Thursday 6 December 2018

How Do You Make A Tip Selection?

Interesting story. 

A friend asked one of his mates: ''How do you pick a horse to bet?''

He replied: ''Like everyone else!.''

For most people, this may sound like a fair answer. It's what someone would probably say in reply. Perhaps if they had thought about how they actually make a selection by writing down their approach, they may be surprised how much work goes into this process. Conversely, they may not be any great process at all. 

''I like the sound of that horse's name!''

In truth, I think such a reply ''Like everyone else...'' is quite humorous in ways if not a little naive. I wouldn't be too critical about it, because it was a quick answer to a quick question. However, if they sat down for thirty minutes and still gave the same answer, I would be more critical in the sense that I would question whether such a perception can help make their betting pay. This self-assessment can help people learn.

Everyone has a different style of betting and making their tip selection(s). It could be as unique as your fingerprint. You have your way which makes you different. There isn't any right or wrong. It is just how you work and process information.     

However, how each person actually comes about making a selection can vary to the extreme. If I wrote down each stage of my process (and the understanding behind each) it would equate to a mammoth amount of data. From my perspective, this isn't observed because it is implicit. The difference between a successful gambler and one who fails can be understood from this very process. Not to say that a simplistic approach cannot yield winners. I know a number of significant trainer statistics which I can almost guarantee year in year out will result in a nice points profit. It is as simple as noting a horse/trainer at a given point in time. I won't say any more than that because it's not in my interests to detail the facts. 

If you want to understand your procedure, then write down each thought as you think. It's not easy to be objective and detail your stream of consciousness but it can be revealing. In some respects, your knowledge of horse racing is like someone revising for a test. If your knowledge is thin, you may well struggle to achieve a pass rate let alone distinction. 

However, it never pays to limit others. If someone makes their racing pay then they are correct. Even if you can't understand their process or just have an idea it can't work doesn't mean you are correct. It is foolish to try and assess anyone without data. As the scientific quote details: without objective testing theories are only guess however good. Limit someone at your cost because they may give you a knowing smile and think I know what I'm saying for a fact, Bozo.