Monday 16 January 2017

2:20 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (16th Jan) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 1f103y on Standard going. 

Ten three-year-olds take part, eight with racecourse experience. 

I will detail the main contenders in a succinct manner as possible. This usually means I set sail on the next volume of War & Peace. 

Draw Swords is trained by John Gosden for K Abdullah. This son of Dansili has a liking for seconds and thirds being placed on all five starts to date. To be fair, this colt has gone close on at least a couple of occasions. The tongue tie is applied for the first time. This favourite has decent claims although I'm always fearful of a horse that keeps going close but falling short. 

Another horse who has a similar profile is Pete So High, trained by Richard Hannon. This bay gelding is a son of High Chapparral. He has progressed since his debut. A trio of recent defeats has all been by less than three lengths. Connections must be hoping this step up in distance proves fruitful. He seems a versatile horse who can be held up or lead. This extra yardage may inspire a bold show. 

Hermeneutics has been relatively fancied on both starts. This American-bred son of Scat Daddy cost 270,000G when purchased at the breeze-up sales, which is a huge sum of money. This gelding has flashed glimmers of ability. I'm pretty sure connections have expected much better and perhaps this step up in distance will prove positive. If betting, it would be a shot in the dark, but I'd take note of the market. If the money comes, you may be wise to follow. 

Jamie Osborne has been in flying form of late. Born To Reason is a son of Born To Sea and races in the silks of the trainer. I would take a watching brief unless seriously backed and even then I would be careful. 

Their other runner is worth noting. Brother In Arms has one race under his belt when relatively fancied in the betting but finished seventh. He cost £80,000 when purchased at the breeze-up sales and in the familiar silks of Michael Buckley. This April foal was always outpaced and may well appreciate this step up in distance. The betting is key. If backed to second or third favourite, I'd be tempted to lump on the place. 

The most interesting debutante is Hugo Palmer's Bush House. Ridden by the talented Josephine Gordon, this bay gelding is a son of Canford Cliffs. An expensive yearling purchase at £150,000. It may be a slight concern to see the blinkers applied for this first start although I generally consider the trainer knows best. The betting is important. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would anticipate a big run. If weak in the betting, it may be prudent to watch.    

Costa Percy would need to be substantially backed to figure.    

Major Tom, Dream Magic & Born Legend are best watched.  

Conclusion: I can't say I'm raving about this race. The two favourites should run there about although they seem to keep losing. Bush House could be the punter's choice but blinkers are a touch concerning. If priced 13/2 & less SP I would be more confident. Brother In Arms is worth noting in the betting. If seriously backed, I would be interested especially betting on the place. Hermeneutics is doing a good job of disguising his ability [if he has any] but there may be some glimmer of hope if backed. This son of Scat Daddy was a costly purchase and that usually details some aspect of hope. Let the betting settle before jumping in with both feet. Unless I feel inspired, I will be keeping my money for another day. 

How to Win at Gambling by Knowing your Niche