Sunday, 27 October 2019
Are You Confident Betting 2YO Horses On Heavy Going?
Every day it's raining. The weatherman calls it precipitation - I call it a pain in the arse!
Over the weekend, Newbury and Doncaster went amiss due to abandonments. The going stick went right up to the handle.
I'm not sure if it was a blessing or a curse. Do you like betting on very testing going? Betting on my niche of two-year-old horse racing it feels like hard work. It's like donning your wellington boots and literally getting stuck in the mud. The problem with betting on juvenile horse racing is the unknown about so many aspects of these young horses. Sure, you may be convinced on breeding the horse will run on the ground. But until it is proven, we can never be totally sure.
So should we bet on the testing ground?
I am careful. I always associate soft with big-priced winners. I'm not sure if that is statistically true. However, it always feels that way. It is enough for me to be extra careful with betting on horses at short odds. The trouble with favourite on testing going is that most trainers instruct the jockey to make the most of their experience. This makes perfect logic. But there's a problem with this approach.
Can you see what it could be?
The trouble with leading or racing prominently when racing on soft going is that many jockeys go a stride too fast. This is a disaster waiting to happen. If they go too fast for conditions the horse, however good, is unlikely to win. In fact, they are likely to tire quickly and fade out of contention.
When racing on the testing ground it is wise for a trainer to instruct the jockey to sit off the pace.
I saw a couple of examples of 2yo horses racing a stride too quick at Great Yarmouth. In fact, it was a couple of short-priced favourites. They looked to be going well until the furlong pole when they dropped back like they had been shot. Both finished down the field. I'm confident these horses will show better form on better conditions.
So I would always be careful when it's raining cats and dogs.
When betting on favourites you are chancing your luck with a double gamble. Not only winning the race but will the horse be given a poor ride or even go on the going?