Monday 19 December 2022

Monday's 2YO Racing Info (19th December)

12:50 Kempton - 

It looks a two horse race as far as the betting is concerned. Tagabawa looks good. I wouldn't worry about the penalty. Wigmore Street is a high stat horse if 11/4 and less sp and very high if 6/4 and less. For any debutante to beat a potentially classy winner is no easy task. There really isn't any value in either and in that sense it doesn't really matter which horse may win. Scenic is potentially value. The type of bet which is ideal for the exchanges really as you will get much bigger odds on the win bet. For example wit bookies it is 8/1 while it's 12/1 on the exchanges. Scenic may have a hope but I can't help thinking it will be a task to win against these two potentially smart horses. Gosden's debutante is about the only other hope Free Lovin' simply because he can win at big prices on debut and with those at the head of the market so strong, it may be pushed out in the betting. However, it looks a tough race to beat the two favourites and if Crisford's starts over 6/4 I would suspect the Godolphin horse will win. The only real value may be Scenic but in all honesty I would want about 20/1 on the exchanges and I'd still be hoping rather than confident. There looks little value with the favourites. 

1:20 Kempton - 

Banded race. Funny looking race. Dragon Ball Prince has been making hard work of winning (being placed even) and could be there to be shot at. I wouldn't be betting odds on. It doesn't look much of a race No great opinion but Balding's Green Machine could have a chance. He does well if his debutantes are priced about 7/1, although if short priced always seem to place but rarely win. A watching race for me.

5:30 Chelmsford - 

Very little value in the two favourites. Nice to see Maharajas Express make it two from two. Bluff isn't much of a price. A slow start on debut saw him along way off the pace. Not a bad looking horse, quite compact. Always a slight concern he will get a slow start today but should be wiser for the experience.Cowell has had a poor year with his two-year-olds (lack of numbers and talent) and has fair stats second time out if 13/2 and less sp. Although his horses either seem to win or unplaced. Not the type of horse I would be betting at relatively short odds but may play its part. 

6:30 Chelmsford - 

This is a big drop in class for Giant who ran well on debut. A strapping colt who, I imagine, will look head and shoulders above these physically. No real value at short odds although a horse which will take a lot of beating. Bonkersinabundnce and Scramble are closely matched. I think the drop back to 7f will benefit Varian's filly but losing four times doesn't fill me with confidence at relatively short odds. There's always a chance after a few hard races she will crack up and disappoint. On balance may shade Scramble. I do like Conrad Allen as a trainer (pity he doesn't get more horses) as he is capable and knows what he's doing. In fact, the owners of this horse had a winner back in the day called Taylor Quigley who won my brother and I a good few quid. Scramble looks professional and relaxed. The type to run to the line which may be a strength if the favourites lead. The bookies aren't giving much away on the top three in the betting. Holy Fire cost 15,000g and just 1,500g as a foal. Not bad owners Offthebridle Podcast and its not beyond the realms Fellowe's has picked this horse out as a hope. His debutantes have fair place stats if 10/1 and less sp. All in all an interesting but tricky race. I think the favourite will go very well but no price. Scramble may have ew claims but no real value. I couldn't bet on Bonkersinabundance because it just isn't going the right way. While Holy Fire would be a hit and hope. Would need to be ideally single figures and just not the type I would want to bet against the hot favourite.