better suited when gaining a handicap mark. 

Twice-raced Melo Magic has finished plum last on both starts and another who will need a lowly mark to taste success. Will be the rank outsider for obvious reasons. 

Scott Dixon hasn't been flying with his juveniles and I doubt he has too much strength in the three-year-old division. This stable likes a gamble. That is the best sign of interest for debutante Lakeski. This bay daughter of Sir Percy cost just 5,000G when purchased at the yearling sales. 

As readers will know, I'm a big fan of Karl Burke. Testbourne is making his debut in the ownership of Tim Dykes. This Irish-bred gelding is a son of Big Bad Bob and a relatively cheap yearling purchase at 18,000G. By the nature of these races, it is unlikely any will cost a small fortune but that isn't always the case.

The betting suggests this is one of three horses to have any real hope of winning. Burke can ready a debutante. In fact, they feature fair win and place statistics when priced in single figures. However, it such a limited race there is a very good chance the betting for this horse may be skewed. That doesn't mean he cannot win or isn't a talent. It simply means if this March foal is limited he is likely to still feature at the forefront of the betting. It makes this gelding difficult to assess. 

The bookmakers will try and match the two favourite in hope of both being beaten. That looks unlikely unless Testbourne has ability and fired-up. 

Do you go for an experienced horse who hasn't managed to win or the lightly-raced who will be primed for a big run?

Magical Forest looked a winner waiting to happen after a debut which could have seen her victorious if not a touch unlucky. Eight runs later and still no win. Marco Botti and punters who have backed this daughter of Casamento must be showing grey hair after finishing runner-up on four occasions and many place efforts. This £22,000 yearling purchase has raced from 5f - 1m 1 1/2f. Her latest efforts saw her outclassed when racing at Meydan including a Group 3 contest. This is a marked drop in class. She has ability and should be competitive here. In fairness, there may be just one major opponent. There is a fear with a horse who loses time after time that they will eternally make hard work of winning. It is a negative in ways because so often this type of horse continues to lose. 

Ed Vaughan is a capable trainer. His horses often win on their second start. Whosyourhousemate was priced 50-1 on debut giving the impression this son of Bahamian Bounty needed the run. He looked to have little chance after a slow start and out the back for the most part before staying on to finish third. The first and second are both rated about 80. There is always a concern that a horse running so far from off the pace may be flattered. It probably isn't anything to be concerned about but it can happen. The odds on debut may indicate this horse needed the run or, perhaps, he hadn't shown a great deal of ability at home. These factors need to be considered when tempted to bet at short odds. This 32,000G yearling purchase hasn't been seen for a couple of months although he was meant to race a few weeks back but withdrawn. That was a decent effort based on his finishing position but he was very much an unconventional third after such a tardy start. The trainer has decent stats for this horse.

Conclusion: Basically this looks a two-horse race. Testbourne may have something to say about that. The betting is likely to suggest a big run from this debutante but with such a weak race the betting could be slightly misleading. It may be a worry if drifting markedly in the betting. It would be a positive if strongly backed. This race type is usually won by an experienced horse. The two favourites have shown ability but also indifference. Magical Forest has enough ability to win a race of this nature. However, she seems to either bump into better or disappointing. It must say something that Botti sent her to Meydan to contest a Group race. If you are betting on guaranteed form this horse has to be the selection. The negative is that she has had nine attempted and still waiting. Whosyourhousemate wasn't fancied on debut and ran a strange race. Was he a huge price because he needed the run or hadn't he shown much ability at home? If that third place came as a surprise to connections he could well drift markedly in the betting which may indicate he was flattered. It is possible. That kind of question mark is enough to keep me from betting at restricted odds. You may gain much bigger odds in running if slow from the stalls. Whichever favourite I backed, I would be fearful of the other. Added to the mix, the possibility that Testbourne could be a thorn in their side. 

I would have to take a watching brief.   

