Wednesday 28 December 2016

1:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th Dec) 32RED.COM EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div II) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Just getting back into the swing of things over this Christmas period. Division II. A Maiden Stakes over 7f 1y on Standard going.

David Elsworth is a superb trainer. Interesting to consider the chances of Tisbutadream. This chestnut daughter of Dream Ahead cost 100,00G when purchased by Suzanne Roberts at the breeze-up sales. This March foal had clearly been showing plenty of ability on the gallops but those hopes of winning on debut were quickly snuffed out with a dire performance on soft ground at Newmarket. Starting over 6f, she finished second from last, beaten over seventeen lengths. About five months past before Tisbutadream made her return at Kempton on the all-weather. Timmy Murphy took the reins over six furlongs and she was fancied in the betting at odds of 5-1. I can tell you know, there was something very significant about the betting that day. In fact, I was very confident she would be placed and a chance of winning. 

However, I knew the favourite, Endless Charm, was held in very high regard by Charlie Appleby. Godolphin's charge was making debut so there is always a chance on a turning course that there may be a weakness due to inexperience. To be honest, I was clutching at straws and Endless Charm made all and eased near the line. 

Tisbutadream wasn't disgraced finishing second to a class juvenile. Elsworth went to Kempton with bold claims but one thing we learned that day is his thoroughbred is a better prospect over 7f. 

Tisbutadream will be primed to go well and I expect her to finish with zeal. 

The major dangers. 

Intrigued to see Enfolding. This bay gelding is a son of Fastnet Rock, trained by James Fanshawe in the ownership of B en CM Wong. This 110,000G yearling purchase was bought by Suzanne Roberts. 

He ran well on debut but needed the race. I was ready to bet on his second start but there was a reason I can't detail why I didn't. There was a strong first and second favourite that day and it is most likely the reason why Enfolding went off 10-1. It had been a long spell between runs and after a slow start he was far too keen. This was due to temperament and being a little too fresh. Temperament is always a concern with any horse. It may be the case he puts that keenness behind him but there is a worry it has become second nature. If that is true winning over this extended trip will be very unlikely. 

Still, an interesting juvenile who is worthy of respect. 

Conclusion: Tisbutadream may have fair opposition. I would rather bet on this filly at each-way odds than a straight win. That looks very unlikely. Perhaps better to view as a selection for an each-way double.