In truth it could be many things. Most people would say: a good horse. That's is a positive starting point. It's a strange happening, but so often, when a talented juvenile should win by the law of odds, another star turn spoils the party. It just seems to happen. So, in my opinion, what makes a good bet?
It is definitely circumstance!
A race needs to have the right look, shape, call it what you may.
Looking at the 6:15 Windsor (Monday)
Windsor has a lot of talented two-year-olds start their career with the sound of the Thames in their ears.
The Thorn Plant Hire EBF Novices Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 4) sees 12 juveniles making the grade on good going.
I often let the betting settle on these type of races just in case one or two horses may be identified or ignored by market forces. They only help to degree. Taking a quick review of the race, it may be out of a handful of two-year-olds.
Queen Of Bermuda has to shoulder a win penalty and take on number of colts. She will need to be a smart filly to do that.
Paul Cole fields Duke Of Hazzard in the familiar silks of Mrs Fitri Hay. This 130,000 euro purchase has plenty of size about if although always slightly outpaced at York on debut, when pestered by his jockey all the way to the line. It was a fair effort in what looked to be a decent race. There isn't too many weak races at the Navesmire. This horse has respectable win and placed claims if priced 13/2 & less SP.
Charlie Appleby has a couple in the shape of Fly The Nest and Leading Spirit.
The former has been fancied in the betting on both starts to date. This son of Kodiac cost 200,000 euros. He ran well enough on debut but favourite backers were left scratching their heads when 7th at Newbury. The 8/11f was slightly hampered and eased in the closing stages but had no reply to the first and second. Time may tell he ran his race and beaten fair and square. In general, the stable's juveniles have been disappointing.
Clive Cox has been firing in the winners and Mykindofsunshine was one place ahead of Fly The Next, when making his debut. There doesn't look that much between the pair although Cox's charge may improve for the run.
The other horse owned by Godolphin is Leading Spirit. This son of Exceed And Excel made his debut in a hot maiden over 6f at Yarmouth. The winner, Legends Of War, trained by John Gosden, cost almost £1000,000, while the runner-up was a hefty purchase in the care of Roger Varian. I was left with the impression a number of trainers thought they had a hope that day. John Gosden and Qatar Racing Ltd, left with a smile on their million pound boat race. Leading Spirit is a good-looking colt and given far from a hard time. The form is still untested which brings some aspect of the unknown. Interesting to see how he fares over this drop back to the minimum trip.
Conclusion: Circumstance. A few of these look fair juveniles and it is difficult to pick between the form lines at this time of year. I'm interested in watching this race.