Monday, 20 March 2017

3:30 Kempton Racing Tips (20th March) MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (Class 5) (3yo) Winner £2,911 9 runners 7f Standard RUK

Racing Tips From Sky Equine
A Fillies' Maiden Stakes over 7f on Standard going.  

Nine three-year-olds take part, four with race experience. A number of high-ranking trainers in what looks a competitive affair. 

Double Spin hasn't been seen for two hundred and sixty-five days. This American-bred daughter of Hard Spun is trained by John Gosden in the ownership of Newsells Park Stud. She made her debut over course and distance back in June last year when showing promise in fourth place, beaten just over two lengths. This bay filly was backed to 3-1 but dwelt before making rapid progress to lead, then headed when impeded in the closing stage, most likely tiring due to pulling too hard. If fit and primed, should go well. 

David Simcock fields From A Distance who was fancied to go well on debut at Chelmsford over 6f but disappointed. The betting is key here. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a much-improved performance. If weak in the market best watched. 

Garnetta & Irish Sky are best watched unless seriously backed.   

Clive Cox can hit the ground running with his debutantes. Global Alexander is a daughter of Dark Angel for owner Noel O'Callaghan. An expensive yearling purchase at 160,000E. Another horse who holds claims if the betting speaks in her favour. If priced 13/2 & less SP could hit the frame. If even shorter would be significant.

I have been following Preobrajenska, who was trained by Michael Bell but now handled by William Jarvis. This daughter of Paco Boy was sent to the sales in February but withdrawn. Interesting why she has changed stables. Not sure if it is a positive or negative but may just sway to the later. I have little doubt this bay filly went well on the gallops before debut and rated as a fair juvenile. Pretty sure I had a bet on her second start when a short head loser. Fancied in the betting on all starts to date confirmed a horse of some ability. She disappointed at Chelmsford, probably going too fast and in need of the run. A similarly disappointing effort was displayed at Wolverhampton when dropping back to 6f. Those last two efforts bring concerns and may indicate a horse in regression. It's possible a change of scene and a new training regime may ignite the fire. I would take a watching brief just to re-assess. 

Jeremy Noseda doesn't have too many debutantes over the winter months so Reckless Woman catches the eye. This daughter of Helmet is owned by Budget Stable and cost 50,000G at the yearling sales. The betting is key. If priced 8/1 & less is worthy of respect. If weak in the betting best watched.

Jamie Osborne has been doing well these last few weeks. Secret Salvage ran well on debut at odds of 33-1. She was fancied to go well second start but put in her place over 1m. This daughter of Roderic O'Connor led and it might be the case the trip was just a little too far. I imagine owners The Bo Derek 10 Partnership gave her a hard-pressed six with the hope of more next time. She may need her hair braided to bring a bit of vigour. Definitely, something to prove after that effort but not without hope if appreciating this lesser trip. 

Owners Clipper Logistic have debutante Western Safari making her first start with Richard Hannon. The dam was a Group 3 winner, which gives hope and fancied in the betting at the time of writing. I always find Hannon a difficult trainer to assess on debut. 

Conclusion: Quite a large field. Not the easiest of contests to assess with a number of high-profile trainers. Definitely, let the betting settle before jumping in unless you are pre-empting a gamble. Double Spin has bold claims but whether you will find value at short odds is a matter of opinion. If From A Distance, Global Alexander & Reckless Woman are in their best betting guides I would be careful with the favourite. If they are fancied in the betting all feature respectable each-way claims. I'd watch Preobrajenska after two disappointments and a stable change. Secret Salvage may show more over this shorter trip. Difficult to assess Western Safari but if very well backed could figure. At the time of writing, I will have to take a watching brief. 

That opinion may change nearer to the race start. 

Saturday, 18 March 2017

7:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (18th March) MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo)

Racing Tips
A Maiden Stakes over 1m 141y on Standard going.

Seven three-year-olds: five colts, two fillies, one of those a debutante. 

Micheal Appleby's *Channel Packet finished second from last on debut when priced 20-1. This step up in distance is likely to help. Today's huge odds suggests others are higher in the pecking order.

