Thursday 6 April 2017

2:30 Southwell Racing Tips (6th April) EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Stakes. Six two-year-old debutantes take part over 5f on Standard going. Three colts and three fillies battle this out. 

A mix of early-season trainers. 

Juveniles making their racecourse bow can be tricky to assess, especially regarding inexperience. A slow start over the minimum trip can make disappointing viewing if you've placed a bet. 

Something has to win. 

David Evan is a tricky trainer to assess. He is a cunning soul who, in my opinion, does his very best to manipulate the betting with varied jockey bookings, changing jockeys at the last moment, late non-runners etc. I don't blame him at all. A new version of Jack Berry with a seemingly moody attitude. I've never had the pleasure of talking to him but make no mistake he is a class trainer. 

He has started this season on a very positive note with a runner-up in both of divisions of the Brocklesby Stakes. They will make a good measure for the rest of the string. A very important aspect of winning early doors.  

His two-year-olds come thick and fast. The trick is working out which have the ability and those that do not. 

The betting would suggest *Give Em A Clump and Kheleyf's Girl are not fancied. The former cost 10,000E while the later just a grand. The betting will be a fair guide. If either are seriously backed, it would bring greater hope.

Bill Turner is a man associated with early, speedy two-year-olds. His filly, Hellovaqueen, ran well enough in the Brocklesby when finishing fourth. He usually sends his best juvenile to compete in the Brocklesby

Devil Or Angel is owned by his loyal patron E A Brook. This son of Assertive was a relatively cheap yearling purchase at just £11,000. Turner has a reputation of sending out debut winners but his strike rate doesn't really add to that assumption. His juveniles don't lack for fitness, some are just very slow, but the betting will be the best guide. If seriously backed could go well. If weak in the betting, I'd take a watching brief. Ryan While takes off a valuable 5lb. 

Middleham Park Racing make this a touch tricky with a couple of fancies in the market. Glen Valley is trained by Keith Dalgleish. He had one of the major fancies in the Brocklesby, Rocket Man Dan, who looked as though he went a stride too fast before, literally, falling into a hole. Glen Valley is an Irish-bred daughter of Society Rock and £10,000 yearling. She wears the second colours although you can never take these things as concrete. The betting gives this horse a chance at 6/1. However, if drifting markedly it would ring alarm bells. 

Mark Johnston sends out his first juvenile of the season. He had an interesting horse lined up for the Brocklesby but that was withdrawn. With his new training regime, Ventura Knight is one for the shortlist. The stable were on fire last season winning just about every race and that success will ring long in the ears of punters and bookmakers alike. There is always a worry that this Irish-bred son of Casamento may be under priced. This March foal is already two and cost £40,000 at the yearling sales. I often describe Johnston's debutantes as easy winners or poor losers. That is often the score. A wide birth in stall 1 isn't ideal as debutantes often run into space. It is a slight concern. With the stable's approach to the early season similar to a farmer cutting the harvest corn, I'd expect a bold show.   

Richard Fahey is one of the best trainers of two-year-old debutantes. In fact, he is one of the very best from a statistical point of view. He had a couple of fancied runners in the Brocklesby. Requinto Dawn was pretty weak in the betting but won well without being pressed. A tidy performance. 

Jasi is represented today. This bay colt is a son of Kodiac out of an unraced dam. He cost £50,000 in the ownership of Sheikh Abdullah Almalek Alsabah. He has owned a number of talented horses including Areen who was a narrow loser in the Windsor Castle Stakes Listed Race at Royal Ascot in 2015.  

I won't be giving too many tips on this page and most days posts will be kept to a minimum. If you are interested in the value of selective racing tips or knowing the best-unraced two-year-olds in training then you can gain access to both by joining our new service Rich Lifestyles. Want to know more? The take a look at our promotional page. We give a 30-day money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. 

* NR - Give Em A Clump