Shaun Harris doesn't have a wealth of talents but a capable trainer. *Nonnie And Norny is racing for the first time. This bay daughter of Frozen didn't make the reserve when going through the sales with a price tag of £5000. Priced at 100-1, this bay has little chance unless a major surprise.

The other five contestants are all relatively fancied. 

Dalavida is owned by The Black Gold Partnership and twice raced. This French-bred daughter of Kendargent was sold for 68,000G at the yearling sales. This grey caught my attention on debut when outpointed by a couple of talents when looking in need of a greater test of stamina and experience. I was particularly interested in her second start but there was a reason why that hope waned. Stepping up to 1m 2f looked the part and throughout the race, although off the pace, travelled well giving some hope that this February foal may run on. The first two had no worries of a close encounter of the third kind. She looked inexperienced, clumsy and pretty hard ridden. In fairness, she ran on with spirit but didn't really appreciate the task at hand if not a touch lazy. That experience will be to her advantage but whether this slight drop in distance is a positive only time will tell. It may be negative. Dalavida is the type of horse to progress with racing.

Quite interested in Magic Pass. Andrew Balding is a class trainer and this chestnut son of Raven's Pass is a homebred for George Strawbridge. This March foal was backed on debut over course and distance when sixth. It may be the case he disappointed that day and connections expected better. It was a fair debut without setting the world alight. The hood was applied first start which may indicate he is a touch nervy or lazy. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a much better performance and if priced in single figures could hold each-way claims. 

Another trainer who I have a lot of faith is Ed Dunlop. Weloof is a son of Redoute's Choice who runs in the familiar silks of Abdullah Saeed Al Naboodah. He ran back in October when racing over one mile at Newbury. The 16-1 odds suggested he wasn't expected to win but connections probably didn't expect to finish last. With plenty of time on the sidelines, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a different horse today. If priced 13/2 & less SP is worthy of respect.

The two favourites: Sufi & Everything For You.

Sufi is owned and bred by Lady Bamford. The chestnut son of Pivotal is out of a Galileo mare. He was sent through the sales ring at two but withdrawn. Richard Hannon's charge wasn't fancied on debut over 7f behind a much-hyped juvenile in Via Serendipity (who didn't achieve what Hugo palmer expected in those early starts). Sufi ran well to finish fourth. He was expected to make an impact second start when made 9/4J favourite at Chelmsford over one mile. Both races were Plus 10 which indicated some class and he ran well, staying on, behind Hugo Palmer's Omeras. Definitely here with a fighting chance.

Kevin Ryan is a significant trainer who has been fielding a few expensive buys of late. Everything For You is owned by T A Rahman who had an expensive debut winner with Eyes On Asha who cost 775,000E. Everything For You is a son of Pivotal and 75,000G yearling purchase. He wasn't best fancied when 12-1 racing over 7f at Newbury last October. The betting indicates a live chance although I do find a number of the Ryan fancies lean on value. 

Conclusion: A shame this is seven runners and two places for each-way backer. It looks an open heat. Five horses may have claims. The three favourites haven't been seen for a number of months so they need to be fit and ready. Any major drifts in the market may detail they need the run. Sufi ran well last time out. I respect this horse's chance but not sure if I would jump in at short odds. Everything For You needs to improve. This step up in distance will help and holds claims on a statistical front. Weloof achieved little on debut. If short priced it could well be significant. If priced bigger than 13/2 SP I would take a watching brief. Dalavida may not appreciate this drop in distance but may be a little better than she looks. This filly was given a hard race because I suspect connections thought she would do much better at Chelmsford. There was good money for her on the exchanges that day backed from 30-1. This three-year-old looked inexperienced if not lazy. To add to the mix I am interested in Magic Pass. He could well hold each-way claims. I would let the betting settle before making a decision as it may help eliminate one or two contenders.  

* NR - Channel Packet, Nonny And Norny